EE GDP Growth Rate QoQ: December 2025 Release and Macroeconomic Implications
The latest GDP growth rate for EE, released on December 1, 2025, shows a 0.40% quarter-on-quarter expansion. This figure beats the market estimate of 0.20% but falls short of the previous quarter’s 0.60% growth. Drawing on the Sigmanomics database and historical data, this report analyzes the current economic momentum, underlying drivers, and potential macroeconomic outcomes for EE in the near term.
Table of Contents
The EE economy’s 0.40% GDP growth in Q4 2025 marks a moderate rebound after a volatile year. The figure surpasses the 0.20% consensus forecast but remains below the 0.60% expansion recorded in Q3. Over the past 12 months, EE’s quarterly GDP growth has oscillated between contraction and modest expansion, reflecting ongoing structural adjustments and external pressures.
Drivers this month
- Domestic consumption contributed approximately 0.25 percentage points (pp) to growth.
- Investment activity added 0.10 pp, supported by infrastructure spending.
- Net exports detracted 0.05 pp amid weaker external demand.
Policy pulse
The 0.40% growth aligns with the central bank’s inflation-targeting framework, which aims for steady expansion without overheating. Monetary policy remains accommodative but cautious, balancing inflation risks with growth support.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The EE currency appreciated 0.30% against the EUR within the first hour post-release, reflecting market optimism. Short-term government bond yields edged up by 5 basis points, signaling moderate confidence in sustained growth.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for the GDP reading. Inflation in EE remains contained at 2.10% year-on-year, close to the central bank’s 2% target. Unemployment stands at 5.40%, slightly improved from 5.70% six months ago. The fiscal deficit narrowed to 2.80% of GDP in Q3, reflecting prudent government spending and improved tax revenues.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The central bank held its policy rate steady at 1.50%, citing balanced growth and inflation outlooks. Credit growth remains moderate at 3.20% annualized, supporting private sector activity without fueling asset bubbles.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains mildly expansionary, with increased infrastructure investment offset by efforts to contain current spending. The government’s budget framework targets a gradual reduction in public debt from 58% to 55% of GDP over the next two years.
Historical comparisons highlight the volatility EE has faced. The economy contracted in five of the last eight quarters, with the worst dip at -1.30% in late 2023. The recent positive trend suggests that structural reforms and external demand improvements are beginning to bear fruit.
This chart reveals a clear upward trend in GDP growth since early 2025, reversing a prolonged downturn. The persistence of positive quarterly growth supports a cautiously optimistic outlook for EE’s economic trajectory.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Following the release, the EE government bond 10-year yield rose by 7 basis points, reflecting increased investor confidence. The EE currency index strengthened by 0.30%, while equity markets showed mild gains, particularly in sectors linked to domestic consumption.
Looking ahead, EE’s GDP growth faces a mix of supportive and challenging factors. The baseline scenario projects continued moderate growth of 0.30-0.50% QoQ over the next two quarters, supported by stable domestic demand and gradual export recovery.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Stronger-than-expected external demand boosts exports by 1.50% QoQ.
- Accelerated fiscal stimulus lifts investment and consumption.
- Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting credit expansion.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- GDP growth stabilizes around 0.30-0.50% QoQ.
- Inflation remains near target, allowing steady monetary policy.
- Fiscal consolidation continues gradually without disrupting growth.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical tensions disrupt trade, reducing exports by 0.50% QoQ.
- Financial conditions tighten due to global rate hikes.
- Domestic demand weakens amid rising unemployment.
EE’s latest GDP growth rate of 0.40% QoQ reflects a cautiously positive economic environment. While the recovery is fragile, it is supported by stable inflation, improving labor markets, and prudent fiscal and monetary policies. External risks, including geopolitical tensions and global financial volatility, remain key downside threats. Investors and policymakers should monitor these dynamics closely to sustain momentum.
Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate QoQ
The GDP growth rate is a critical barometer for several markets. The following tradable symbols historically track EE’s economic performance and are likely to react to this release:
- EEQ – EE’s equity index, sensitive to domestic economic trends.
- EEUEUR – EE currency versus the euro, reflecting macroeconomic sentiment.
- EEBTC – Emerging market crypto correlated with EE’s risk appetite.
- EEIN – Infrastructure sector ETF, linked to government spending.
- EEUSD – EE currency versus USD, sensitive to global capital flows.
Insight: GDP Growth vs. EEQ Equity Index Since 2020
Since 2020, quarterly GDP growth in EE has shown a strong positive correlation (0.68) with the EEQ equity index. Periods of GDP contraction, such as Q4 2023 (-1.30%), coincided with sharp equity declines (-12% QoQ). Conversely, recent GDP expansions have supported a 15% rally in EEQ over the past year, underscoring the equity market’s sensitivity to economic momentum.
FAQ
- What is the current GDP growth rate for EE?
- The latest GDP growth rate for EE is 0.40% quarter-on-quarter as of Q4 2025.
- How does this GDP figure compare historically?
- This is the third consecutive positive quarter, improving from contractions as steep as -1.30% in late 2023.
- What are the main risks to EE’s economic outlook?
- Key risks include geopolitical tensions, global financial tightening, and weaker external demand.
Takeaway: EE’s economy is stabilizing with moderate growth, but vigilance is needed to navigate external and domestic risks.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The 0.40% GDP growth in Q4 2025 compares favorably to the previous quarter’s 0.60% and the 12-month average of approximately 0.10%. This marks a recovery from the negative growth phases seen in late 2023 and early 2024, where quarterly contractions reached as low as -1.30% in November 2023.
Key figure: The current 0.40% growth is the third consecutive positive quarter, signaling a tentative stabilization after a turbulent 18-month period.