Tourist Arrivals Yoy - ES Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
Spain Tourist Arrivals YoY
3.2
Actual
1.5
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Spain’s Tourist Arrivals YoY for December 2025 came in at 3.20%, beating the 1.50% consensus estimate and rising sharply from the previous 0.80%. This increase signals renewed expansion in the tourism sector after recent volatility, reflecting stronger demand and easing external risks. Looking ahead, stable monetary policy and continued fiscal support should sustain growth, while markets remain attentive to geopolitical developments. Updated 12/3/25
Tourist Arrivals Yoy - ES
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Spain’s Tourist Arrivals YoY: December 2025 Report and Macro Outlook
The latest data from the Sigmanomics database reveals a 3.20% year-on-year increase in tourist arrivals to Spain for December 2025. This figure notably exceeds the 1.50% consensus estimate and the prior month’s 0.80% reading. After a volatile year marked by sharp swings in tourism flows, this uptick signals renewed momentum in Spain’s travel sector. This report dissects the geographic and temporal context, macroeconomic drivers, policy environment, and market implications, offering a forward-looking assessment of Spain’s tourism trajectory and its broader economic impact.
Spain’s tourism sector, a critical pillar of its economy, has shown resilience amid global uncertainties. The 3.20% YoY rise in tourist arrivals for December 2025 marks a strong rebound from the subdued 0.80% in October and outpaces the 12-month average of approximately 3.90% over the past year. This recovery follows a turbulent period where arrivals peaked at 10.10% in June but then slowed sharply during late summer and autumn.
Drivers this month
Improved air connectivity and easing of travel restrictions in key source markets.
Strong demand from European neighbors, particularly France and Germany.
Competitive pricing and promotional campaigns by Spanish tourism authorities.
Policy pulse
The current reading sits comfortably above the European Central Bank’s inflation target zone, reflecting robust consumer spending in tourism-related sectors. Monetary policy remains cautiously accommodative, supporting disposable incomes and travel demand.
Market lens
Following the release, the EUR/USD currency pair showed a mild appreciation of 0.15%, reflecting optimism about Spain’s economic recovery. Spanish sovereign bond yields remained stable, while equity markets in tourism-linked sectors saw modest gains.
Tourism arrivals are a vital macroeconomic indicator for Spain, influencing GDP, employment, and trade balances. The 3.20% YoY increase contrasts with the 0.80% growth recorded two months prior and the 1.50% consensus estimate, underscoring a stronger-than-expected rebound. Historically, Spain’s tourism sector has experienced volatility linked to external shocks and seasonal patterns. For example, arrivals surged 10.10% in June 2025, driven by pent-up demand post-pandemic, but slowed to 1.60% in September amid geopolitical tensions.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The European Central Bank’s steady interest rate stance and moderate inflation have helped maintain favorable financial conditions. Lower borrowing costs and stable credit availability support investment in tourism infrastructure and consumer spending on travel.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Spain’s government has allocated increased funding to tourism promotion and infrastructure upgrades in its 2025 budget. These fiscal measures aim to sustain growth and improve competitiveness amid rising global travel demand.
The December 2025 tourist arrivals YoY growth of 3.20% represents a significant improvement over the previous month’s 0.80% and surpasses the 12-month average of 3.90%. This rebound follows a trough in October and suggests a reversal of the recent slowdown in tourism flows.
Comparing recent months, arrivals peaked at 10.10% in June 2025, then declined sharply to 1.60% in September and 0.80% in October, before recovering in December. This volatility reflects seasonal effects and external shocks, including geopolitical tensions and fluctuating travel restrictions.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and energy price volatility have intermittently dampened travel confidence. However, easing tensions and stable energy prices in late 2025 have contributed to the recent uptick in arrivals.
Financial Markets & Sentiment
Tourism-related equities and the Spanish IBEX 35 index have shown positive correlation with tourist arrivals. The recent data release triggered a mild rally in travel stocks, reflecting improved investor sentiment.
This chart signals a recovery trend in Spain’s tourism sector, reversing the two-month decline seen in autumn 2025. The rebound suggests strengthening demand and improved external conditions, which could support broader economic growth in early 2026.
