Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
EstoniaEstonia Balance of Trade climbed to -224M in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Estonia Balance of Trade climbed to -224M in May 2026, released July 2026, up 147M from April's -371M reading. The print exceeded the -390M consensus by 166M. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -312.29M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -299.5M, vs -314.33M in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 17 months.
Latest Release
-224
Actual
-390
Consensus
-371
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±45.38 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -412.5
Actual: -224
Error: -188.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Estonia) was reported at -224.00 million in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -390.00 million by 166.00 million. The reading rose from the previous value of -371.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -296.77 million, ranging from -443.80 million to -224.00 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -274.33 million, down from the prior three at -271.67 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 60.72 million) is comparable than the prior year (σ 64.31 million). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -216.33 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 45.38 million.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Balance of Trade - EE
Loading chart data...
About Balance of Trade — Estonia
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -224 M, consensus -390 M. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -365 M. Before that (Mar 2026): -234 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.53) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP