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Data from ZEW / IFO / GfK. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany ZEW Current Conditions climbed to -77.6 in July 2026
ZEW / IFO / GfKMonthlyReleased July 2026
Germany ZEW Current Conditions climbed to -77.6 in July 2026, up 3.4 from June's -81 reading. The reading matched the -77.8 consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -73.18. Over the past 3 months, ZEW Current Conditions averaged -79.4, vs -67.5 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 60th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-77.6
Actual
-77.8
Consensus
-81
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.21
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -78.63
Actual: -77.6
Error: -1.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.79 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ZEW Current Conditions (Germany) was reported at -77.60 in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -77.80 by 0.20. The reading rose from the previous value of -81.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -74.78, ranging from -81.00 to -62.90 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -78.80, down from the prior three at -67.17. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.05) is lower than the prior year (σ 9.16). In July readings over the past 3 years, ZEW Current Conditions has averaged -68.67.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.21.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Aug 3) and Retail Sales YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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ZEW Current Conditions - DE
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About ZEW Current Conditions — Germany
DEFINITION
ZEW Current Conditions is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the current economic situation in Germany. It is based on a monthly survey of financial experts and provides valuable insights into the country's economic performance. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it can help inform decisions and strategies related to the German economy. With its timely and reliable data, ZEW Current Conditions is a crucial tool for understanding the current state of the German economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -77.6, consensus -77.8. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -81. Before that (May 2026): -77.8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.79) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.75 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.75 | High |
| 12:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | HICP MoM | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | HICP YoY | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | CPI MoM | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.75 | High |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:55 | DE | Unemployment Rate | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.35 | Medium |
| 07:55 | DE | Employment Change | 6 | -1 | 5 | 5.50 | Medium |
| 07:55 | DE | Unemployed Persons | 2.993 | 2.987 | 2.989 | 2.99 | Medium |