Looking ahead, Spain’s tourism sector faces a mix of opportunities and risks. The baseline scenario projects continued moderate growth of 3–4% YoY in arrivals through mid-2026, supported by stable European demand and ongoing fiscal support. Bullish scenarios (20% probability) envision a surge above 6% growth if geopolitical tensions ease further and global economic conditions improve. Conversely, bearish scenarios (15% probability) could see growth stall or contract if new COVID variants emerge or energy prices spike again.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Long-term trends favor sustainable tourism development, digitalization, and diversification of source markets. Spain’s investment in green tourism and infrastructure modernization aims to enhance resilience and competitiveness.
Policy pulse
Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with the ECB monitoring inflation closely. Fiscal stimulus targeted at tourism and related sectors is likely to continue, supporting demand and investment.
Market lens
Financial markets will watch for further tourism data releases as indicators of Spain’s economic health. Currency and bond markets may react to shifts in travel confidence and external risk factors.
Spain’s 3.20% YoY increase in tourist arrivals for December 2025 marks a positive turn after recent volatility. Supported by favorable monetary and fiscal policies, easing geopolitical risks, and structural reforms, the tourism sector is poised for steady growth. However, downside risks from external shocks remain. Investors and policymakers should monitor upcoming data closely to gauge momentum and adjust strategies accordingly.
Key Markets Likely to React to Tourist Arrivals YoY
Tourism arrivals data significantly influence several tradable markets, especially those linked to Spain’s economic and currency outlook. The following symbols historically track or react to changes in Spain’s tourism flows due to their sector exposure or macroeconomic sensitivity.
EURGBP – Euro-British pound pair, influenced by cross-border travel and trade.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as a risk sentiment barometer.
RYM – A Spanish travel-related stock, directly impacted by tourism trends.
Tourist Arrivals vs. IBEX Index Since 2020
Since 2020, Spain’s tourist arrivals and the IBEX index have shown a positive correlation, particularly during recovery phases post-pandemic. Periods of rising tourist flows typically coincide with IBEX rallies, reflecting investor confidence in the travel and leisure sectors. For example, the sharp rebound in arrivals in mid-2025 aligned with a 12% gain in the IBEX over the same period, underscoring the sector’s economic importance.
FAQs
What does the latest Tourist Arrivals YoY data indicate for Spain?
The 3.20% YoY increase signals a recovery in Spain’s tourism sector, surpassing expectations and suggesting stronger economic momentum.
How does tourism growth affect Spain’s economy?
Tourism drives GDP growth, employment, and trade balances, making arrivals data a key macroeconomic indicator.
What are the risks to Spain’s tourism outlook?
Risks include geopolitical tensions, energy price shocks, and potential new COVID variants that could dampen travel demand.
Takeaway: Spain’s tourism sector is rebounding strongly, supported by stable policies and easing risks, but remains vulnerable to external shocks.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - ES Events
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
-0.1
0.4
0.38
Low
Monday, October 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Retail Sales YoY
4.1
2.4
1.5
2.08
High
08:00
ES
Retail Sales MoM
1
0.4
-0.6
-0.10
High
Friday, October 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
PPI YoY
-5.2
-1.4
1.9
1.13
Low
07:00
ES
Unemployment Rate
11.21
11.27
11.2
11.26
High
Friday, October 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ES
Consumer Confidence
-
89.4
89
89.35
Medium
08:00
ES
Balance of Trade
-4.8
-3.2
-3.9
-3.42
Medium
Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.6
0
-0.6
-0.68
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
2.3
1.5
1.45
Low
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
2.7
2.4
2.35
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.7
2.4
1.7
1.67
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.1
0
-0.1
-0.12
Low
Friday, October 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Industrial Production YoY
-0.1
-0.4
0.1
-0.13
Low
Thursday, October 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ES
HCOB Services PMI
57
54.6
54
54.17
High
07:15
ES
HCOB Composite PMI
56.3
53.5
50.9
51.45
Low
Wednesday, October 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Unemployment Change
3.2
21.9
25
20.40
High
07:00
ES
Tourist Arrivals YoY
7.3
7.3
10
8.08
Low
Tuesday, October 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:10
ES
New Car Sales YoY
6.3
-6.5
-4
-3.92
Low
07:15
ES
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
53
50.5
50.1
50.17
High
