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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Current Account fell to 10.4B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Germany Current Account fell to 10.4B in May 2026, released July 2026, down 6.2B from April's 16.6B reading. The reading missed the 15.1B consensus by 4.7B. Current Account has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Current Account averaged 18.7B, vs 18.86B in the prior 3-month window. Current Account is now the lowest in 8 months.
Latest Release
10.4
Actual
15.1
Consensus
16.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.59 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 14.8
Actual: 10.4
Error: +4.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Current Account (Germany) was reported at 10.40 billion in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 15.10 billion by 4.70 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 16.60 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 15.56 billion, ranging from 8.30 billion to 23.60 billion across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 15.93 billion, down from the prior three at 16.10 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.93 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 6.70 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Current Account has averaged 12.83 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.59 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Aug 3) and Retail Sales YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Current Account - DE
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About Current Account — Germany
DEFINITION
The Current Account is a financial indicator that measures a country's trade balance, including the value of goods and services exported and imported, as well as income received and payments made to other countries. It provides insight into a nation's economic health and its ability to pay for imports and service its debt. A positive current account balance indicates a surplus, while a negative balance indicates a deficit. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact a country's currency value and overall economic stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 10.4 B, consensus 15.1 B. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 13.8 B. Before that (Mar 2026): 23.6 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.75 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.75 | High |
| 12:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | HICP MoM | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | HICP YoY | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | CPI MoM | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.75 | High |