Bulgaria’s retail sales MoM rose 1.00% in November 2025, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure exceeded market expectations of 0.80% and improved on October’s flat 0.00% reading. Over the past 12 months, retail sales have averaged approximately 0.60% monthly growth, indicating a gradual strengthening of consumer spending.

Drivers this month

• Increased spending on food and beverages contributed 0.35 percentage points (pp).
• Non-durable goods purchases rose by 0.25 pp.
• Automotive and fuel sales added 0.15 pp.
• Declines in clothing and footwear slightly offset gains (-0.05 pp).

Policy pulse

The 1.00% growth rate aligns with the Bulgarian National Bank’s inflation target of 2% annual CPI, supporting a stable monetary policy stance. The central bank has maintained its key interest rate at 3.50% since September 2025, balancing inflation control with growth support.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Bulgarian lev (BGN) appreciated 0.30% against the euro within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, reflecting improved sentiment on domestic demand strength.

Retail sales are a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting household consumption, which accounts for roughly 60% of Bulgaria’s GDP. The 1.00% MoM increase in November 2025 is consistent with other foundational indicators signaling moderate economic expansion.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Bulgarian National Bank’s steady interest rate of 3.50% and contained inflation at 2.10% YoY have preserved favorable financial conditions. Credit growth to households remains stable at 4.20% YoY, supporting consumer spending capacity.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal policy remains moderately restrictive, with the government targeting a budget deficit of 2.50% of GDP in 2025. Public investment in infrastructure and social programs has been maintained, but limited fiscal stimulus constrains upside consumption risks.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Heightened geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and energy price volatility continue to pose downside risks. Bulgaria’s reliance on energy imports exposes consumers to inflationary pressures, which could dampen retail sales momentum if sustained.

Drivers this month

• Food and beverage sales surged 1.50% MoM, reflecting seasonal demand and stable prices.
• Fuel and automotive retail sales increased 1.20%, boosted by lower global oil prices.
• Clothing and footwear declined 0.40%, impacted by early winter discounting.

Policy pulse

The retail sales growth supports the central bank’s current monetary stance, suggesting no immediate need for rate hikes. Inflation remains near target, and consumer demand is robust enough to sustain growth without overheating.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Bulgarian lev strengthened modestly, while short-term bond yields fell, signaling market confidence in the economic outlook. Equity markets showed mild gains in consumer discretionary sectors.

Looking ahead, Bulgaria’s retail sales trajectory depends on several factors, including monetary policy, fiscal support, and external risks. We outline three scenarios for the next six months:

Bullish Scenario (30% probability)

• Retail sales accelerate to 1.20–1.50% MoM, driven by wage growth and stable inflation.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting credit expansion.
• Geopolitical tensions ease, lowering energy costs and boosting consumer confidence.

Base Scenario (50% probability)

• Retail sales grow steadily at 0.80–1.00% MoM, consistent with recent trends.
• Monetary policy remains unchanged, with inflation near target.
• Fiscal policy remains neutral, with no major stimulus or austerity.

Bearish Scenario (20% probability)

• Retail sales slow to 0.30–0.50% MoM due to rising inflation and energy prices.
• Monetary tightening occurs if inflation spikes above 3%.
• Geopolitical shocks disrupt supply chains and consumer confidence.

Overall, the base case suggests moderate but sustained consumer spending growth, supporting Bulgaria’s economic expansion into 2026.

Bulgaria’s November 2025 retail sales MoM growth of 1.00% signals a strengthening domestic economy. The data from the Sigmanomics database confirms a rebound from October’s flat reading and outperforms market expectations. This momentum, supported by stable monetary policy and manageable inflation, bodes well for GDP growth in the near term.

However, risks from geopolitical tensions and fiscal constraints remain. Policymakers should monitor inflation and external shocks closely to sustain consumer confidence. Financial markets have reacted positively, with the lev appreciating and bond yields declining, reflecting optimism about Bulgaria’s economic resilience.

In summary, Bulgaria’s retail sector is trending upward, providing a solid foundation for broader economic stability and growth in 2026.

Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales MoM

Bulgaria’s retail sales data is closely watched by currency, bond, and equity markets. The following tradable symbols historically track or influence the retail sales indicator due to their economic linkages:

• EURBGN – The Bulgarian lev’s exchange rate against the euro often reacts to retail sales data, reflecting shifts in economic sentiment.
• OMXS30 – Nordic consumer stocks correlate with regional retail trends impacting Bulgaria’s trade partners.
• ATVI – Consumer discretionary stocks like ATVI respond to shifts in consumer spending patterns.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price sometimes reflects risk appetite changes linked to economic data releases.
• USDBGN – The USD/BGN pair moves on macroeconomic shifts affecting Bulgaria’s external trade and capital flows.

Extras: Retail Sales vs. EURBGN Exchange Rate Since 2020

Since 2020, Bulgaria’s retail sales MoM growth has shown a positive correlation with the EURBGN exchange rate. Periods of rising retail sales often coincide with a strengthening lev against the euro, reflecting improved domestic demand and investor confidence. For example, the 1.00% retail sales increase in November 2025 was accompanied by a 0.30% appreciation of the lev. This relationship underscores the importance of consumer spending as a driver of currency strength in Bulgaria.

FAQs

What is the latest Retail Sales MoM figure for Bulgaria?

The most recent retail sales MoM figure for Bulgaria is 1.00% for November 2025, exceeding the 0.80% estimate and prior month’s 0.00%.

How does the Retail Sales MoM impact Bulgaria’s economy?

Retail sales reflect consumer demand, a key driver of GDP. Strong retail growth supports economic expansion and influences monetary policy decisions.

What are the risks to Bulgaria’s retail sales outlook?

Risks include rising inflation, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal constraints, which could dampen consumer spending and slow retail growth.

Final Takeaway: Bulgaria’s retail sales rebound to 1.00% MoM in November 2025 signals resilient consumer demand and a positive economic trajectory, though vigilance is needed amid external risks.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Updated 12/5/25