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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
EcuadorEcuador Balance of Trade climbed to 450.43M in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Ecuador Balance of Trade climbed to 450.43M in May 2026, released July 2026, up 734.34M from April's -283.91M reading. The print exceeded the -150M consensus by 600.43M. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 142.46M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 35.43M, vs 339.59M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 48th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
450.43
Actual
-150
Consensus
-283.91
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±194.61 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -234.78
Actual: 450.43
Error: -685.21
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Ecuador) was reported at 450.43 million in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -150.00 million by 600.43 million. The reading rose from the previous value of -283.91 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 211.73 million, ranging from -433.00 million to 564.54 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 173.77 million, down from the prior three at 314.91 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 302.24 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 152.22 million). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 502.47 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 194.61 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 19, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - EC
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About Balance of Trade — Ecuador
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 450.4 M, consensus -150 M. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -283.9 M. Before that (Mar 2026): 354.8 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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