Estonia’s Retail Sales MoM for December 2025: Holiday Surge Defies Recent Slump
Estonia’s retail sector staged a dramatic turnaround in December 2025, with retail sales rising 13.20% month-over-month (MoM), according to the latest Sigmanomics database release. This print, covering December and published January 30, 2026, follows a sharp -4.80% contraction in November and comes in just below the 14.00% market estimate. The data highlight both the volatility of consumer demand and the sector’s sensitivity to broader macroeconomic forces.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
December’s 13.20% MoM retail sales jump marks Estonia’s strongest monthly gain in over a year, sharply reversing November’s -4.80% drop. The surge is attributed to:
- Holiday shopping and year-end promotions boosting discretionary spending
- Stabilization in energy prices, supporting household budgets
- Improved consumer sentiment after a weak autumn
Compared to the 12-month average MoM change of approximately 1.30% (based on Sigmanomics database history), December’s print is nearly ten times higher, underscoring its outlier status.
Policy pulse
Estonia’s central bank has maintained a cautious stance, with policy rates steady as inflation moderates. December’s retail surge may prompt policymakers to reassess the risk of renewed demand-driven price pressures, especially if January data confirm a sustained rebound. However, the reading remains below the 14.00% consensus, suggesting upside risks are contained for now.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/USD was flat, while Tallinn’s OMXT index rose 0.30% in early trading. Market participants viewed the data as a positive sign for domestic demand, but not strong enough to alter the European Central Bank’s (ECB) broader policy trajectory. Estonian government bond yields were little changed, reflecting stable inflation expectations.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
December’s 13.20% MoM gain follows a volatile autumn:
- November 2025: -4.80% MoM (holiday pullback, post-Black Friday lull)
- October 2025: 0.00% MoM (stagnant, reflecting weak consumer confidence)
- September 2025: 0.00% MoM (flat, as per Sigmanomics database)
- 12-month average: 1.30% MoM
- December 2024: 2.10% MoM (estimated, based on prior seasonal patterns)
Year-over-year, December’s retail sales are up sharply, reflecting both base effects and a rebound in household spending power.
Monetary and fiscal backdrop
Estonia’s monetary policy remains aligned with the ECB, with rates on hold since mid-2025. Fiscal policy has been mildly expansionary, with targeted support for low-income households and energy subsidies. The government’s budget deficit remains below 3% of GDP, providing room for further stimulus if needed.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Estonia’s open economy remains exposed to eurozone demand, energy price volatility, and regional security risks. December’s retail surge suggests resilience, but any escalation in geopolitical tensions or renewed inflation could quickly dampen consumer sentiment.
Chart Dynamics
Drivers this month
- Electronics and apparel led gains, with anecdotal reports of strong holiday promotions
- Food and beverage sales were steady, reflecting stable household demand
- Online retail continued to expand, offsetting weakness in some brick-and-mortar segments
Policy pulse
With inflation moderating and retail sales rebounding, the central bank is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach. December’s data do not yet warrant a policy shift, but a sustained uptrend could prompt a more hawkish tone in spring 2026.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/USD was unchanged, OMXT rose 0.30%, and Estonian 2-year yields held steady. The muted response reflects market confidence in the sustainability of the recovery, but also caution given the volatility of recent prints.
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (30%): Retail sales maintain momentum into Q1 2026, supported by rising real incomes and stable inflation. GDP growth outpaces eurozone peers.
- Base case (55%): Retail sales normalize in January-February, with MoM gains returning to the 1–2% range. Consumer confidence stabilizes, and policy remains on hold.
- Bearish (15%): The December surge proves transitory; sales contract in early 2026 as energy prices or geopolitical risks resurface. Downside risks to growth re-emerge.
Risks and opportunities
Upside risks include further disinflation, wage growth, and eurozone recovery. Downside risks stem from external shocks, renewed inflation, and policy tightening. Structural trends—such as digitalization and demographic shifts—will shape the medium-term outlook.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: OMXT’s modest gain signals cautious optimism, while EUR/USD stability reflects limited spillover to broader eurozone sentiment. Investors will watch January’s data for confirmation of a sustained recovery.
Closing Thoughts
Summary and implications
Estonia’s December 2025 retail sales print is a striking reminder of the sector’s volatility and sensitivity to both seasonal and macroeconomic forces. The 13.20% MoM surge, while impressive, must be viewed in context: it follows a sharp November contraction and remains just below consensus. Policymakers and investors alike will look for confirmation in early 2026 data before declaring a sustained recovery.
Looking ahead
With monetary policy on hold and fiscal space available, Estonia is well-positioned to weather near-term shocks. However, external risks and structural headwinds persist. The coming months will be critical in determining whether December’s rebound marks a turning point or a seasonal blip.
Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales MoM
Estonia’s retail sales data can influence a range of asset classes, especially those sensitive to domestic demand, eurozone sentiment, and risk appetite. Below are five tradable symbols whose prices historically track or respond to shifts in Estonian and regional retail activity. Each symbol is presented in red and linked to its Sigmanomics page, with a brief note on its correlation or impact relationship.
- OMXT – Estonia’s main equity index; retail sales strength often boosts consumer and retail stocks.
- EUREUR – EUR/EUR cross; serves as a liquidity proxy, with retail data influencing eurozone sentiment.
- EURUSD – Euro/US Dollar; sensitive to eurozone macro data, including retail sales from member states.
- ETHEUR – Ethereum/Euro; often tracks risk sentiment and consumer confidence in the region.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin/US Dollar; reacts to shifts in risk appetite and macroeconomic surprises in Europe.
| Year | Retail Sales MoM Avg (%) | OMXT YoY Return (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -2.10 | -8.40 |
| 2021 | 1.70 | 14.20 |
| 2022 | 0.90 | 5.70 |
| 2023 | 1.20 | 7.90 |
| 2024 | 1.30 | 6.10 |
| 2025 | 1.30 | 4.80 |
OMXT returns tend to track the direction of retail sales momentum, with outsized gains in years of strong consumer demand. The December 2025 surge could foreshadow improved equity performance if sustained into 2026.
FAQ
Q: What does Estonia’s December 2025 Retail Sales MoM figure reveal?
A: The 13.20% MoM surge signals a strong holiday rebound, reversing November’s slump and suggesting renewed consumer confidence.
Q: How does this reading compare to historical trends?
A: December’s print is nearly ten times the 12-month average and the highest since early 2024, highlighting its exceptional nature.
Q: What are the main risks and opportunities for markets?
A: Upside risks include further disinflation and wage growth; downside risks stem from external shocks and policy tightening.
Bottom line: December’s retail sales surge is a bullish signal for Estonia’s consumer sector, but confirmation in early 2026 data is essential before declaring a sustained recovery.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 1/30/26
- Sigmanomics database, Estonia Retail Sales MoM, accessed January 30, 2026.
- Estonian Statistics Office, macroeconomic releases, December 2025–January 2026.
- European Central Bank, monetary policy statements, Q4 2025–Q1 2026.
December’s 13.20% MoM retail sales print stands in stark contrast to November’s -4.80% and the 12-month average of 1.30%. This sharp reversal is visually evident in the latest Sigmanomics database chart, which shows a pronounced V-shaped recovery. The December figure is the highest since at least early 2024, breaking a multi-month pattern of stagnation and contraction.
Compared to the previous six months, where monthly changes ranged from -4.80% to 5.90%, December’s surge is a clear outlier. The data suggest that seasonal factors—particularly holiday spending—played a dominant role, but underlying momentum may also be improving as inflation pressures ease and real incomes stabilize.