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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Exports MoM fell to -0.8% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Germany Exports MoM fell to -0.8% in August 2026, released October 2026, down 0.3% from July's -0.5% reading. The reading missed the 0.8% consensus by 1.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.35%. Over the past 3 months, Exports MoM averaged 0.05%, vs 0.77% in the prior 3-month window. Exports MoM is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
-0.8
Actual
0.8
Consensus
-0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.05 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.78
Actual: -0.8
Error: +1.58
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.74 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports MoM (Germany) was reported at -0.8% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.8% by 1.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.04%, ranging from -2.5% to 4% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.23%, down from the prior three at -0.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.86%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.82%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Exports MoM has averaged 0%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Oct 30) and Inflation Rate MoM (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Exports MoM - DE
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About Exports MoM — Germany
DEFINITION
Exports MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in a country's total exports from one month to the next. It is used by economists and investors to track the performance of a country's international trade and can provide insights into the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports MoM indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and a stronger currency. Conversely, a negative change may suggest a decline in exports, which can have a negative impact on a country's economy. This indicator is often closely monitored by policymakers and businesses to make informed decisions about trade and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -0.8 %, consensus 0.8 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -0.8 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.74) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | DE | Import Prices MoM | 2.1 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | DE | Import Prices YoY | 10.4 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 10.35 | Low |
| 08:55 | DE | Unemployment Rate | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.43 | High |
| 08:55 | DE | Unemployed Persons | 3.016 | 3.012 | 3.017 | 3.02 | Medium |
| 08:55 | DE | Employment Change | 4 | 12 | 5 | 5.00 | High |
| 09:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 09:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.2 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.15 | High |