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Data from ZEW / IFO / GfK. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Ifo Expectations climbed to 86.7 in July 2026
ZEW / IFO / GfKMonthlyReleased July 2026
Germany Ifo Expectations climbed to 86.7 in July 2026, up 2.4 from June's 84.3 reading. The reading matched the 84.8 consensus. Ifo Expectations has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Ifo Expectations averaged 83.95, vs 86.6 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 35th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
86.7
Actual
84.8
Consensus
84.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.95
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 84.65
Actual: 86.7
Error: -2.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.79 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Ifo Expectations (Germany) was reported at 86.70 in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 84.80 by 1.90. The reading rose from the previous value of 84.30. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 88.53, ranging from 83.80 to 91.60 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 84.87, down from the prior three at 88.67. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.74) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.01). In July readings over the past 3 years, Ifo Expectations has averaged 88.10.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.95.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Jul 31) and Employment Change (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Ifo Expectations - DE
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About Ifo Expectations — Germany
DEFINITION
Ifo Expectations is a leading economic indicator that measures the sentiment and outlook of businesses in Germany. It is based on a monthly survey of over 9,000 companies and provides valuable insights into future economic trends and business confidence. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can provide early indications of potential changes in the German economy. With its reliable and timely data, Ifo Expectations is a crucial tool for making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 86.7, consensus 84.8. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 84.1. Before that (May 2026): 83.8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.79) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.75 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.75 | High |
| 12:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | HICP MoM | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | HICP YoY | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | CPI MoM | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.75 | High |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:55 | DE | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.30 | Medium | |
| 07:55 | DE | Employment Change | -1 | 5 | 5.00 | Medium | |
| 07:55 | DE | Unemployed Persons | 2.984 | 2.989 | 2.99 | Medium | |