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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Czech RepublicCzech Republic Inflation Rate MoM fell to -0.3% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Czech Republic Inflation Rate MoM fell to -0.3% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.4% from May's 0.1% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.38%. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.25%, vs 0.57% in the prior 3-month window. Inflation Rate MoM is now the lowest in 8 months.
Latest Release
-0.3
Actual
-0.3
Consensus
0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.05 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -0.36
Actual: -0.3
Error: -0.06
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate MoM (Czech Republic) was reported at -0.3% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of -0.3% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.09%, ranging from -0.6% to 0.9% across 20 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.17%, down from the prior three at 0.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.44%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.46%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate MoM has averaged -0.15%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 5, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Inflation Rate MoM - CZ
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About Inflation Rate MoM — Czech Republic
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services in a given economy from one month to the next. It is a key measure of inflation and provides insight into the rate at which prices are rising or falling, which can impact consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -0.3 %, consensus -0.3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.3 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CZ Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | CZ | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.10 | Low |
| 07:00 | CZ | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.45 | Low |
| 07:00 | CZ | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.45 | Low |
| 07:00 | CZ | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.10 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | CZ | M3 Money Supply YoY | 6.3 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 5.55 | Low |