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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Balance of Trade fell to 15.4B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Germany Balance of Trade fell to 15.4B in June 2026, released August 2026, down 3.9B from May's 19.3B reading. The reading missed the 17.4B consensus by 2.0B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 16.77B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 16.8B, vs 18.43B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 33rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
15.4
Actual
17.4
Consensus
19.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.24 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 18.35
Actual: 15.4
Error: +2.95
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Germany) was reported at 15.40 billion in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 17.40 billion by 2.00 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 19.30 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 16.58 billion, ranging from 13.10 billion to 21.20 billion across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 16.33 billion, down from the prior three at 17.13 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.35 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.71 billion). In August readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 16.90 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with DAX (Bullish DAX). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, positively correlated (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.24 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 8, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Wholesale Prices MoM (Aug 14) and Wholesale Prices YoY (Aug 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Balance of Trade - DE
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About Balance of Trade — Germany
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 15.4 B, consensus 17.4 B. Prior reading (May 2026): 19.1 B. Before that (Apr 2026): 14.5 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with DAX (Bullish DAX, r=0.73) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | DE | Current Account | 10.4 | 16.2 | 18.80 | Low | |
| Friday, August 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | DE | Wholesale Prices MoM | -0.7 | 0.4 | 0.90 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | DE | Wholesale Prices YoY | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.95 | Medium | |