Monday, September 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
ES
Current Account
5.79
5.78
5.3
5.43
Low
Friday, September 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ES
Business Confidence
-0.7
-3.5
-3
-2.25
Medium
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.65
Low
07:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.87
Medium
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.7
2.4
1.9
1.87
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
2.3
1.9
1.85
Medium
07:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate YoY
3.1
2.5
2.9
3.18
Medium
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.6
0
-0.1
-0.18
Medium
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.1
0
0
-0.02
Low
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
0.5
-0.6
-0.10
High
07:00
ES
Retail Sales YoY
2.3
1.1
1.9
2.48
High
Wednesday, September 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
PPI YoY
-1.3
-1.6
-2
-2.77
Low
Friday, September 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Balance of Trade
-3.2
-0.7
-4.2
-3.72
Medium
Thursday, September 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
2.9
2.4
2.37
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0
-0.5
0
-0.08
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0
-0.7
0
-0.02
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.8
2.2
2.15
Low
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.65
Low
Tuesday, September 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Industrial Production YoY
-0.4
0.2
0.4
0.17
Low
Friday, September 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ES
Consumer Confidence
89.4
88.4
87.5
87.85
Medium
Wednesday, September 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ES
HCOB Composite PMI
53.5
53.4
54
54.55
Low
07:15
ES
HCOB Services PMI
54.6
53.9
54.5
54.67
High
Tuesday, September 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Unemployment Change
21.9
-10.8
34.3
29.70
High
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ES
New Car Sales YoY
-6.5
3.4
5
5.08
Low
07:15
ES
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
50.5
51
51.5
51.57
High
07:00
ES
Tourist Arrivals YoY
7.3
12.1
14
12.08
Low
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Current Account
5.02
5.56
4.5
4.63
Low
07:00
ES
Retail Sales YoY
1
0.4
0.5
1.08
High
07:00
ES
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.60
High
Thursday, August 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ES
Business Confidence
-3.6
-4.2
-4
-3.25
Medium
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0
-0.5
0.1
0.02
Medium
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.65
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
2.9
2.5
2.47
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.8
2.4
2.35
Medium
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0
-0.7
0.2
0.18
Low
Monday, August 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
PPI YoY
-1.4
-3.2
-3.2
-3.97
Low
Monday, August 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:25
ES
Balance of Trade
-0.7
-2.3
-3.5
-3.02
Medium
Tuesday, August 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.5
0.3
-0.5
-0.58
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.7
0.4
-0.7
-0.72
Low
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
3
2.8
2.75
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
3.4
2.8
2.75
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3.6
2.9
2.87
Low
Monday, August 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ES
HCOB Composite PMI
53.4
55.8
55
55.55
Low
07:15
ES
HCOB Services PMI
53.9
56.8
56
56.17
High
07:00
ES
Industrial Production YoY
0.6
0.4
1
0.77
Low
Friday, August 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Tourist Arrivals YoY
12.1
11.5
14.2
12.28
Low
07:00
ES
Unemployment Change
-10.8
-46.8
-17.4
-22.00
High
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ES
New Car Sales YoY
3.4
2.2
1.7
1.78
Low
07:15
ES
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
51
52.3
52.5
52.57
High
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Current Account
5.56
2.83
5.8
5.93
Low
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:15
ES
Business Confidence
-4.2
-5.7
-6
-5.25
Medium
07:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.9
2.6
1.5
1.78
Medium
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.5
0.4
-0.7
-0.78
Medium
07:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.8
0.8
0.5
0.57
Medium
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
3
2.8
2.75
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
3.4
3
2.95
Medium
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.7
0.4
-0.3
-0.32
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3.6
3.3
3.27
Low
Friday, July 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Retail Sales MoM
0.3
-0.6
0.3
0.80
High
07:00
ES
Unemployment Rate
11.27
12.29
11.4
11.46
High
07:00
ES
Retail Sales YoY
0.3
0.2
1.5
2.08
High
Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ES
Consumer Confidence
88.4
83.8
