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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
EcuadorEcuador Balance of Trade fell to -283.91M in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Ecuador Balance of Trade fell to -283.91M in April 2026, released June 2026, down 638.69M from March's 354.78M reading. The reading missed the 300M consensus by 583.91M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 213.16M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 309.34M, vs 377.44M in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 8 months.
Latest Release
-283.91
Actual
300
Consensus
354.78
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±169.96 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 149.64
Actual: 354.78
Error: -205.14
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Ecuador) was reported at -283.91 million in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 300.00 million by 583.91 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 354.78 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 266.08 million, ranging from -433.00 million to 564.54 million across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 369.88 million, up from the prior three at 161.40 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 274.73 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 153.98 million). In May readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 533.55 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 169.96 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 16, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Balance of Trade - EC
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About Balance of Trade — Ecuador
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -283.9 M, consensus 300 M. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 354.8 M. Before that (Feb 2026): 263.9 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.