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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Exports MoM fell to -0.8% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Germany Exports MoM fell to -0.8% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 1.7% from June's 0.9% reading. The reading missed the 0.0% consensus by 0.8%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.48%. Over the past 3 months, Exports MoM averaged 0.9%, vs 1.67% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 33rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.8
Actual
0
Consensus
0.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.91 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.48
Actual: -0.8
Error: +1.27
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports MoM (Germany) was reported at -0.8% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0% by 0.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.08%, ranging from -2.5% to 4% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.33%, down from the prior three at 0.87%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.85%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.87%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Exports MoM has averaged 0.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.91%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 8, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Wholesale Prices MoM (Sep 15) and Wholesale Prices YoY (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Exports MoM - DE
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About Exports MoM — Germany
DEFINITION
Exports MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in a country's total exports from one month to the next. It is used by economists and investors to track the performance of a country's international trade and can provide insights into the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports MoM indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and a stronger currency. Conversely, a negative change may suggest a decline in exports, which can have a negative impact on a country's economy. This indicator is often closely monitored by policymakers and businesses to make informed decisions about trade and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.8 %, consensus 0 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0.9 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.71) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | DE | Wholesale Prices MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | DE | Wholesale Prices YoY | 5.3 | 6.2 | 6.20 | Medium | |
| 09:00 | DE | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | 34.2 | 37 | 45.25 | High | |
| 09:00 | DE | ZEW Current Conditions | -61.1 | -52.2 | -53.70 | Low | |
| 09:00 | DE | Economic Sentiment | 34.2 | 42.7 | 50.85 | Medium | |