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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SpainSpain HCOB Composite PMI fell to 51.5 in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Spain HCOB Composite PMI fell to 51.5 in February 2026, released March 2026, down 1.4 from January's 52.9 reading. The reading matched the 53.4 consensus. HCOB Composite PMI has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, HCOB Composite PMI averaged 54.25, vs 54.97 in the prior 3-month window. HCOB Composite PMI is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
51.5
Actual
53.4
Consensus
52.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.23
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 52.98
Actual: 51.5
Error: +1.48
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.71 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HCOB Composite PMI (Spain) was reported at 51.50 in March 2026. This missed the market consensus of 53.40 by 1.90. The reading fell from the previous value of 52.90. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 54.16, ranging from 51.50 to 56.00 across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 53.33, down from the prior three at 54.97. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.40) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.47). In March readings over the past 3 years, HCOB Composite PMI has averaged 53.50.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.23.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Jun 23) and Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Jun 25).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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HCOB Composite PMI - ES
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About HCOB Composite PMI — Spain
DEFINITION
The HCOB Composite PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the overall health and performance of the economy. It combines data from various sectors, including manufacturing, services, and construction, to provide a comprehensive assessment of economic activity. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it can provide valuable insights into the current and future state of the economy. A high HCOB Composite PMI indicates strong economic growth, while a low reading may signal a potential slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 51.5, consensus 53.4. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 52.9. Before that (Dec 2025): 55.6.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.71) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.