Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SpainSpain Business Confidence fell to -3.9% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Spain Business Confidence fell to -3.9% in August 2026, down 1.3% from July's -2.6% reading. The reading missed the -3.0% consensus by 0.9%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -4.13%. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged -2.97%, vs -4.3% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 68th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-3.9
Actual
-3
Consensus
-2.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.72 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -3.05
Actual: -3.9
Error: +0.85
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Spain) was reported at -3.9% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -3% by 0.9%. The reading fell from the previous value of -2.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -3.48%, ranging from -5.4% to -2.4% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -2.97%, up from the prior three at -3.5%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.96%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.75%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged -4.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.73%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 22) and Inflation Rate MoM (Sep 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
SHARE
Business Confidence - ES
Loading chart data...
About Business Confidence — Spain
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -3.9 %, consensus -3 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -3.9 %. Before that (Jul 2026): -2.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - ES Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | ES | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 4.6 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 4.55 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Low |