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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Czech RepublicCzech Republic Unemployment Rate held to 4.8% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Czech Republic Unemployment Rate held to 4.8% in June 2026, released July 2026. The reading matched expectations. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.6%. Over the past 3 months, Unemployment Rate averaged 4.85%, vs 5.07% in the prior 3-month window. Unemployment Rate is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
4.8
Actual
4.8
Consensus
4.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.05 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 4.83
Actual: 4.8
Error: +0.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/CZK | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (Czech Republic) was reported at 4.8% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of 4.8% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.75%, ranging from 4.4% to 5.2% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.83%, down from the prior three at 5.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.24%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.22%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate has averaged 4.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with DAX (Bullish DAX). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, positively correlated (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Unemployment Rate - CZ
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About Unemployment Rate — Czech Republic
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 4.8 %, consensus 4.8 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 4.8 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 4.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with DAX (Bullish DAX, r=0.62) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CZ Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:30 | CZ | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | 53.5 | 54.25 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | CZ | Retail Sales MoM | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 07:00 | CZ | Inflation Rate YoY | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.60 | Low | |
| 07:00 | CZ | Retail Sales YoY | 4.7 | 4 | 4.00 | Low | |
| 07:00 | CZ | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.3 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Low | |
| Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | CZ | Industrial Production YoY | 2 | 1.7 | 1.70 | Low | |
| 07:00 | CZ | Construction Output YoY | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 07:00 | CZ | Industrial Production MoM | -0.4 | -0.6 | -0.60 | Low | |
| 07:00 | CZ | Balance of Trade | 9.9 | 17.4 | 17.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CZ | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | Low | |