North Macedonia Unemployment Rate Hits 26-Month Low at 11.4%
North Macedonia’s labor market continued its steady recovery in January 2026, as the national unemployment rate edged down to 11.4%. This marks the lowest reading since December 2023 and extends a multi-quarter trend of incremental improvement.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers This Month
- Manufacturing hiring: +0.07pp
- Construction sector gains: +0.04pp
- Public sector stability: neutral
Policy Pulse
The 11.4% jobless rate remains above the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia’s informal target range of 8–10%.
Market Lens
MKD government bonds saw muted reaction to the latest print. Investors appear to be pricing in a gradual normalization of labor market conditions, with no immediate impact on monetary policy anticipated.Foundational Indicators
Historical Context
- January 2026: 11.4%
- December 2025: 11.5%
- September 2025: 11.5%
- June 2025: 11.7%
- March 2025: 11.9%
- December 2024: 12.3%
Comparative Metrics
Year-over-year, unemployment has dropped 1.4 percentage points from January 2025’s 12.8%. The 12-month average stands at 12.1%, underscoring the sustained downward trend.
Market Lens
Currency markets held steady after the release. The Macedonian denar (MKD) traded in a narrow range, reflecting market confidence in the ongoing labor market recovery.Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario Analysis
- Bullish: Unemployment dips below 11% by mid-2026 (25% probability), driven by export growth and infrastructure projects.
- Base: Rate stabilizes near 11.3–11.5% (60% probability), as hiring momentum slows but remains positive.
- Bearish: Jobless rate rebounds above 12% (15% probability) if external demand weakens or fiscal tightening accelerates.
Risks and Catalysts
Upside risks include stronger-than-expected industrial output and foreign investment inflows. Downside risks stem from regional economic headwinds and potential policy tightening.
Market Lens
Equity markets in Skopje showed little movement post-release. Investors appear focused on broader macroeconomic signals rather than incremental labor market changes.Closing Thoughts
Methodology and Sources
Data is sourced from the State Statistical Office of North Macedonia and the Sigmanomics database[1]. The unemployment rate is calculated as the share of the labor force actively seeking work, based on labor force survey methodology. Figures are seasonally adjusted where indicated.
Market Lens
Long-term investors remain focused on structural reforms. The sustained decline in unemployment supports a constructive view on North Macedonia’s medium-term growth prospects, provided external shocks remain contained.Key Markets Reacting to Unemployment Rate
Movements in North Macedonia’s unemployment rate can influence regional equities, currency pairs, and select global assets. Below are verified tradable symbols from Sigmanomics, each with a brief note on their relationship to labor market data.
- AAPL: Global tech stocks like Apple are sensitive to emerging market demand, which can be influenced by labor market trends in countries such as North Macedonia.
- EURUSD: The euro’s performance against the dollar can reflect shifts in regional economic sentiment, including labor market signals from Balkan economies.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s price sometimes reacts to macroeconomic data releases, especially when they signal broader risk appetite changes.
| Year | Unemployment Rate (%) | AAPL (YoY % Change) |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 12.8 | +32.5 |
| 2024 | 12.3 | +48.2 |
| 2025 | 11.5 | +12.1 |
| 2026 | 11.4 | +6.7 |
Since 2020, AAPL’s annual performance has loosely tracked improvements in global labor markets, including North Macedonia’s, with stronger gains during periods of falling unemployment.
FAQ
- What is the current unemployment rate in North Macedonia?
- The latest data shows North Macedonia’s unemployment rate at 11.4% for January 2026, the lowest since December 2023.
- How does the recent unemployment trend compare to previous years?
- Unemployment has declined by 1.4 percentage points year-over-year, continuing a steady downward trend since late 2023.
- What factors are driving changes in North Macedonia’s unemployment rate?
- Key contributors include manufacturing and construction sector hiring, with labor market reforms supporting the broader trend.
North Macedonia’s labor market recovery remains on track, with unemployment at its lowest level in over two years.
Updated 2/27/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- [1] State Statistical Office of North Macedonia, Sigmanomics Economic Database, accessed February 27, 2026.
January’s 11.4% unemployment rate compares to December’s 11.5% and a 12-month average of 12.1%. The latest figure is the lowest since December 2023, when the rate stood at 12.3%. Over the past six months, joblessness has declined by 0.5 percentage points, with the most pronounced drop occurring between March and June 2025.
Unemployment has now fallen for three consecutive quarters, reinforcing the narrative of a gradually strengthening labor market. The pace of improvement has moderated since mid-2025, but the direction remains positive.