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Data from ZEW / IFO / GfK. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell to 28.1 Points in October 2026
ZEW / IFO / GfKMonthlyReleased October 2026
Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell to 28.1 Points in October 2026, down 6.6 Points from September's 34.7 Points reading. The reading missed the 30 Points consensus by 1.9 Points. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 11.2 Points. Over the past 3 months, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index averaged 34.45 Points, vs 0.15 Points in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 46th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
28.1
Actual
30
Consensus
34.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±8.45
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 30.48
Actual: 28.1
Error: +2.38
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Germany) was reported at 28.10 Points in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 30.00 Points by 1.90 Points. The reading fell from the previous value of 34.70 Points. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 29.90 Points, ranging from -10.20 Points to 59.60 Points across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 32.33 Points, up from the prior three at -0.07 Points. Volatility over the past year (σ 22.29 Points) is higher than the prior year (σ 19.30 Points). In October readings over the past 3 years, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index has averaged 26.83 Points.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, negatively correlated (Bearish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 8.45 Points.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Ifo Business Climate (Oct 26) and Consumer Confidence (Oct 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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ZEW Economic Sentiment Index - DE
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About ZEW Economic Sentiment Index — Germany
DEFINITION
The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among financial experts and analysts regarding the economic outlook of a particular country. It provides valuable insights into future economic trends and can be used as a reliable tool for making informed investment decisions. The index is based on a monthly survey of over 300 experts and is considered a key indicator of economic sentiment in the financial world.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 28.1 Points, consensus 30 Points. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 34.7 Points. Before that (Aug 2026): 34.2 Points.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.56) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Friday, October 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:30 | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.2 | 53.9 | 53.5 | 53.85 | High |
| 07:30 | DE | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.7 | 52.9 | 52.5 | 52.10 | Medium |
| 07:30 | DE | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52.8 | 53.8 | 53.3 | 53.05 | Medium |
| Monday, October 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | DE | Ifo Business Climate | 89.9 | 89.8 | 90.10 | High | |
| 09:00 | DE | Ifo Current Conditions | 89.5 | 89.4 | 89.00 | Low | |
| 09:00 | DE | Ifo Expectations | 90.4 | 89.9 | 90.85 | Low | |
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | DE | Consumer Confidence | -30.6 | -29.1 | -29.10 | High | |