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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Czech RepublicCzech Republic Business Confidence fell to 98.4% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Czech Republic Business Confidence fell to 98.4% in September 2026, down 1.8% from August's 100.2% reading. The reading matched the 100.2% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 3.2%. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 100.2%, vs 99.73% in the prior 3-month window. Business Confidence is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
98.4
Actual
100.2
Consensus
100.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.8 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 100.2
Actual: 98.4
Error: +1.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/CZK | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Czech Republic) was reported at 98.4% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 100.2% by 1.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of 100.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 99.91%, ranging from 98% to 103.4% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 99.6%, down from the prior three at 99.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.39%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.9%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 98.93%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/CZK (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, positively correlated (Bullish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.8%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 26, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Business Confidence - CZ
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About Business Confidence — Czech Republic
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 98.4 %, consensus 100.2 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 100.2 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 100.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/CZK (Bullish EUR, r=0.65) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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