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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Balance of Trade climbed to 19.1B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Germany Balance of Trade climbed to 19.1B in May 2026, released July 2026, up 4.4B from April's 14.7B reading. The print exceeded the 14.8B consensus by 4.3B. Balance of Trade has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 14.4B, vs 19.37B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 67th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
19.1
Actual
14.8
Consensus
14.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.15 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 14.55
Actual: 19.1
Error: -4.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Germany) was reported at 19.10 billion in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 14.80 billion by 4.30 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 14.70 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 16.52 billion, ranging from 13.10 billion to 21.20 billion across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 18.27 billion, up from the prior three at 15.70 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.39 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.66 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 20.80 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with DAX (Bullish DAX). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, positively correlated (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.15 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Jul 31) and Employment Change (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - DE
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About Balance of Trade — Germany
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 19.1 B, consensus 14.8 B. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 14.5 B. Before that (Mar 2026): 14.3 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with DAX (Bullish DAX, r=0.73) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.75 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.75 | High |
| 12:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | HICP MoM | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | HICP YoY | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | CPI MoM | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.75 | High |