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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone CPI climbed to 103.7% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Eurozone CPI climbed to 103.7% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.46% from July's 103.24% reading. The reading matched expectations. CPI has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, CPI averaged 103.15%, vs 102.32% in the prior 3-month window. CPI is now the highest in 6 months.
Latest Release
103.7
Actual
103.6
Consensus
103.24
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.07 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 103.6
Actual: 103.7
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI (European Union) was reported at 103.7% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 103.6% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 103.24%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 113.87%, ranging from 100.05% to 129.7% across 21 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 103.39%, up from the prior three at 103.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 13.55%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.99%). In September readings over the past 3 years, CPI has averaged 122.92%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.07%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include ECB President Lagarde Speech (Sep 11) and ECB Lagarde Speech (Sep 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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CPI - EU
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About CPI — European Union
DEFINITION
CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is a widely used economic indicator that measures the average change in prices of goods and services purchased by households. It is an important tool for assessing inflation and the overall cost of living for consumers. The CPI is calculated by tracking the prices of a basket of goods and services over time, providing valuable insights into the current state of the economy and its impact on consumers. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions about economic trends and financial strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 103.7 %, consensus 103.6 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 103.2 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 103.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, September 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:15 | EU | Marginal Lending Rate | 2.9 | 2.65 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Low |
| 12:15 | EU | Interest Rate Decision | 2.65 | 2.4 | 2.65 | 2.65 | High |
| 12:15 | EU | Deposit Facility Rate | 2.5 | 2.25 | 2.5 | 2.50 | High |