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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Retail Sales YoY fell to 1.0% in April 2026
EurostatMonthlyReleased June 2026
Eurozone Retail Sales YoY fell to 1.0% in April 2026, released June 2026, down 1.1% from March's 2.1% reading. The print exceeded the 0.3% consensus by 0.7%. Retail Sales YoY has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged 1.45%, vs 1.87% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales YoY is now the lowest in 19 months.
Latest Release
1
Actual
0.3
Consensus
2.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.62 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.3
Actual: 1
Error: -0.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| EUR/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Bullish FTSE 100 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (European Union) was reported at 1% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.8%, ranging from 1% to 3.1% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.43%, down from the prior three at 1.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.65%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.96%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales YoY has averaged 1.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.63%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include ECB General Council Meeting (Jun 25) and ECB Economic Bulletin (Jun 25).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Retail Sales YoY - EU
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About Retail Sales YoY — European Union
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 1.2 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 1.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.56) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Monday, June 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | EU | Loans to Companies YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.65 | Low | |
| 08:00 | EU | M3 Money Supply YoY | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.75 | Low | |
| 08:00 | EU | Loans to Households YoY | 3 | 3.2 | 3.15 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 27.4 | 30 | 32.35 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -8 | -9 | -8.50 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 2.2 | -1 | -0.50 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 40.5 | 42 | 44.85 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 9.5 | 93.5 | 91.5 | 70.95 | Medium |