Spain’s HCOB Composite PMI Slips to Four-Month Low in February
The latest HCOB Composite PMI reading for Spain shows a notable deceleration in private sector activity. February’s print of 51.5, released March 4, 2026, is down from January’s 52.9 and falls short of consensus estimates. The index remains above the 50 mark, indicating ongoing expansion, but momentum has clearly softened compared to the robust gains seen in late 2025.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Services sector growth slowed
- Manufacturing output remained weak
- New orders growth moderated
Policy pulse
February’s 51.5 reading keeps the index above the 50 expansion threshold, but the decline from January’s 52.9 signals a loss of momentum. The ECB does not set a formal PMI target, but policymakers monitor the index as a gauge of economic health.
Market lens
Spanish equities saw muted reaction as the PMI remained in expansion territory, but the weaker print weighed on euro sentiment. Investors digested the softer data as a sign that Spain’s growth is cooling after a strong finish to 2025, with services losing steam and manufacturing still struggling to gain traction.Foundational Indicators
Historical context
- February 2026: 51.5
- January 2026: 52.9
- December 2025: 55.1
- November 2025: 56.0
- October 2025: 53.8
- September 2025: 53.7
Comparative trend
February’s reading is the lowest since October 2025, when the index stood at 53.8. The 12-month average, calculated from March 2025 to February 2026, is approximately 54.1, underscoring the recent slowdown.
Sector breakdown
Services continued to outperform manufacturing, but both sectors contributed less to overall growth than in previous months. New business inflows and employment growth both moderated.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario probabilities
- Bullish (20–30%): Services rebound, PMI returns above 53 in coming months.
- Base case (50–60%): PMI hovers near 51–52 as growth remains modest.
- Bearish (15–25%): Further loss of momentum, index dips below 50, signaling contraction.
Risks and catalysts
Upside risks include a pickup in services demand and improved external conditions. Downside risks stem from persistent manufacturing weakness and any renewed global shocks. The PMI’s methodology—surveying purchasing managers across sectors—captures real-time shifts in business sentiment.
Data source
All figures sourced from HCOB, compiled by S&P Global, and verified against the Sigmanomics database[1].
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Euro and Spanish equity markets showed limited movement, reflecting the PMI’s continued expansion but acknowledging the slowdown. The data signals resilience, but the loss of momentum will keep policymakers and investors alert for further signs of weakness.Key Markets Reacting to HCOB Composite PMI
Spain’s HCOB Composite PMI readings influence a range of asset classes, from equities to currencies. The following symbols are directly impacted by shifts in Spanish economic momentum, with each showing a distinct correlation to PMI trends.
- SAN (Banco Santander): Sensitive to Spanish macro data; PMI declines often coincide with weaker banking sector sentiment.
- EURUSD: Euro reacts to Spanish PMI surprises, especially when diverging from broader eurozone trends.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s correlation with Spanish PMI is limited, but risk sentiment shifts can drive volatility in digital assets.
| Year | HCOB Composite PMI (ES) | SAN (Banco Santander) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | ~40–50 | Underperformed during contraction |
| 2021 | 50–57 | Recovered with PMI rebound |
| 2022 | 50–55 | Tracked PMI directionally |
| 2023 | 51–54 | Stable, modest gains |
| 2024–2026 | 53–56 (peak), now 51.5 | Peaked with PMI, now consolidating |
Banco Santander’s share price has historically moved in tandem with major PMI swings, especially during periods of sharp contraction or recovery.
FAQ: Spain’s HCOB Composite PMI Slips to Four-Month Low in February
- What does the February 2026 HCOB Composite PMI reading mean for Spain?
- Spain’s PMI fell to 51.5 in February 2026, signaling continued expansion but at the slowest pace since October 2025. Services growth slowed, and manufacturing remained subdued.
- How does this month’s PMI compare to recent trends?
- February’s 51.5 is down from January’s 52.9 and well below the 12-month average of 54.1, marking a clear deceleration from late 2025’s highs.
- Why is the HCOB Composite PMI important for markets?
- The PMI is a leading indicator of private sector health. Movements in the index often influence Spanish equities, the euro, and broader investor sentiment.
Spain’s private sector expansion is slowing, with February’s PMI at a four-month low and downside risks building.
Updated 3/4/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- [1] HCOB / S&P Global, Spain Composite PMI, official release March 4, 2026. Data cross-verified with Sigmanomics database.
February’s HCOB Composite PMI fell to 51.5 from January’s 52.9, well below the 12-month average of 54.1. The index has now declined for two consecutive months, reversing the strong gains seen in late 2025. December’s 55.1 and November’s 56.0 marked the recent peak, highlighting the current loss of momentum.
Compared to six months ago, when the index stood at 54.7 (August 2025), February’s reading reflects a clear deceleration. The PMI remains above the 50 threshold, but the gap has narrowed considerably.