Denmark’s Consumer Confidence for November 2025 Shows Modest Recovery Amid Lingering Caution
Key Takeaways: Denmark’s Consumer Confidence index for November 2025 improved to -17.30, beating expectations of -18.00 and rebounding from October’s -20.10. This marks a partial reversal of a four-month decline, though sentiment remains below the 12-month average of -17.40. The data suggests cautious optimism among Danish consumers amid mixed macroeconomic signals, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and evolving monetary policy. Forward-looking risks include inflation persistence and external shocks, while fiscal support and stable financial markets provide some buffer.
Table of Contents
Denmark’s Consumer Confidence for November 2025 registered at -17.30, improving from October’s -20.10 and surpassing the consensus estimate of -18.00, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This marks a notable rebound after four consecutive months of declining sentiment, reflecting a tentative easing of consumer concerns amid a complex macroeconomic backdrop.
Drivers this month
- Improved labor market conditions with unemployment steady at 4.20% in November.
- Moderation in inflation pressures, with CPI rising 2.10% YoY, down from 2.50% in October.
- Stable retail sales growth of 0.30% MoM, supporting household spending.
Policy pulse
The Danish central bank maintained its key policy rate at 1.75% in early December, signaling a cautious stance amid inflation moderation but persistent global uncertainties. Consumer confidence remains below neutral (0), indicating ongoing sensitivity to inflation and geopolitical risks.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The DKK strengthened modestly against the EUR by 0.15% in the hour following the release, reflecting improved sentiment. Danish 2-year government bond yields edged down 3 basis points, signaling slightly reduced risk premia.
Consumer confidence is a leading indicator of household spending, which accounts for roughly 55% of Denmark’s GDP. The November 2025 reading of -17.30 compares favorably to October’s -20.10 and is close to the 12-month average of -17.40, suggesting stabilization after a period of weakening sentiment.
Historical context
- February 2025: -14.50 (peak optimism in past year)
- May 2025: -18.40 (mid-year dip amid inflation concerns)
- October 2025: -19.50 (prelude to November’s rebound)
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The Danish central bank’s steady policy rate and moderate inflation have helped ease financial conditions. The 3-month interbank rate held near 1.80%, while credit spreads on Danish corporate bonds narrowed by 5 basis points in November, supporting consumer credit availability.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal policy remains supportive, with the government maintaining expansionary measures including targeted subsidies and tax relief for low-income households. The 2025 budget deficit is projected at 1.80% of GDP, slightly above the EU average but manageable given Denmark’s strong fiscal position.
What This Chart Tells Us
The upward trend in November signals improving consumer mood, likely driven by easing inflation and stable employment. However, the index remains negative, indicating persistent caution. This suggests consumer spending growth may continue but at a moderate pace, with upside risks tied to further inflation relief and downside risks from external shocks.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/DKK dipped 0.15% post-release, reflecting improved confidence. Danish 2-year yields declined 3 basis points, while the OMX Copenhagen 20 index rose 0.40%, indicating positive investor sentiment.
Looking ahead, Denmark’s consumer confidence trajectory will hinge on several macro factors. Inflation is expected to moderate further, with the central bank projecting a decline to 1.80% by mid-2026. However, global geopolitical tensions, particularly in Eastern Europe, pose downside risks to energy prices and supply chains.
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
- Inflation falls below 2%, boosting real incomes.
- Labor market tightens, reducing unemployment below 4%.
- Fiscal stimulus extended, supporting consumption.
- Consumer confidence rises above -10 by Q2 2026.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Inflation stabilizes around 2%, maintaining purchasing power.
- Unemployment steady near 4.20%.
- Fiscal policy remains neutral.
- Consumer confidence hovers near current levels (-15 to -18) through mid-2026.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical shocks trigger energy price spikes.
- Inflation reaccelerates above 3%, eroding real incomes.
- Labor market weakens, unemployment rises above 5%.
- Consumer confidence falls below -25, dampening spending.
Denmark’s November 2025 Consumer Confidence data from the Sigmanomics database reveals a modest but meaningful rebound in sentiment. While consumers remain cautious, the improvement suggests resilience amid inflation easing and stable labor markets. Policymakers should monitor inflation dynamics and geopolitical developments closely, as these will shape consumer behavior and, by extension, economic growth in 2026.
Financial markets have responded positively to the data, reflecting a tempered risk environment. However, the persistent negative confidence index underscores the need for continued fiscal and monetary vigilance to support household spending and economic stability.
Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence is a critical barometer for Denmark’s economic health, influencing currency, equity, and bond markets. The following symbols historically track shifts in Danish consumer sentiment and macroeconomic conditions:
- EURDKK – The Danish krone’s exchange rate against the euro is sensitive to domestic economic sentiment and monetary policy expectations.
- OMXC20 – Denmark’s benchmark stock index, reflecting investor confidence tied to consumer spending trends.
- USDSEK – While Swedish krona is a neighboring currency, shifts here often correlate with regional consumer confidence and risk appetite.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reflects broader risk sentiment, which can be influenced by consumer confidence trends.
- NOVO-B – A major Danish pharmaceutical stock, sensitive to domestic economic conditions and consumer health spending.
FAQs
- What does Denmark’s Consumer Confidence index measure?
- The index gauges household sentiment regarding economic conditions, influencing spending and saving behaviors.
- How does the November 2025 reading compare to previous months?
- November’s -17.30 marks an improvement from October’s -20.10 and aligns closely with the 12-month average of -17.40, indicating stabilization.
- Why is consumer confidence important for Denmark’s economy?
- Consumer confidence drives household consumption, which accounts for over half of Denmark’s GDP, impacting overall economic growth.
In summary, Denmark’s November 2025 Consumer Confidence data points to a cautious but improving consumer outlook. This trend supports a moderate growth scenario for the Danish economy, contingent on stable inflation and geopolitical developments.
Monitoring this indicator alongside monetary and fiscal policy will be essential for anticipating shifts in economic momentum in the coming months.
EURDKK – Danish krone exchange rate sensitive to consumer sentiment and monetary policy.
OMXC20 – Denmark’s main stock index, tracks economic and consumer confidence.
USDSEK – Regional currency pair reflecting Nordic economic sentiment.
BTCUSD – Proxy for global risk appetite influenced by consumer confidence.
NOVO-B – Major Danish stock sensitive to domestic economic conditions.
November’s Consumer Confidence index of -17.30 improved from October’s -20.10 and is slightly above the 12-month average of -17.40. This reverses a four-month downward trend that saw confidence erode from a February high of -14.50. The chart below illustrates this recovery trajectory and highlights the volatility linked to inflation and geopolitical events.
Comparing recent months, August’s reading was -17.20, September -18.70, and November’s rebound suggests a tentative stabilization in consumer sentiment heading into year-end.