Colombia’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for December 2025, released January 14, 2026, climbed to 19.90%, well above the consensus estimate of 15.00% and up from November’s 17.00%. This reading signals a robust improvement in consumer sentiment, reflecting growing optimism about economic conditions and personal finances. The index has rebounded strongly from negative territory earlier in 2025, including May’s low of -8.60%, and now stands well above the 12-month average of approximately 5.00%.

Drivers This Month

• Improved labor market conditions with unemployment steady near 11.20%.
• Moderating inflation, easing to 5.10% year-over-year in December from 6.00% in October.
• Stable interest rates following the Central Bank’s pause in December.
• Fiscal stimulus measures supporting household incomes.

Policy Pulse

The Central Bank of Colombia maintained its benchmark interest rate at 9.50% in December, signaling confidence in inflation’s downward trajectory. Consumer confidence’s rise aligns with this policy stance, suggesting that monetary conditions are neither too tight nor overly accommodative. Fiscal policy remains expansionary but cautious, with government budget deficits narrowing slightly to 3.80% of GDP in Q4 2025.

Market Lens

Financial markets reacted positively to the CCI release. The ECOPETROL stock rallied 1.30% in early trading, reflecting improved domestic demand expectations. The Colombian peso (COP) strengthened against the USD, with the USDCOP pair dropping 0.40%. Local bond yields remained stable, indicating balanced risk sentiment.

Consumer confidence is a leading indicator of household spending, which accounts for roughly 60% of Colombia’s GDP. The December 2025 reading of 19.90% represents a 17.10% month-over-month increase from November’s 17.00% and a dramatic turnaround from the negative readings seen in mid-2025. Year-over-year, the index is up from -3.80% in December 2024, underscoring a significant recovery in consumer mood.

Comparative Historical Context

• December 2025: 19.90%
• November 2025: 17.00%
• October 2025: 1.60%
• September 2025: -2.40%
• 12-month average (Jan-Dec 2025): ~5.00%

Macroeconomic Correlations

The rise in consumer confidence correlates with easing inflation pressures, which fell from 6.00% in October to 5.10% in December. This has improved real income prospects and purchasing power. The unemployment rate has stabilized near 11.20%, supporting household income stability. Meanwhile, retail sales grew 1.80% month-over-month in December, consistent with the sentiment improvement.

Monetary & Fiscal Policy Overview

The Central Bank’s decision to hold rates steady at 9.50% in December reflects confidence in inflation’s moderation. Fiscal policy remains supportive, with the government maintaining targeted social spending programs while gradually reducing the budget deficit from 4.50% of GDP in mid-2025 to 3.80% in Q4. This balance supports consumer confidence without overheating the economy.

What This Chart Tells Us

Market Lens

Immediate reaction: The Colombian peso strengthened against the USD, with the USDCOP pair falling 0.40% within the first hour post-release. The local equity market, led by ECOPETROL, gained 1.30%, reflecting improved domestic demand expectations. Bond yields remained steady, indicating balanced risk sentiment.

Looking ahead, Colombia’s consumer confidence trajectory suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for household spending and economic growth in 2026. However, several factors could influence this path.

Bullish Scenario (30% Probability)

• Inflation continues to moderate below 5%, boosting real incomes.
• Labor market strengthens, pushing unemployment below 10.50%.
• Fiscal stimulus expands moderately, supporting consumption.
• Geopolitical risks remain contained, preserving market stability.

Base Scenario (50% Probability)

• Inflation stabilizes around 5%, limiting real income gains.
• Unemployment remains near current levels (~11%).
• Fiscal policy remains neutral, with gradual deficit reduction.
• External shocks cause mild volatility but no major disruptions.

Bearish Scenario (20% Probability)

• Inflationary pressures re-emerge, eroding purchasing power.
• Labor market weakens, pushing unemployment above 12%.
• Fiscal tightening reduces disposable income.
• Geopolitical tensions or commodity price shocks disrupt markets.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Colombia’s consumer confidence has shown resilience despite global uncertainties. Structural reforms aimed at improving labor market flexibility and social safety nets may underpin longer-term sentiment gains. However, demographic shifts and income inequality remain challenges for sustained consumption growth.

December 2025’s Consumer Confidence Index reading of 19.90% marks a significant milestone for Colombia’s economic outlook. The strong rebound from mid-2025’s lows reflects improving macroeconomic fundamentals, supportive monetary and fiscal policies, and a more stable external environment. While risks remain, the data suggest a foundation for stronger consumer spending and GDP growth in 2026.

Policymakers and investors should monitor inflation trends, labor market developments, and geopolitical risks closely. The balance of upside and downside risks points to a cautiously optimistic near-term outlook, with consumer confidence serving as a key barometer of Colombia’s economic health.

Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence is a critical driver of Colombia’s economic activity and financial markets. The following tradable symbols historically track or influence consumer sentiment and are likely to react to changes in the index:

• ECOPETROL – Colombia’s largest oil company, sensitive to domestic economic conditions and consumer demand.
• USDCOP – The USD/COP currency pair reflects foreign exchange market sentiment tied to Colombia’s macroeconomic outlook.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often moves inversely to risk sentiment, providing a barometer for risk appetite linked to consumer confidence.
• BANCOLOMBIA – A major Colombian bank whose stock price correlates with consumer credit demand and economic activity.
• EURUSD – The Euro-Dollar pair can reflect broader emerging market risk sentiment, indirectly impacting Colombia’s financial conditions.

Consumer Confidence vs. ECOPETROL Price Since 2020

Since 2020, Colombia’s Consumer Confidence Index and ECOPETROL’s stock price have shown a positive correlation. Periods of rising consumer confidence often coincide with upward trends in ECOPETROL shares, reflecting improved domestic demand and economic growth expectations. This relationship underscores the importance of consumer sentiment as a leading indicator for Colombia’s equity markets.

FAQ

What does the December 2025 Consumer Confidence reading indicate about Colombia’s economy?

The 19.90% reading signals strong consumer optimism, suggesting increased household spending and positive GDP growth prospects in early 2026.

How does consumer confidence affect financial markets in Colombia?

Higher consumer confidence tends to boost equities like ECOPETROL and strengthen the COP currency, reflecting improved economic outlook and risk sentiment.

What are the main risks to Colombia’s consumer confidence outlook?

Risks include inflation resurgence, labor market weakness, fiscal tightening, and external geopolitical shocks that could dampen consumer sentiment.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Updated 1/14/26