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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
EstoniaEstonia Balance of Trade fell to -413M in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Estonia Balance of Trade fell to -413M in June 2026, released August 2026, down 195M from May's -218M reading. The reading missed the -290M consensus by 123M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -307.54M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -294.5M, vs -302.33M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 10th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-413
Actual
-290
Consensus
-218
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±50.38 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -259.75
Actual: -413
Error: +153.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Estonia) was reported at -413.00 million in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -290.00 million by 123.00 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -218.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -306.68 million, ranging from -443.80 million to -224.00 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -334.00 million, down from the prior three at -250.33 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 69.37 million) is comparable than the prior year (σ 64.90 million). In August readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -328.33 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 50.38 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 9, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Balance of Trade - EE
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About Balance of Trade — Estonia
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -413 M, consensus -290 M. Prior reading (May 2026): -224 M. Before that (Apr 2026): -365 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.60) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - EE Events
| Friday, August 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | EE | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 05:00 | EE | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.8 | 4.6 | 5.15 | Low | |