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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
EstoniaEstonia Industrial Production MoM fell to -0.2% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Estonia Industrial Production MoM fell to -0.2% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 1.5% from April's 1.3% reading. The reading missed the 0.4% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.27%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged -0.65%, vs -1.13% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 52nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.2
Actual
0.4
Consensus
1.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.26 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.9
Actual: -0.2
Error: +1.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.87 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (Estonia) was reported at -0.2% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.4% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.53%, ranging from -1.8% to 6% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.03%, down from the prior three at 2.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.23%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.86%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.26%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - EE
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About Industrial Production MoM — Estonia
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -0.2 %, consensus 0.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.2 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -2.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.87) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - EE Events
| Monday, July 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | EE | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.8 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 3.65 | Low |
| 05:00 | EE | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.3 | 1.1 | -0.6 | -0.45 | Low |