Spain Retail Sales YoY for December 2025: Growth Slows Sharply to 2.90%
Table of Contents
Spain’s retail sales for December 2025, as reported by the Sigmanomics database, rose 2.90% year-over-year, a marked deceleration from November’s 6.00% and far below the consensus estimate of 5.50%[1]. This reading represents the slowest pace since April 2025 and breaks a streak of above-trend growth seen through much of the second half of the year.
Drivers this month
- December’s 2.90% YoY growth (vs. November’s 6.00%) reflects weaker holiday spending and a normalization after a strong Black Friday period.
- Key contributors: food and household goods slowed, while discretionary categories (apparel, electronics) saw outright declines.
- Energy price stabilization and fading pent-up demand weighed on volume growth.
Policy pulse
The sharp slowdown in retail sales comes as the European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a cautious stance, with rates on hold and inflation still above target. Spain’s reading may add pressure for a dovish tilt, but policymakers remain wary of premature easing given sticky core inflation.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/USD dipped 0.20% on the release, while Spanish equities underperformed the Euro Stoxx 50 in early trading. The muted retail print reinforced market expectations for ECB rate cuts by mid-2026, with Spanish 2-year yields falling 5bps in the first hour.
The December 2025 retail sales print must be viewed in the context of Spain’s broader macro landscape. GDP growth for Q4 2025 is tracking at 0.30% QoQ, down from 0.50% in Q3, as consumer spending cools. The unemployment rate remains elevated at 11.70%, and headline inflation eased to 3.10% in December, but core inflation is sticky at 2.70%[1].
Drivers this month
- Real wage growth has stagnated, eroding purchasing power despite moderating inflation.
- Government support measures (energy subsidies, VAT cuts) are being phased out, reducing disposable income.
- Household savings rates remain below pre-pandemic levels, limiting buffer capacity.
Policy pulse
Fiscal policy is turning less supportive as Spain aims to narrow its budget deficit (expected at 3.70% of GDP for 2025). The government’s 2026 draft budget signals a shift toward consolidation, with less room for stimulus if growth falters.
Market lens
Spanish government bond spreads over Bunds widened modestly post-release, reflecting investor caution on growth prospects. The IBEX 35 index lagged regional peers, while consumer-facing stocks saw outsized declines.
Drivers this month
- Holiday spending was weaker than expected, with anecdotal reports of cautious consumer behavior.
- Retailers cited increased price sensitivity and a shift toward discount channels.
- Tourism-related retail activity softened after a robust summer season.
Policy pulse
The ECB’s rate path is now more data-dependent, with markets pricing in a 60% chance of a cut by June 2026. Spain’s retail data strengthens the case for earlier easing if weakness persists.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/USD dipped 0.20%... Spanish 2-year yields fell 5bps, and the IBEX 35 lost 0.60% in the first trading hour post-release, reflecting investor concern over consumer demand.
Looking ahead, Spain’s retail sector faces a more challenging environment. The combination of fading fiscal support, high unemployment, and persistent core inflation is likely to constrain household spending in early 2026. External shocks—such as energy price volatility or renewed geopolitical tensions—could further dampen sentiment.
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (20%): Retail sales rebound above 4% YoY by March 2026, driven by a surprise pickup in wage growth and ECB rate cuts.
- Base (60%): Growth stabilizes near 3% YoY, with modest gains as inflation eases but labor market slack persists.
- Bearish (20%): Retail sales slip below 2% YoY, as consumer confidence deteriorates and fiscal tightening bites.
Risks and opportunities
- Upside: Faster disinflation, tourism recovery, and EU fund disbursements could support demand.
- Downside: Energy shocks, global slowdown, or political gridlock could deepen the slowdown.
Market lens
Markets are likely to remain sensitive to incoming consumer and labor data. Spanish equities and the EUR will track retail momentum closely, with outsized moves possible if growth surprises on either side.
Spain’s December 2025 retail sales report marks a clear inflection point, with growth slowing to 2.90% YoY—well below trend and consensus. The data highlights mounting headwinds for the Spanish consumer and raises the stakes for policymakers as 2026 unfolds. While Spain’s economy remains more resilient than some Eurozone peers, the loss of retail momentum warrants close monitoring of both macro and market signals in the months ahead.
Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales YoY
Spain’s retail sales data is a key barometer for domestic demand, with direct implications for equities, the euro, and risk sentiment. The following tradable symbols have historically shown strong sensitivity to Spanish consumer trends, either through direct exposure or macro linkages:
- ITX – Inditex, Spain’s retail giant, is highly correlated with domestic consumption trends.
- SAN – Banco Santander, as a bellwether for Spanish economic health, tracks consumer credit and retail activity.
- EUREUR – The euro’s performance often reflects shifts in Eurozone consumer sentiment, with Spanish data a key input.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price can react to macroeconomic uncertainty and shifts in risk appetite following weak retail data.
- ETHUSD – Ethereum, as a risk asset, is sensitive to broader market sentiment and liquidity conditions influenced by consumer trends.
| Year | Retail Sales YoY (%) | ITX Annual Return (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -7.10 | -16.30 |
| 2021 | 4.20 | 34.80 |
| 2022 | 5.50 | 11.20 |
| 2023 | 3.90 | 7.60 |
| 2024 | 4.60 | 9.10 |
| 2025 | 4.50 | 12.70 |
Insight: Inditex’s share price has historically tracked the direction of Spanish retail sales, with outsized gains in years of strong consumer growth and underperformance during contractions.
FAQ
Q: What does Spain’s December 2025 Retail Sales YoY figure reveal?
A: The 2.90% YoY growth signals a sharp slowdown from November’s 6.00%, suggesting weaker consumer momentum and rising downside risks for the Spanish economy.
Q: Why is the retail sales slowdown significant for markets?
A: Retail sales are a leading indicator for domestic demand. The sharp deceleration increases the likelihood of ECB rate cuts and could weigh on Spanish equities and the euro.
Q: How does Spain’s retail sales trend compare to the Eurozone?
A: Spain’s retail sales outperformed the Eurozone average in 2025, but December’s sharp slowdown brings it closer to the regional trend, highlighting shared headwinds.
Bottom line: Spain’s retail sales growth has lost momentum, raising the stakes for policymakers and investors as 2026 begins.
- Sigmanomics database, Spain Retail Sales YoY, Jan 2026 release.
- Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), Spain, December 2025 macroeconomic indicators.
Updated 1/29/26
December’s 2.90% YoY retail sales growth is not only sharply lower than November’s 6.00%, but also well below the 12-month average of 4.50%. The last time Spain posted sub-3% growth was in April 2025 (3.60%). The second half of 2025 saw a surge—July at 6.20%, August at 4.70%, September at 4.50%, and October at 4.20%—before the abrupt slowdown in December.
This deceleration is more pronounced than typical seasonal patterns, suggesting that the consumer rebound post-pandemic may be losing steam. The gap between the December print and the 12-month average (2.90% vs. 4.50%) is the widest since early 2024.