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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SpainSpain Tourist Arrivals YoY climbed to 4.6% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Spain Tourist Arrivals YoY climbed to 4.6% in July 2026, released September 2026, up 1.7% from June's 2.9% reading. The print exceeded the 4.0% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.99%. Over the past 3 months, Tourist Arrivals YoY averaged 6.2%, vs 3.77% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 59th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.6
Actual
4
Consensus
2.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 3.15
Actual: 4.6
Error: -1.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tourist Arrivals YoY (Spain) was reported at 4.6% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4% by 0.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.24%, ranging from 0.4% to 9.5% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.67%, up from the prior three at 3.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.43%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.39%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Tourist Arrivals YoY has averaged 4.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 22) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Tourist Arrivals YoY - ES
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About Tourist Arrivals YoY — Spain
DEFINITION
Tourist Arrivals YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the number of tourists visiting a particular destination. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of tourism in a specific location, which can have a significant impact on the local economy. This indicator is often used by businesses and governments to track the performance of the tourism industry and make informed decisions regarding marketing strategies, investment opportunities, and policy changes.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 4.6 K, consensus 4 K. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 2.9 K. Before that (May 2026): 9.5 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.58) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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