Loading page content
Data from ZEW / IFO / GfK. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Ifo Expectations climbed to 83.8 in May 2026
ZEW / IFO / GfKMonthlyReleased May 2026
Germany Ifo Expectations climbed to 83.8 in May 2026, up 0.3 from April's 83.5 reading. The reading matched the 83.5 consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 89.4. Over the past 3 months, Ifo Expectations averaged 86.6, vs 89.93 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 6th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
83.8
Actual
83.5
Consensus
83.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.75
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 83.68
Actual: 83.8
Error: -0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.86 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Ifo Expectations (Germany) was reported at 83.80 in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 83.50 by 0.30. The reading rose from the previous value of 83.50. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 89.49, ranging from 83.80 to 91.60 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 86.77, down from the prior three at 89.93. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.31) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.46). In May readings over the past 3 years, Ifo Expectations has averaged 87.70.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.75.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Wholesale Prices MoM (Jun 15) and Wholesale Prices YoY (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
SHARE
Ifo Expectations - DE
Loading chart data...
About Ifo Expectations — Germany
DEFINITION
Ifo Expectations is a leading economic indicator that measures the sentiment and outlook of businesses in Germany. It is based on a monthly survey of over 9,000 companies and provides valuable insights into future economic trends and business confidence. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can provide early indications of potential changes in the German economy. With its reliable and timely data, Ifo Expectations is a crucial tool for making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 83.8, consensus 83.5. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 83.3. Before that (Mar 2026): 86.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.86) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.