Egypt’s foreign exchange reserves rose to $50.07 billion in November 2025, up 1.10% month-on-month (MoM) and 4.10% year-on-year (YoY). This marks the highest level since mid-2024, reflecting improved external balances and stronger capital inflows. The reserves now comfortably exceed the $49.70 billion consensus estimate and the $49.53 billion recorded in October.

Drivers this month

• Increased remittances from the Egyptian diaspora, up 7% YoY.
• Higher tourism receipts following eased travel restrictions.
• Stabilization of export revenues amid global commodity price recovery.

Policy pulse

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has maintained a cautious monetary stance, balancing inflation control with growth support. The reserve build-up provides additional buffer against external shocks and supports the currency peg regime.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The EGP/USD spot rate appreciated 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting renewed confidence in Egypt’s external position. Short-term yields on Egyptian government bonds tightened by 5 basis points, signaling improved risk sentiment.

Foreign exchange reserves are a critical indicator of Egypt’s macroeconomic health. The current $50.07 billion level represents a 4.10% increase compared to November 2024’s $48.14 billion and a 1.10% rise from October 2025’s $49.53 billion. This steady accumulation aligns with improving trade balances and capital inflows.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The CBE’s key interest rate remains at 18.75%, unchanged since mid-2025, aiming to curb inflation which currently stands at 11.30% YoY. The reserve increase supports the central bank’s ability to defend the EGP and manage liquidity, reducing pressure on foreign currency markets.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Egypt’s fiscal deficit narrowed to 7.20% of GDP in Q3 2025, down from 7.80% in Q2, aided by higher tax revenues and controlled spending. The reserve build-up provides fiscal space to service external debt, which remains elevated at 38% of GDP.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

Regional tensions and global commodity price volatility remain key risks. However, Egypt’s diversified export base and recent IMF support programs have mitigated immediate vulnerabilities.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The EGP/USD exchange rate strengthened by 0.30% following the release, while Egyptian government bond yields tightened by 5 basis points. This suggests enhanced investor confidence in Egypt’s external liquidity and creditworthiness.

Looking ahead, Egypt’s foreign exchange reserves face a mix of opportunities and risks. The baseline forecast anticipates reserves stabilizing around $50.50 billion by Q1 2026, supported by continued remittance inflows and tourism recovery.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Stronger-than-expected export growth driven by global demand.
• Additional IMF disbursements and sovereign bond issuances.
• Geopolitical stability enhancing investor confidence.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Moderate reserve growth to $50.50 billion by early 2026.
• Steady remittance and tourism inflows offset by inflationary pressures.
• Monetary policy maintaining current rates to balance growth and inflation.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• External shocks from regional conflicts or commodity price shocks.
• Capital outflows triggered by global financial tightening.
• Reserve depletion below $49 billion, pressuring the EGP and bond markets.

Egypt’s foreign exchange reserves have demonstrated resilience and gradual improvement over the past year. The November 2025 print of $50.07 billion marks a positive milestone, enhancing Egypt’s external buffer and supporting macroeconomic stability. However, ongoing inflationary pressures, fiscal constraints, and geopolitical risks warrant cautious monitoring. The Central Bank’s ability to maintain monetary discipline while fostering growth will be critical in sustaining this trajectory.

Key Markets Likely to React to Foreign Exchange Reserves

Foreign exchange reserves are a bellwether for Egypt’s external stability and influence currency, bond, and equity markets. The following tradable symbols historically track reserve fluctuations and macro sentiment:

• USDEGP – The USD/EGP exchange rate is directly impacted by reserve levels and central bank interventions.
• EGX30 – Egypt’s benchmark stock index reacts to macroeconomic stability and foreign investor flows.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin often serves as an alternative asset during currency volatility in emerging markets.
• EURUSD – Euro-dollar dynamics influence Egypt’s trade and capital flows.
• MSFT – Global tech stocks like Microsoft reflect broader risk appetite affecting emerging market assets.

FAQs

What are Egypt’s foreign exchange reserves?

Foreign exchange reserves are assets held by Egypt’s central bank in foreign currencies to back liabilities and support the national currency.

How do reserves affect Egypt’s economy?

Higher reserves improve Egypt’s ability to manage currency volatility, pay external debt, and attract foreign investment.

What factors influence reserve levels?

Key factors include trade balances, remittances, foreign investment, monetary policy, and geopolitical events.

Takeaway: Egypt’s rising foreign exchange reserves strengthen its external position, providing a vital cushion amid inflation and geopolitical risks. Continued vigilance and policy balance will be essential to sustain this progress.