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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany New Car Registrations YoY fell to -6.6% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2026
Germany New Car Registrations YoY fell to -6.6% in January 2026, released February 2026, down 16.3% from December's 9.7% reading. The reading missed the 3.4% consensus by 10.0%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 6.72%. Over the past 3 months, New Car Registrations YoY averaged 5.31%, vs 9.08% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 15th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-6.6
Actual
3.4
Consensus
9.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.41 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 4.43
Actual: -6.6
Error: +11.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Car Registrations YoY (Germany) was reported at -6.6% in February 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 9.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through February 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.63%, ranging from -6.6% to 12.8% across 15 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -6.6%, down from the prior three at 7.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.53%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 7.24%). In February readings over the past 3 years, New Car Registrations YoY has averaged -1.05%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.41%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Aug 3) and Retail Sales YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
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New Car Registrations YoY - DE
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About New Car Registrations YoY — Germany
DEFINITION
New Car Registrations YoY (Year over Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the number of new cars registered in a given period compared to the same period in the previous year. This data is often used by economists and investors to assess the health of the automotive industry and consumer spending habits. A higher YoY percentage indicates an increase in new car sales, while a lower percentage suggests a decline. This indicator can provide valuable insights into the overall economic growth and consumer confidence in a particular country or region.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 3.8 %, consensus -4.4 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -6.6 %. Before that (Jan 2026): -6.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.55) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.75 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.75 | High |
| 12:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | HICP MoM | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | HICP YoY | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | CPI MoM | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.75 | High |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:55 | DE | Unemployment Rate | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.35 | Medium |
| 07:55 | DE | Employment Change | 6 | -1 | 5 | 5.50 | Medium |
| 07:55 | DE | Unemployed Persons | 2.993 | 2.987 | 2.989 | 2.99 | Medium |