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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany HCOB Services PMI climbed to 53.5 in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Germany HCOB Services PMI climbed to 53.5 in February 2026, released March 2026, up 1.1 from January's 52.4 reading. The reading matched the 53.4 consensus. HCOB Services PMI has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, HCOB Services PMI averaged 52.78, vs 53.24 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 86th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
53.5
Actual
53.4
Consensus
52.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.78
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 53.57
Actual: 53.5
Error: +0.07
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HCOB Services PMI (Germany) was reported at 53.50 in March 2026. This beat the market consensus of 53.40 by 0.10. The reading rose from the previous value of 52.40. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 52.37, ranging from 49.30 to 54.60 across 13 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 53.10, up from the prior three at 52.80. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.54) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.58). In March readings over the past 3 years, HCOB Services PMI has averaged 50.58.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, positively correlated (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.78.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Aug 3) and Retail Sales YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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HCOB Services PMI - DE
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About HCOB Services PMI — Germany
DEFINITION
HCOB Services PMI is a key economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector in the HCOB (hypothetical country of business). It provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the services industry, which includes sectors such as healthcare, education, transportation, and hospitality. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it can help forecast economic trends and inform decision-making. A higher PMI reading indicates expansion in the services sector, while a lower reading suggests contraction. Overall, the HCOB Services PMI is an important tool for assessing the economic landscape and making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 53.5, consensus 53.4. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 53.4. Before that (Jan 2026): 52.4.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.51) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.75 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.75 | High |
| 12:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | HICP MoM | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | HICP YoY | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | CPI MoM | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.75 | High |