Dominican Republic’s annual inflation rate edged up to 4.98% in January 2026, marking the highest level since December and continuing a steady upward trend. Price pressures remain above mid-2025 levels, with food and transport key drivers.
Dominican Republic Inflation Rate YoY: January 2026 Print Rises to 4.98%
The Dominican Republic’s year-over-year inflation rate reached 4.98% in January 2026, according to official data released February 16. This marks a slight increase from December’s 4.95% and extends a climb that began in late 2025. The headline figure sits just below the central bank’s 5% upper target, reflecting persistent price pressures in key consumer categories.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Food prices: +0.21pp
- Transport: +0.16pp
- Housing/utilities: +0.09pp
- Health: +0.04pp
Policy pulse
The 4.98% annual inflation rate for January stands just under the Banco Central de la República Dominicana’s 5% ceiling. Policymakers have reiterated their commitment to maintaining price stability within the 4% ±1% target band.Market lens
Bond yields ticked higher on the release, reflecting persistent inflationary momentum. Investors are watching for signs of moderation, but the latest data reinforce expectations of a cautious monetary stance.Foundational Indicators
Historical context
January’s 4.98% reading is the highest since December’s 4.95%. The rate has climbed from 4.23% in November and 3.76% in October 2025. The 12-month average now stands at 4.06%, up from 3.84% in June 2025.Scenario matrix
- Bullish (15–25%): Inflation returns to 4.5% or below by Q2 if food and transport costs stabilize.
- Base (55–65%): Inflation holds near 5% through Q1, with gradual easing in H2 2026.
- Bearish (10–20%): Further supply shocks push inflation above the 5% ceiling in coming months.
Data source & methodology
Data sourced from Sigmanomics and official central bank releases. The headline figure reflects the national consumer price index, measured year-over-year.Chart Dynamics
What This Chart Tells Us: The inflation curve has steepened since October, with January’s reading confirming persistent price pressures. The lack of a clear peak signals ongoing risks, though the monthly increases have narrowed. Monitoring core categories will be crucial for anticipating a shift in direction.
Forward Outlook
Upside and downside risks
Upside risks include continued food and fuel volatility, as well as possible currency depreciation. Downside risks stem from easing global commodity prices and potential fiscal tightening.Scenario probabilities
The base case—stability near 5%—remains most probable, with a 55–65% likelihood. Bullish and bearish scenarios are less likely but hinge on external shocks and policy responses.Market lens
Currency markets showed muted reaction, with the DOP holding steady against the USD. Fixed income traders remain cautious, pricing in a prolonged period of elevated inflation.Closing Thoughts
Key takeaways
The Dominican Republic’s inflation rate continues to climb, reaching a 13-month high in January. While the pace of increase has slowed, price pressures remain broad-based. The central bank’s vigilance will be tested if inflation breaches the 5% ceiling in coming months.Market lens
Equities have shown resilience, but persistent inflation could weigh on consumer sectors. Investors are watching for signs of moderation before repositioning.Key Markets Reacting to Inflation Rate YoY
Dominican Republic’s inflation data has triggered measured responses across asset classes. Equity, forex, and crypto markets all reflect shifting expectations for monetary policy and consumer demand. The following symbols have shown sensitivity to inflation releases in recent months:
- AAPL (Equities): Consumer tech names often react to emerging market inflation trends, reflecting global demand shifts.
- EURUSD (Forex): The pair tracks risk sentiment and capital flows tied to Latin American inflation prints.
- BTCUSD (Crypto): Bitcoin’s inflation hedge narrative often sees renewed interest on emerging market CPI surprises.
| Month | Inflation Rate YoY (%) | AAPL (Monthly % Change) |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | 4.98 | +2.1 |
| Dec 2025 | 4.95 | +1.7 |
| Nov 2025 | 4.23 | +3.0 |
| Oct 2025 | 3.76 | +0.9 |
| Sep 2025 | 3.71 | -1.2 |
FAQ
- What is the latest Dominican Republic Inflation Rate YoY?
- The most recent annual inflation rate for the Dominican Republic is 4.98% for January 2026, according to official data released February 16, 2026.
- How does the January 2026 inflation figure compare to previous months?
- January’s 4.98% reading is slightly above December’s 4.95% and well above the 12-month average of 4.06%.
- What are the main drivers of inflation in the Dominican Republic?
- Food, transport, and housing/utilities have contributed most to the recent rise in inflation, with food prices adding 0.21 percentage points in January.
Updated 2/16/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics Dominican Republic Inflation Rate YoY database, accessed February 16, 2026.
- Banco Central de la República Dominicana, official CPI releases, January 2026.
Compared to mid-2025, inflation is up by over 1.1 percentage points. The pace of acceleration has moderated, but the trend remains upward, with food and transport costs exerting the most pressure.