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Data from Destatis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Retail Sales MoM fell to -1.1% in June 2026
DestatisMonthlyReleased August 2026
Germany Retail Sales MoM fell to -1.1% in June 2026, released August 2026, down 2.3% from May's 1.2% reading. The reading missed the -0.5% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.33%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales MoM averaged 0.4%, vs -1.17% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 29th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1.1
Actual
-0.5
Consensus
1.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.61 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -0.18
Actual: -1.1
Error: +0.93
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (Germany) was reported at -1.1% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.5% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.37%, ranging from -1.5% to 1.1% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.1%, up from the prior three at -0.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.67%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.14%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales MoM has averaged -1.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.61%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Wholesale Prices MoM (Aug 14) and Wholesale Prices YoY (Aug 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Retail Sales MoM - DE
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About Retail Sales MoM — Germany
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -1.1 %, consensus -0.5 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 1.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): -0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/JPY (Bullish EUR, r=0.54) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | DE | Current Account | 10.4 | 16.2 | 18.80 | Low | |