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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany HCOB Construction PMI fell to 43.7 in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Germany HCOB Construction PMI fell to 43.7 in February 2026, released March 2026, down 1 from January's 44.7 reading. The reading matched the 45.4 consensus. HCOB Construction PMI has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, HCOB Construction PMI averaged 47.5, vs 44.73 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 58th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
43.7
Actual
45.4
Consensus
44.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.73
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 44.78
Actual: 43.7
Error: +1.07
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HCOB Construction PMI (Germany) was reported at 43.70 in March 2026. This missed the market consensus of 45.40 by 1.70. The reading fell from the previous value of 44.70. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 46.23, up from the prior three at 44.73. In March readings over the past 3 years, HCOB Construction PMI has averaged 41.33.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.73.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Wholesale Prices YoY (Oct 14) and Wholesale Prices MoM (Oct 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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HCOB Construction PMI - DE
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About HCOB Construction PMI — Germany
DEFINITION
HCOB Construction PMI is a leading economic indicator that measures the level of activity in the construction sector. It provides valuable insights into the health of the construction industry, including trends in new orders, employment, and business expectations. This indicator is widely used by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions about the overall state of the economy and the construction sector. With its timely and accurate data, HCOB Construction PMI is a crucial tool for monitoring and forecasting economic growth and identifying potential risks in the construction industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 43.7, consensus 45.4. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 44.7. Before that (Dec 2025): 50.3.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.66) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | DE | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low |
| 06:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 06:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low |
| 06:00 | DE | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | DE | Current Account | 10.3 | 21.8 | 17.2 | 13.75 | Low |
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | DE | Wholesale Prices YoY | 6.8 | 7 | 6.35 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | DE | Wholesale Prices MoM | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.10 | Medium | |