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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Czech RepublicCzech Republic Business Confidence climbed to 100.2% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Czech Republic Business Confidence climbed to 100.2% in July 2026, up 0.4% from June's 99.8% reading. The reading matched the 100.0% consensus. Business Confidence has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 99.4%, vs 100.2% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 72nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
100.2
Actual
100
Consensus
99.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.82 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 100.45
Actual: 100.2
Error: +0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/CZK | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Czech Republic) was reported at 100.2% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 100% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 99.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 100.36%, ranging from 98% to 103.4% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 99.67%, up from the prior three at 99.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.43%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.02%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 97.83%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/CZK (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.83%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 24, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Business Confidence - CZ
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About Business Confidence — Czech Republic
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 100.2 %, consensus 100 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 99.8 %. Before that (May 2026): 99 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/CZK (Bullish EUR, r=0.69) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CZ Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | CZ | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.10 | Low |
| 07:00 | CZ | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.45 | Low |
| 07:00 | CZ | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.45 | Low |
| 07:00 | CZ | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.10 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | CZ | M3 Money Supply YoY | 6.3 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 5.55 | Low |