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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Consumer Confidence climbed to -26.6% in September 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Germany Consumer Confidence climbed to -26.6% in September 2025, released August 2026, up 2.8% from August's -29.4% reading. The print exceeded the -29.6% consensus by 3.0%. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 3.0%. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Confidence averaged -29.4%, vs -30.37% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 34th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-26.6
Actual
-29.6
Consensus
-29.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.96 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -30.28
Actual: -26.6
Error: -3.68
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Confidence (Germany) was reported at -26.6% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of -29.6% by 3%. The reading rose from the previous value of -29.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -26.23%, ranging from -29.8% to -22.3% across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -28.47%, down from the prior three at -27.5%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.57%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.91%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.96%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Wholesale Prices MoM (Sep 15) and Wholesale Prices YoY (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Consumer Confidence - DE
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About Consumer Confidence — Germany
DEFINITION
Index The Consumer Confidence Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the state of the economy. It is based on surveys and data collected from a representative sample of households, and is used by economists and investors to gauge consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. A higher index value indicates a positive outlook, while a lower value suggests a more negative sentiment. This index is a valuable tool for businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2025): actual -26.6 %, consensus -29.6 %. Prior reading (Aug 2025): -29.6 %. Before that (Jul 2025): -29.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.45) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | DE | Wholesale Prices MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | DE | Wholesale Prices YoY | 5.3 | 6.2 | 6.20 | Medium | |
| 09:00 | DE | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | 34.2 | 37 | 45.25 | High | |
| 09:00 | DE | ZEW Current Conditions | -61.1 | -52.2 | -53.70 | Low | |
| 09:00 | DE | Economic Sentiment | 34.2 | 42.7 | 50.85 | Medium | |