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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Gross Domestic Product YoY held to 0.4% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Germany Gross Domestic Product YoY held to 0.4% in January 2026, released May 2026. The print exceeded the 0.3% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.21%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product YoY averaged 0.37%, vs 0.35% in the prior 3-month window. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the highest in 15 months.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 10 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.3
Actual: 0.4
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.89 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | INDEX | Bearish FTSE 100 | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Germany) was reported at 0.4% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.34%, ranging from 0.2% to 0.4% across 7 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.4%, up from the prior three at 0.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Wholesale Prices MoM (Jun 15) and Wholesale Prices YoY (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - DE
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Germany
DEFINITION
Germany's Gross Domestic Product YoY rose to 0.40% in May, matching the previous month's level and beating the 0.30% estimate. April's reading was 0.30%, indicating a rebound after a slight dip. The steady growth supports current market pricing and aligns with the central bank's cautious stance. Updated 5/22/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.3 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.89) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.