Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SpainSpain Tourist Arrivals YoY climbed to 5.2% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Spain Tourist Arrivals YoY climbed to 5.2% in April 2026, released June 2026, up 1.9% from March's 3.3% reading. The reading missed the 9.0% consensus by 3.8%. Tourist Arrivals YoY has now risen for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Tourist Arrivals YoY averaged 2.43%, vs 1.25% in the prior 3-month window. Tourist Arrivals YoY is now the highest in 10 months.
Latest Release
5.2
Actual
9
Consensus
3.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.33 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 9.38
Actual: 5.2
Error: +4.17
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tourist Arrivals YoY (Spain) was reported at 5.2% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 9% by 3.8%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.21%, ranging from 0.4% to 5.2% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.07%, up from the prior three at 1.9%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.32%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.06%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Tourist Arrivals YoY has averaged 7.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.33%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Jun 23) and Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Jun 25).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
SHARE
Tourist Arrivals YoY - ES
Loading chart data...
About Tourist Arrivals YoY — Spain
DEFINITION
Tourist Arrivals YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the number of tourists visiting a particular destination. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of tourism in a specific location, which can have a significant impact on the local economy. This indicator is often used by businesses and governments to track the performance of the tourism industry and make informed decisions regarding marketing strategies, investment opportunities, and policy changes.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 5.2 K, consensus 9 K. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 3.3 K. Before that (Feb 2026): 2.8 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.