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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Balance of Trade fell to 19.5B in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Germany Balance of Trade fell to 19.5B in August 2026, released October 2026, down 2.1B from July's 21.6B reading. The reading matched the 19B consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 17.05B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 18.35B, vs 15.97B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 72nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
19.5
Actual
19
Consensus
21.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.86 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 19.83
Actual: 19.5
Error: +0.32
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Germany) was reported at 19.50 billion in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 19.00 billion by 0.50 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 21.60 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 17.57 billion, ranging from 13.10 billion to 21.30 billion across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 18.73 billion, up from the prior three at 18.27 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.75 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.41 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 19.73 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with DAX (Bullish DAX). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, positively correlated (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.86 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Oct 30) and Inflation Rate MoM (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Balance of Trade - DE
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About Balance of Trade — Germany
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 19.5 B, consensus 19 B. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 21.3 B. Before that (Jun 2026): 15.4 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with DAX (Bullish DAX, r=0.52) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | DE | Import Prices MoM | 2.1 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | DE | Import Prices YoY | 10.4 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 10.35 | Low |
| 08:55 | DE | Unemployment Rate | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.43 | High |
| 08:55 | DE | Unemployed Persons | 3.016 | 3.012 | 3.017 | 3.02 | Medium |
| 08:55 | DE | Employment Change | 4 | 12 | 5 | 5.00 | High |
| 09:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 09:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.2 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.15 | High |