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Data from Destatis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Industrial Production MoM fell to -1.1% in July 2026
DestatisMonthlyReleased September 2026
Germany Industrial Production MoM fell to -1.1% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 1.1% from June's 0.0% reading. The reading missed the 0.1% consensus by 1.2%. Industrial Production MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged 0.55%, vs -0.2% in the prior 3-month window. Industrial Production MoM is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
-1.1
Actual
0.1
Consensus
0
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.11 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.23
Actual: -1.1
Error: +1.33
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (Germany) was reported at -1.1% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.1% by 1.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.24%, ranging from -4.3% to 1.8% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0%, up from the prior three at -0.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.72%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.98%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged -0.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.11%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Wholesale Prices MoM (Sep 15) and Wholesale Prices YoY (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - DE
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About Industrial Production MoM — Germany
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -1.1 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR, r=0.47) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | DE | Wholesale Prices MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.60 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | DE | Wholesale Prices YoY | 5.3 | 6.2 | 5.35 | Medium | |
| 09:00 | DE | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | 34.2 | 37 | 45.25 | High | |
| 09:00 | DE | ZEW Current Conditions | -61.1 | -52.2 | -53.70 | Low | |
| 09:00 | DE | Economic Sentiment | 34.2 | 42.7 | 50.85 | Medium | |