Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Balance of Trade fell to 14.5B in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Germany Balance of Trade fell to 14.5B in April 2026, released June 2026, down 0.2B from March's 14.7B reading. The reading matched the 15B consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 16.94B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 17.05B, vs 17.13B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 15th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
14.5
Actual
15
Consensus
14.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.5 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 15
Actual: 14.5
Error: +0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | INDEX | Bullish DAX | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.64 | INDEX | Bullish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | INDEX | Bullish FTSE 100 | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Germany) was reported at 14.50 billion in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 15.00 billion by 0.50 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 14.70 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 16.44 billion, ranging from 13.10 billion to 21.20 billion across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 17.60 billion, up from the prior three at 15.73 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.31 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.24 billion). In June readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 17.07 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with DAX (Bullish DAX). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, positively correlated (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.50 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Wholesale Prices MoM (Jun 15) and Wholesale Prices YoY (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
SHARE
Balance of Trade - DE
Loading chart data...
About Balance of Trade — Germany
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 14.5 B, consensus 15 B. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 14.3 B. Before that (Feb 2026): 19.8 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with DAX (Bullish DAX, r=0.69) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.