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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Consumer Confidence fell to -29.6% in August 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Germany Consumer Confidence fell to -29.6% in August 2025, released July 2026, down 0.3% from July's -29.3% reading. The reading matched the -28.5% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -25.89%. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Confidence averaged -30.77%, vs -25.6% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 14th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-29.6
Actual
-28.5
Consensus
-29.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.96 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -27.85
Actual: -29.6
Error: +1.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Confidence (Germany) was reported at -29.6% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -28.5% by 1.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of -29.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -25.95%, ranging from -29.8% to -22.3% across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -29.53%, down from the prior three at -25.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.67%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.96%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.96%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Aug 3) and Retail Sales YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Consumer Confidence - DE
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About Consumer Confidence — Germany
DEFINITION
Index The Consumer Confidence Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the state of the economy. It is based on surveys and data collected from a representative sample of households, and is used by economists and investors to gauge consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. A higher index value indicates a positive outlook, while a lower value suggests a more negative sentiment. This index is a valuable tool for businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2025): actual -29.6 %, consensus -28.5 %. Prior reading (Jul 2025): -29.2 %. Before that (Jun 2025): -29.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.53) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.75 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.75 | High |
| 12:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | HICP MoM | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | HICP YoY | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | CPI MoM | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.75 | High |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:55 | DE | Unemployment Rate | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.35 | Medium |
| 07:55 | DE | Employment Change | 6 | -1 | 5 | 5.50 | Medium |
| 07:55 | DE | Unemployed Persons | 2.993 | 2.987 | 2.989 | 2.99 | Medium |