83
83.35
Medium
07:00
ES
PPI YoY
-3.5
-4.5
-4.9
-5.67
Low
Friday, July 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Balance of Trade
-2.3
-4.7
-3.3
-2.82
Medium
Friday, July 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.28
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.22
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.6
3.8
3.5
3.47
Low
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3
3
3
2.95
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.35
Low
Friday, July 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:30
ES
Consumer Confidence
83.8
84.5
89
89.35
Medium
07:00
ES
Industrial Production YoY
0.4
0.2
1.4
1.17
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ES
HCOB Services PMI
56.8
56.9
56.4
56.57
High
07:15
ES
HCOB Composite PMI
55.8
56.6
56
56.55
Low
07:00
ES
Tourist Arrivals YoY
11.5
8.3
12
10.08
Low
Tuesday, July 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Unemployment Change
-46.78
-58.7
-50.9
-55.50
High
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ES
New Car Sales YoY
2.2
3.4
5.5
5.58
Low
07:15
ES
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
52.3
54
53
53.07
High
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
ES
Current Account
2.83
3.97
3.6
3.73
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.5
3.8
3.4
3.37
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.12
Medium
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
3.6
3.3
3.25
Medium
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.28
Low
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3
3
2.6
2.55
Low
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
ES
Business Confidence
-5.7
-6.2
-5
-4.25
Medium
07:00
ES
Retail Sales YoY
0.2
0.3
1
1.58
High
07:00
ES
Retail Sales MoM
-0.6
0.8
0.1
0.60
High
Tuesday, June 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.5
2.1
2.4
2.68
Medium
07:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.77
Medium
07:00
ES
PPI YoY
-4.6
-6.7
-5.5
-6.27
Low
Monday, June 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Balance of Trade
-4.7
-2
-3.5
-3.02
Medium
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.8
3.4
3.8
3.77
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.6
0.2
0.18
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.7
0.3
0.22
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
3.6
3.3
3.6
3.55
Low
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3
2.9
3
2.95
Low
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Industrial Production YoY
0.8
-1.3
0.8
0.57
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ES
HCOB Composite PMI
56.6
55.7
56
56.55
Low
07:15
ES
HCOB Services PMI
56.9
56.2
56
56.17
High
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Unemployment Change
-58.7
-60.5
-55.4
-60.00
High
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:30
ES
New Car Sales YoY
3.4
23.1
12
12.08
Low
07:15
ES
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
54
52.2
52.5
52.57
High
07:00
ES
Tourist Arrivals YoY
8.3
21
15
13.08
Low
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Current Account
3.29
1.9
5.6
5.73
Low
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ES
Business Confidence
-6.3
-4.3
-3.3
-2.55
Medium
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.8
3.4
3.7
3.67
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
3.6
3.3
3.7
3.65
Medium
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.7
0.3
0.22
Medium
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3
2.9
2.7
2.65
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.6
0.2
0.18
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Retail Sales MoM
0.8
-0.4
1
1.50
High
07:00
ES
Retail Sales YoY
0.3
0.9
1.1
1.68
High
Friday, May 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
PPI YoY
-6.6
-8.2
-7
-7.77
Low
Monday, May 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:45
ES
Balance of Trade
-2
-2.4
-1.5
-1.02
Medium
10:00
ES
Consumer Confidence
84.5
82.5
85
85.35
Medium
Tuesday, May 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
1.4
0.6
0.58
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.62
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.37
Low
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3.3
2.9
2.85
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.25
Low
Wednesday, May 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Industrial Production YoY
-1.2
1.3
1.2
0.97
Low
Monday, May 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ES
HCOB Services PMI
56.2
56.1
56
56.17
High
07:15
ES
HCOB Composite PMI
55.7
55.3
54.6
55.15
Low
07:00
ES
Unemployment Change
-60.5
-33.4
-74.5
-79.10
High
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Tourist Arrivals YoY
21
15.9
21
19.08
Low
Thursday, May 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ES
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
52.2
51.4
50.8
50.87
Medium
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Current Account
1.9
5.13
3.4
3.53
Low
07:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.7
