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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
EcuadorEcuador Balance of Trade fell to 21.29M in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Ecuador Balance of Trade fell to 21.29M in June 2026, released August 2026, down 429.14M from May's 450.43M reading. The reading missed the 473.3M consensus by 452.01M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 132.95M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 83.26M, vs 368.08M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 12th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
21.29
Actual
473.3
Consensus
450.43
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±227.87 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 477.43
Actual: 21.29
Error: +456.14
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Ecuador) was reported at 21.29 million in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 473.30 million by 452.01 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 450.43 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 221.88 million, ranging from -283.91 million to 485.58 million across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 62.60 million, down from the prior three at 369.88 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 223.58 million) is lower than the prior year (σ 289.04 million). In August readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 396.17 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 227.87 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Balance of Trade - EC
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About Balance of Trade — Ecuador
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 21.29 M, consensus 473.3 M. Prior reading (May 2026): 450.4 M. Before that (Apr 2026): -283.9 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - EC Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | EC | Inflation Rate YoY | 1.39 | 1.3 | 1.30 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | EC | Balance of Trade | 21.29 | -15 | -306.96 | Low | |