Spain’s Manufacturing PMI Hits 50.0 in February: Expansion Resumes
Spain’s manufacturing sector regained momentum in February, as the HCOB Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.0, ending two months of contraction. The latest reading signals stabilization, with output and new orders showing signs of recovery. This report examines the drivers, market response, and forward scenarios for Spain’s industrial outlook.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Output: stabilized after two months of decline
- New orders: flat, ending contraction
- Employment: steady
Policy pulse
The February PMI reading of 50.0 matches the expansion threshold, aligning with the European Central Bank’s aim for steady industrial growth. The index had dipped to 49.2 in January and 49.6 in December, both below the 50 mark.
Market lens
Market reaction was subdued as the PMI returned to neutral territory. Spanish equities and the euro showed little movement, reflecting investor caution and a wait-and-see approach to further data releases.
Foundational Indicators
Drivers this month
- Output: no change from January
- Input costs: stable
- Supplier delivery times: unchanged
Policy pulse
The PMI’s return to 50.0 in February brings it in line with the 12-month average of 51.0. The reading remains below the highs seen in September 2025, when the index reached 54.3.
Market lens
Investors interpreted the data as a sign of stabilization, not acceleration. The muted response in Spanish bond yields and the euro reflects a consensus that the sector is neither overheating nor deteriorating.
Chart Dynamics
What This Chart Tells Us: The PMI’s rebound to 50.0 in February halts the recent contraction, but the sector remains below last autumn’s momentum. The stabilization suggests downside risks have eased, yet the lack of strong growth signals caution for the months ahead.
Forward Outlook
Drivers this month
- Order books: steady, no clear uptrend
- Export demand: flat
- Inventories: unchanged
Policy pulse
The PMI’s return to 50.0 provides some relief for policymakers, but the lack of upward momentum means vigilance remains necessary. The ECB’s stance is unlikely to shift based on this single data point.
Market lens
Market participants see the risks as balanced after February’s print. Upside and downside scenarios are both plausible, with no clear catalyst for a sustained rally or selloff in Spanish assets.
- Bullish scenario (25–35%): PMI climbs above 52 in coming months, driven by stronger new orders and export gains.
- Base case (50–60%): Index fluctuates around 50, reflecting ongoing stabilization but limited growth.
- Bearish scenario (10–20%): PMI slips back below 49, signaling renewed contraction if demand weakens.
Data source: HCOB, compiled by S&P Global. PMI methodology surveys purchasing managers on output, orders, employment, and supply chains. Figures are seasonally adjusted and reflect responses from a representative sample of Spanish manufacturers.[1]
Closing Thoughts
Drivers this month
- Stabilization in output and orders
- Muted cost pressures
- Steady employment
Policy pulse
With the PMI at 50.0, Spain’s manufacturing sector has paused its decline but has yet to regain strong growth. Policymakers and investors will watch for clearer signals in the coming months.
Market lens
Markets remain cautious, awaiting further confirmation of a sustained recovery. The next PMI releases will be critical in shaping expectations for Spain’s industrial trajectory.
Key Markets Reacting to HCOB Manufacturing PMI
Spain’s manufacturing PMI can influence a range of asset classes, from equities to currencies. Below are key tradable symbols that have historically shown sensitivity to shifts in Spanish manufacturing data. Each symbol is verified as active and listed on Sigmanomics, with a brief note on its typical correlation or impact.
- AAPL: Indirect exposure via global supply chains; Spanish PMI shifts can affect European tech demand.
- EURUSD: Directly impacted by eurozone economic data, including Spain’s PMI releases.
- BTCUSD: Occasionally reacts to broad risk sentiment shifts following major European economic prints.
| Year | HCOB Manufacturing PMI (ES) | EURUSD Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 47.8–52.0 | Appreciated |
| 2021 | 50.0–59.0 | Strong rally |
| 2022 | 48.0–53.5 | Volatile |
| 2023 | 46.5–51.2 | Depreciated |
| 2024 | 47.0–52.5 | Stabilized |
| 2025 | 48.1–54.3 | Mixed |
Since 2020, periods of PMI expansion above 50 have generally coincided with euro strength, while contractions have often seen EURUSD under pressure.
- What is Spain’s HCOB Manufacturing PMI?
- The HCOB Manufacturing PMI is a monthly index measuring the health of Spain’s manufacturing sector, based on surveys of purchasing managers.
- What does the February 2026 PMI reading indicate?
- February’s PMI at 50.0 signals stabilization in Spanish manufacturing, ending a two-month contraction and matching the expansion threshold.
- How does the PMI affect markets?
- Spain’s PMI can influence the euro, Spanish equities, and global risk sentiment, especially when readings cross the 50 expansion/contraction line.
Spain’s manufacturing sector steadied in February, but sustained growth remains elusive.
Updated 3/2/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- HCOB, S&P Global. “Spain Manufacturing PMI,” February 2026 release. Accessed March 2, 2026.
February’s HCOB Manufacturing PMI for Spain printed at 50.0, up from January’s 49.2 and matching the expansion threshold. The 12-month average stands at 51.0, with the index peaking at 54.3 in September 2025 and bottoming at 48.1 in May 2025. Over the past six months, the PMI has ranged from 48.1 to 54.3, reflecting alternating periods of contraction and expansion.
Compared to November’s 52.1 and October’s 51.5, February’s reading remains below the late-2025 highs but marks an improvement from the recent lows. The index has now reversed a two-month contraction, signaling a potential turning point for the sector.