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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
EstoniaEstonia Balance of Trade fell to -430M in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Estonia Balance of Trade fell to -430M in July 2026, released September 2026, down 47M from June's -383M reading. The print exceeded the -460M consensus by 30M. Balance of Trade has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -318.5M, vs -341.67M in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 11 months.
Latest Release
-430
Actual
-460
Consensus
-383
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±45.38 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -449.25
Actual: -430
Error: -19.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Estonia) was reported at -430.00 million in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -460.00 million by 30.00 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -383.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -305.43 million, ranging from -430.00 million to -224.00 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -355.67 million, down from the prior three at -282.00 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 66.96 million) is lower than the prior year (σ 79.44 million). In September readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -398.27 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 45.38 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 12, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Balance of Trade - EE
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About Balance of Trade — Estonia
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -430 M, consensus -460 M. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -413 M. Before that (May 2026): -224 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.62) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - EE Events
| Monday, October 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | EE | Balance of Trade | -430 | -250 | -167.00 | Low | |