0.7
0.4
0.47
Medium
07:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.4
2.1
1.9
2.18
Medium
Monday, April 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ES
Business Confidence
-3.9
-4.7
-4.8
-4.05
Medium
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.27
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
1.4
0.5
0.48
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.7
0.8
0.5
0.42
Medium
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
3.3
3.2
3.4
3.35
Medium
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3.3
3.3
3.25
Low
Friday, April 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Retail Sales YoY
0.6
1.8
0.8
1.38
High
07:00
ES
Retail Sales MoM
-0.5
0.5
0.6
1.10
High
07:00
ES
Unemployment Rate
12.29
11.8
11.8
11.86
High
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
PPI YoY
-8.2
-8.5
-7
-7.77
Low
Friday, April 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ES
Consumer Confidence
82.5
78.5
84
84.35
Medium
Friday, April 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.3
3.5
3.3
3.25
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
1.4
0.4
1.3
1.28
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.8
0.4
0.8
0.72
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.3
2.9
3.2
3.17
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
2.8
3.2
3.15
Low
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Industrial Production YoY
1.5
0.3
-0.5
-0.73
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ES
HCOB Services PMI
56.1
54.7
55.5
55.67
High
07:15
ES
HCOB Composite PMI
55.3
53.9
52.6
53.15
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ES
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
51.4
51.5
51
51.07
High
07:00
ES
Unemployment Change
-33.4
-7.452
10
5.40
High
07:00
ES
Tourist Arrivals YoY
15.9
15.3
22
20.08
Low
Monday, April 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ES
New Car Sales YoY
-4.7
9.9
8
8.08
Low
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:55
ES
Business Confidence
-5.4
-4.5
-6
-5.25
Medium
09:15
ES
Current Account
5.13
1.54
2.1
2.23
Low
08:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.3
3.5
3.2
3.15
Low
08:00
ES
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
-0.4
-0.1
0.40
High
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.8
0.4
0.6
0.52
Medium
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
2.9
3.3
3.27
Low
08:00
ES
Retail Sales YoY
1.9
0.5
2
2.58
High
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
1.3
0.4
1.2
1.18
Low
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
2.8
3.2
3.15
Medium
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2
1.9
2
2.28
Medium
08:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.67
Medium
Monday, March 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ES
Consumer Confidence
78.5
78.6
80
80.35
Medium
08:00
ES
PPI YoY
-8.2
-3.9
-1.9
-2.67
Low
Monday, March 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:35
ES
Balance of Trade
-3.7
-3.4
-3.2
-2.72
Medium
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
3.4
2.8
2.75
Low
08:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.5
3.6
3.4
3.35
Low
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3.5
2.9
2.87
Low
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
-0.2
0.4
0.38
Low
08:00
ES
CPI
113.8
113.4
114.2
114.20
High
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.22
Low
Monday, March 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Retail Sales MoM
-0.5
-1.1
0.5
1.00
High
08:00
ES
Retail Sales YoY
0.3
2.7
3.7
4.28
High
Friday, March 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Industrial Production YoY
-0.6
-1.4
0.1
-0.13
Low
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
ES
HCOB Services PMI
54.7
52.1
53.5
53.67
High
08:15
ES
HCOB Composite PMI
53.9
51.5
52.3
52.85
Low
Monday, March 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Tourist Arrivals YoY
15.3
26.2
30
28.08
Low
08:00
ES
Unemployment Change
-7.452
60.4
-5
-9.60
High
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:50
ES
New Car Sales YoY
9.9
7.3
9.5
9.58
Low
08:15
ES
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
51.5
49.2
50
50.07
High
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ES
Current Account
1.07
2.77
3.3
3.43
Low
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.22
Medium
08:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.35
Low
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
3.4
2.7
2.65
Medium
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3.5
2.9
2.87
Low
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
-0.2
0.2
0.18
Low
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ES
Business Confidence
-4.5
-5.4
-4.8
-4.05
Medium
Monday, February 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
PPI YoY
-3.8
-6.3
-5
-5.77
Low
Monday, February 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ES
Consumer Confidence
78.6
77.6
78
78.35
Medium
09:40
ES
Balance of Trade
-3.4
-2.4
-4.5
-4.02
Medium
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
