Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Balance of Trade climbed to 21.3B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Germany Balance of Trade climbed to 21.3B in July 2026, released September 2026, up 5.9B from June's 15.4B reading. The print exceeded the 16B consensus by 5.3B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 16.52B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 17.25B, vs 16.2B in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 22 months.
Latest Release
21.3
Actual
16
Consensus
15.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.24 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 16.58
Actual: 21.3
Error: -4.73
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Germany) was reported at 21.30 billion in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 16.00 billion by 5.30 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 15.40 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 17.31 billion, ranging from 13.10 billion to 21.30 billion across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 18.60 billion, up from the prior three at 17.60 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.66 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.83 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 17.60 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with DAX (Bullish DAX). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, positively correlated (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.24 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 8, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Wholesale Prices MoM (Sep 15) and Wholesale Prices YoY (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
SHARE
Balance of Trade - DE
Loading chart data...
About Balance of Trade — Germany
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 21.3 B, consensus 16 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 15.4 B. Before that (May 2026): 19.1 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with DAX (Bullish DAX, r=0.51) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | DE | Wholesale Prices MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | DE | Wholesale Prices YoY | 5.3 | 6.2 | 6.20 | Medium | |
| 09:00 | DE | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | 34.2 | 37 | 45.25 | High | |
| 09:00 | DE | ZEW Current Conditions | -61.1 | -52.2 | -53.70 | Low | |
| 09:00 | DE | Economic Sentiment | 34.2 | 42.7 | 50.85 | Medium | |