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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
EcuadorEcuador Balance of Trade climbed to 504.4M in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Ecuador Balance of Trade climbed to 504.4M in July 2026, released September 2026, up 309.9M from June's 194.5M reading. The print exceeded the -15M consensus by 519.4M. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 170.8M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 235.86M, vs 111.59M in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 12 months.
Latest Release
504.4
Actual
-15
Consensus
194.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±227.87 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 477.43
Actual: 21.29
Error: +456.14
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Ecuador) was reported at 504.40 million in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -15.00 million by 519.40 million. The reading rose from the previous value of 194.50 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 221.88 million, ranging from -283.91 million to 485.58 million across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 62.60 million, down from the prior three at 369.88 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 223.58 million) is lower than the prior year (σ 289.04 million). In August readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 396.17 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 227.87 million.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Balance of Trade - EC
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About Balance of Trade — Ecuador
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 504.4 M, consensus -15 M. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 21.29 M. Before that (May 2026): 450.4 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - EC Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | EC | Balance of Trade | 504.4 | 194.5 | -15 | 244.70 | Low |