ES Consumer Confidence for December 2025 Dips to 76.00, Below Estimates and Prior Month
Key Takeaways: December 2025 Consumer Confidence in ES fell to 76.00, missing the 79.00 estimate and declining from November’s 78.70. This marks a downward shift from the recent peak of 82.90 in September 2025 and sits below the 12-month average of 78.30. The drop reflects growing concerns amid tighter monetary policy, fiscal tightening, and external geopolitical tensions. Financial markets showed muted initial reaction, but risks to near-term growth remain elevated.
Table of Contents
The latest Consumer Confidence reading for ES, released on January 9, 2026, covers December 2025 data. The index registered 76.00, down from November’s 78.70 and below the consensus estimate of 79.00, according to the Sigmanomics database. This decline signals a cautious mood among consumers as the year closes, reflecting a combination of domestic and external pressures.
Drivers this month
- Rising borrowing costs due to recent monetary tightening.
- Fiscal consolidation measures reducing disposable income growth.
- Heightened geopolitical risks affecting energy prices and supply chains.
Policy pulse
Consumer sentiment now sits below the 12-month average of 78.30, indicating a weakening confidence backdrop. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) continued rate hikes to combat inflation have tightened financial conditions, dampening consumer spending appetite.
Market lens
Initial market reaction was subdued, with the EURUSD pair slipping marginally by 0.10% in the first hour post-release. Short-term yields on the ES10Y government bond remained steady, reflecting cautious investor positioning amid mixed economic signals.
Consumer Confidence is a leading indicator of household spending, which accounts for roughly 60% of ES GDP. The December 2025 reading of 76.00 compares unfavorably to prior months: November’s 78.70, October’s 81.50, and September’s 82.90. The downward trend over the last quarter highlights growing consumer unease.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The ECB’s policy rate increased by 25 basis points in December 2025, marking the sixth consecutive hike. This has pushed borrowing costs higher, with mortgage rates rising above 3.50% on average. Tighter credit conditions have directly impacted consumer willingness to spend on durable goods and housing.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal tightening measures implemented in late 2025, including reduced subsidies and higher indirect taxes, have constrained disposable incomes. The government’s budget deficit narrowed to 2.10% of GDP in Q4 2025 from 2.80% in Q3, signaling a shift towards consolidation that weighs on consumer sentiment.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Persistent geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions have elevated energy prices by 8% month-over-month in December. This inflationary pressure erodes real incomes and adds uncertainty to consumer outlooks.
What This Chart Tells Us
The downward trajectory in Consumer Confidence suggests consumers are increasingly cautious amid tightening financial conditions and inflationary pressures. The reversal from the September peak indicates that prior optimism has faded, raising concerns about near-term consumption growth and its impact on ES’s economic momentum.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The EURUSD dipped 0.10%, while the ES10Y yield held steady. The BTCUSD crypto pair showed minor volatility, reflecting risk-off sentiment. The GBPUSD and DAX indices also exhibited muted responses, indicating market participants are awaiting further economic data for clearer direction.
Looking ahead, consumer confidence in ES faces several possible trajectories. The baseline scenario (60% probability) assumes continued moderate monetary tightening and stable fiscal policy, with confidence stabilizing around 75–77 in early 2026. This would support modest consumption growth but limit upside surprises.
Bullish scenario (20%)
- Inflation eases faster than expected, allowing the ECB to pause rate hikes.
- Fiscal stimulus measures are introduced to support households.
- Geopolitical tensions ease, reducing energy price volatility.
- Consumer Confidence rebounds above 80 by Q2 2026, boosting spending.
Bearish scenario (20%)
- Inflation remains sticky, prompting further ECB tightening.
- Fiscal austerity deepens, squeezing disposable incomes.
- Geopolitical risks escalate, causing energy shocks and supply disruptions.
- Consumer Confidence falls below 70, risking contraction in consumption and GDP.
Risks and Opportunities
Upside risks include a faster-than-expected inflation decline and policy support, while downside risks center on prolonged inflation, fiscal drag, and geopolitical shocks. Monitoring upcoming inflation prints, ECB communications, and fiscal policy updates will be critical.
December 2025’s Consumer Confidence reading of 76.00 for ES highlights a cautious consumer landscape amid tightening monetary and fiscal conditions. The decline from prior months and below the 12-month average signals potential headwinds for consumption-driven growth in early 2026. While markets initially reacted mildly, the evolving macro backdrop warrants close attention as risks remain skewed to the downside.
Policymakers face a delicate balancing act between curbing inflation and sustaining consumer demand. The trajectory of confidence will be a key barometer for economic resilience in the months ahead.
Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence
Consumer Confidence data often influences currency pairs, bond yields, equity indices, and crypto markets sensitive to economic sentiment. The following symbols historically track ES consumer sentiment closely and are expected to react to shifts in confidence:
- EURUSD – The primary currency pair reflecting ES economic health and monetary policy expectations.
- ES10Y – Long-term government bond yields respond to growth and inflation outlooks.
- DAX – Major ES equity index sensitive to consumer spending trends.
- GBPUSD – Regional currency pair influenced by ES economic developments.
- BTCUSD – Crypto asset often reflecting risk sentiment shifts tied to macroeconomic data.
Insight: Consumer Confidence vs. ES10Y Yields Since 2020
Since 2020, Consumer Confidence in ES has shown an inverse correlation with ES10Y yields during periods of monetary tightening. Rising yields typically coincide with falling confidence as borrowing costs increase. The recent December 2025 dip in confidence aligns with stable but elevated ES10Y yields near 2.50%, underscoring the sensitivity of consumer sentiment to financial conditions.
FAQs
- What does the December 2025 Consumer Confidence reading indicate for ES?
- The 76.00 reading suggests weakening consumer sentiment amid tighter monetary and fiscal policies, signaling cautious spending ahead.
- How does this data impact monetary policy expectations?
- Lower confidence may temper ECB rate hikes if consumption slows significantly, but persistent inflation risks keep tightening on the table.
- Which markets are most sensitive to Consumer Confidence changes in ES?
- Currency pairs like EURUSD, government bonds such as ES10Y, and equity indices like DAX typically react to shifts in consumer sentiment.
Final takeaway: December’s Consumer Confidence decline to 76.00 marks a cautionary signal for ES’s economic outlook, emphasizing the need for vigilant policy calibration amid persistent inflation and geopolitical risks.
Updated 1/9/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The December 2025 Consumer Confidence index at 76.00 marks a 3.30% decline from November’s 78.70 and stands 2.90 points below the 12-month average of 78.90. This represents the lowest reading since August 2025’s 76.10, reversing a three-month upward trend from September’s 82.90 peak.
Comparing December 2025 to October 2025’s 81.50, the index has dropped 6.70 points, signaling a marked deterioration in consumer sentiment over the last two months. The year-over-year comparison to December 2024’s 77.20 also shows a slight decline, underscoring persistent headwinds.