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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Czech RepublicCzech Republic Business Confidence fell to 96.6% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Czech Republic Business Confidence fell to 96.6% in October 2026, down 1.8% from September's 98.4% reading. The reading matched the 98.0% consensus. Business Confidence has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 99.3%, vs 99.67% in the prior 3-month window. Business Confidence is now the lowest in 17 months.
Latest Release
96.6
Actual
98
Consensus
98.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.76 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 97.5
Actual: 96.6
Error: +0.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/CZK | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Czech Republic) was reported at 96.6% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 98% by 1.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of 98.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 99.23%, ranging from 96.6% to 100.4% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 98.4%, down from the prior three at 99.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.16%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.1%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 98.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.76%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 24, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Business Confidence - CZ
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About Business Confidence — Czech Republic
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 96.6 %, consensus 98 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 98.4 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 100.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100, r=0.58) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CZ Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | CZ | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.5 | 53.3 | 52.45 | Low | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | CZ | Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.5 | 0.45 | Low | |
| 08:00 | CZ | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low | |