Poland’s Consumer Confidence index for November 2025 was reported at -9.90, unchanged from October’s -9.90, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database released on December 17, 2025. This reading slightly outperformed the consensus estimate of -10.30, indicating a stable but cautious consumer mood. Compared to six months prior, in May 2025, when confidence stood at -7.50, the current level reflects a modest deterioration. Year-over-year, November 2024’s figure was -8.20, showing a gradual decline in sentiment over the past 12 months.

Drivers this month

• Persistent inflationary pressures continue to erode purchasing power.
• Monetary policy tightening by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) has raised borrowing costs.
• Fiscal consolidation efforts have limited disposable income growth.
• Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe add uncertainty to consumer outlooks.

Policy pulse

The NBP’s key interest rate remains at 7.00%, unchanged since September 2025, reflecting a cautious stance to tame inflation without stifling growth. Consumer confidence at -9.90 remains below the neutral zero mark, signaling subdued optimism but no sharp deterioration. This aligns with the central bank’s inflation target of 2.50%, which remains elusive as headline inflation hovers near 6%.

Market lens

Following the release, the Polish zloty (PLN) showed minor strengthening against the euro, while 2-year government bond yields edged down by 5 basis points, suggesting markets view the steady confidence reading as a sign of macro stability rather than deterioration.

Consumer confidence is a leading indicator of household spending, which accounts for roughly 55% of Poland’s GDP. The current index level of -9.90, while negative, is consistent with moderate economic growth expectations. Core macroeconomic indicators provide context:

GDP Growth

Poland’s GDP growth slowed to an annualized 2.10% in Q3 2025, down from 3.00% in Q2, reflecting weaker domestic demand and external headwinds.

Inflation & Employment

Inflation remains elevated at 5.90% year-over-year in November 2025, driven by energy and food prices. Unemployment held steady at 5.20%, near historic lows, supporting consumer income stability despite inflation pressures.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The National Bank of Poland’s steady interest rate at 7.00% since September 2025 aims to anchor inflation expectations. Credit growth has slowed to 3.50% year-over-year, reflecting tighter financial conditions and cautious lending.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal consolidation efforts continue, with the government targeting a deficit reduction to 2.50% of GDP in 2025, down from 3.10% in 2024. This limits stimulus but supports medium-term debt sustainability.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, weigh on consumer sentiment through energy price volatility and trade uncertainties.

Drivers this month

• Stable employment supports consumer income expectations.
• Inflation remains a key concern, limiting discretionary spending.
• Energy price volatility adds uncertainty to household budgets.

Policy pulse

The NBP’s unchanged policy rate and cautious forward guidance have helped stabilize financial conditions, preventing sharper declines in confidence.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: PLN/USD strengthened 0.10% post-release, while 2-year Polish government bond yields fell 5 basis points, reflecting market relief at stable consumer sentiment.

Looking ahead, Poland’s consumer confidence trajectory will hinge on several factors:

Bullish Scenario (30% probability)

• Inflation moderates toward the NBP’s 2.50% target by mid-2026.
• Fiscal policy shifts to targeted stimulus supporting disposable incomes.
• Geopolitical tensions ease, stabilizing energy prices.
• Consumer confidence rebounds above -5, fueling stronger consumption growth.

Base Scenario (50% probability)

• Inflation remains sticky near 4-5% through 2026.
• Monetary policy stays restrictive but data-dependent.
• Fiscal consolidation continues with limited stimulus.
• Consumer confidence hovers around -9 to -10, maintaining cautious spending.

Bearish Scenario (20% probability)

• Inflation spikes due to renewed energy shocks or supply disruptions.
• Monetary tightening intensifies, raising borrowing costs further.
• Geopolitical risks escalate, undermining consumer sentiment.
• Consumer confidence falls below -15, triggering weaker consumption and growth.

Overall, the outlook remains balanced but tilted toward caution. Policymakers face the challenge of managing inflation without derailing growth, while consumers navigate a complex environment of price pressures and geopolitical uncertainty.

Poland’s Consumer Confidence index for November 2025, stable at -9.90, reflects a resilient but cautious consumer base amid persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. The Sigmanomics database confirms that while confidence has softened over the past year, it has not deteriorated sharply in recent months. This suggests consumers are adapting to tighter financial conditions and fiscal restraint.

Monetary policy remains a key lever, with the National Bank of Poland maintaining a steady rate to balance inflation control and growth support. Fiscal policy’s focus on deficit reduction limits stimulus but underpins medium-term stability. External shocks, particularly energy price volatility and geopolitical tensions, remain downside risks.

Financial markets’ muted reaction to the confidence print underscores a broadly balanced risk environment. Looking forward, consumer sentiment will be a critical barometer for Poland’s economic trajectory, with inflation dynamics and geopolitical developments shaping the path.

Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence in Poland is closely watched by equity, currency, and fixed income markets. Changes in sentiment often presage shifts in consumption, impacting corporate earnings and economic growth forecasts. The following tradable symbols historically correlate with Poland’s consumer confidence trends and are likely to react to future data releases:

• WKDP – A major Polish retail stock sensitive to consumer spending trends.
• EURPLN – The euro-to-zloty currency pair, reflecting cross-border capital flows and sentiment.
• USDCAD – While not directly linked, it serves as a proxy for commodity price sensitivity affecting Poland’s trade balance.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reflects global risk appetite, which can influence emerging market sentiment.
• PKN – A leading Polish energy company impacted by consumer energy demand and prices.

FAQs

What does Poland’s Consumer Confidence index indicate?

The index measures household sentiment about the economy and personal finances, signaling future consumption trends.

How does consumer confidence affect Poland’s economy?

Higher confidence typically leads to increased spending, boosting GDP growth, while lower confidence can signal economic slowdown.

What factors influence consumer confidence in Poland?

Key drivers include inflation, employment, monetary and fiscal policies, and geopolitical risks impacting economic stability.

In summary, Poland’s Consumer Confidence at -9.90 in November 2025 signals a cautious but stable consumer outlook amid inflation and geopolitical pressures. Policymakers and investors should monitor inflation trends and external risks closely, as these will shape the trajectory of consumer sentiment and economic growth in the coming months.

Updated 12/17/25

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.