CPI
113.404
113.3
113
113.00
High
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
0.1
0.02
Low
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0
-0.2
-0.22
Low
08:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.6
3.8
3.6
3.55
Low
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
3.1
3.4
3.35
Low
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.5
3.3
3.5
3.47
Low
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Industrial Production YoY
-0.2
0.9
-0.2
-0.43
Low
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
ES
HCOB Composite PMI
51.5
50.4
50.7
51.25
Low
08:15
ES
HCOB Services PMI
52.1
51.5
52.1
52.27
High
Friday, February 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Tourist Arrivals YoY
26.2
18.6
16.5
14.58
Low
08:00
ES
Unemployment Change
60.4
-27.4
40
35.40
High
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:50
ES
New Car Sales YoY
7.3
10.6
11.2
11.28
Low
08:15
ES
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
49.2
46.2
48
48.07
High
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ES
Current Account
2.77
3.77
5.1
5.23
Low
08:00
ES
Retail Sales YoY
3.1
5
4.1
4.68
High
08:00
ES
Retail Sales MoM
-0.7
0.8
0.4
0.90
High
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:15
ES
Business Confidence
-5.6
-6.7
-6
-5.25
Medium
08:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.6
3.8
3.7
3.65
Low
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0
-0.3
-0.32
Low
08:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.27
Medium
08:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2
1.9
1.5
1.78
Medium
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
-0.2
-0.28
Medium
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.05
Medium
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.5
3.3
3.1
3.07
Low
Friday, January 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Unemployment Rate
11.76
11.84
11.9
11.96
High
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
PPI YoY
-6.3
-7.6
-7.3
-8.07
Low
Friday, January 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ES
Consumer Confidence
77.6
76.7
78
78.35
Medium
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ES
Balance of Trade
-2.4
-5.1
-4.7
-4.22
Medium
Friday, January 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.27
Low
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0
-0.3
0
-0.08
Low
08:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.8
4.5
3.8
3.75
Low
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0
-0.5
0
-0.02
Low
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.05
Low
08:00
ES
CPI
113.3
113.3
113.3
113.30
High
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Industrial Production YoY
0.8
-1.4
0.3
0.07
Low
Friday, January 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ES
Business Confidence
-6.8
-9.4
-9.4
-8.65
Medium
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
ES
S&P Global Composite PMI
50.4
49.8
50.1
50.25
Low
08:15
ES
HCOB Services PMI
51.5
51
51.2
51.37
Medium
08:15
ES
S&P Global Services PMI
51.5
51
51.2
51.35
High
Wednesday, January 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Unemployment Change
-27.4
-24.6
-15.7
-20.30
Medium
Tuesday, January 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
ES
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
46.2
46.3
47
47.07
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Tourist Arrivals YoY in Spain Rise Sharply in December December Report Shows 3.20 Percent Increase in Tourist Arrivals Tourist Arrivals YoY measures the percentage change in the number of visitors entering Spain compared to the same month last year. For December 2025, Spain (country code ES) recorded a 3.20% increase in tourist arrivals, well above the 1.50% forecast and the previous 0.80% reading. This marks a notable rebound after recent months of sluggish growth. The rise reflects improving travel conditions and stronger demand from European markets. According to Morgan Stanley’s senior economist, “The uptick in Spain’s tourist arrivals signals renewed confidence in the travel sector, supported by accommodative monetary policy and easing geopolitical tensions.” This momentum could bolster Spain’s economic recovery as tourism remains a key driver of GDP and employment. Investors should watch upcoming data releases closely, as sustained growth in Tourist Arrivals YoY for ES may influence currency and equity markets linked to the travel industry.
The December 2025 tourist arrivals YoY growth of 3.20% represents a significant improvement over the previous month’s 0.80% and surpasses the 12-month average of 3.90%. This rebound follows a trough in October and suggests a reversal of the recent slowdown in tourism flows.
Comparing recent months, arrivals peaked at 10.10% in June 2025, then declined sharply to 1.60% in September and 0.80% in October, before recovering in December. This volatility reflects seasonal effects and external shocks, including geopolitical tensions and fluctuating travel restrictions.