Romania's Retail Sales MoM for December 2025: A Tepid 0.10% Rise Signals Cautious Consumer Spending
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Romania's retail sales for December 2025 edged up by a modest 0.10% month-over-month (MoM), according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure fell well short of the 0.70% consensus estimate and followed a 1.10% decline in November 2025. The subdued growth highlights persistent consumer caution amid mixed macroeconomic signals and evolving financial conditions.
Drivers this month
- Core retail sectors showed marginal improvement, with food and beverages stabilizing after prior volatility.
- Non-essential goods sales remained flat, reflecting restrained discretionary spending.
- Holiday season effects were weaker than usual, dampening typical year-end retail boosts.
Policy pulse
The 0.10% rise comes as Romania’s central bank maintains a cautious monetary stance, keeping interest rates elevated to combat inflationary pressures. This restrained retail growth aligns with the central bank’s inflation targeting framework, suggesting limited consumer price pass-through so far.
Market lens
Following the release, the Romanian leu (RON) showed mild depreciation against the euro, while short-term government bond yields edged slightly higher, reflecting market skepticism about near-term consumption momentum.
December’s retail sales growth of 0.10% MoM contrasts sharply with prior months’ swings. October 2025 saw a steep 4.00% contraction, while November rebounded with a 1.30% increase. The 12-month average retail sales growth stands at approximately 0.05%, indicating that December’s reading is only marginally above the longer-term trend.
Historical context
- August 2025 posted the strongest recent growth at 1.10%, boosted by summer tourism and seasonal demand.
- September and July 2025 showed moderate gains of 0.30% and -0.10%, respectively, reflecting volatility in consumer confidence.
- Year-over-year (YoY), December 2025 retail sales are roughly flat compared to December 2024, signaling stagnation in real consumer spending power.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The National Bank of Romania (NBR) has held its key policy rate steady at 7.50% since mid-2025, aiming to tame inflation which remains above the 2% target. Elevated borrowing costs have constrained consumer credit growth, limiting retail expansion. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures from energy and food prices have eroded real incomes, curbing discretionary spending.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal stimulus remains muted as the government focuses on deficit reduction and debt sustainability. Limited fiscal transfers and restrained public sector wage growth have contributed to the tepid retail sales performance. The 2025 budget underspent on social support programs, further dampening household disposable income.
What This Chart Tells Us
The retail sales trend is stabilizing after a turbulent autumn, but growth remains fragile. The data points to a consumer base cautious about spending, likely influenced by inflation, tighter credit, and subdued fiscal support. Without stronger momentum, retail sales may struggle to drive broader economic growth in early 2026.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/RON rose 0.15% post-release, reflecting investor disappointment. The 2-year Romanian government bond yield increased by 5 basis points, signaling concerns over slower domestic demand and potential pressure on fiscal revenues.
Looking ahead, Romania’s retail sales trajectory faces several headwinds and opportunities. Inflation is expected to moderate gradually, potentially easing pressure on real incomes. However, persistent geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe and global supply chain disruptions could restrain consumer confidence.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Inflation falls faster than expected, boosting real wages.
- Monetary policy eases in H2 2026, lowering borrowing costs.
- Fiscal stimulus increases, supporting household incomes.
- Retail sales accelerate above 1.00% MoM by mid-2026.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Inflation declines slowly, keeping real incomes flat.
- Monetary policy remains restrictive through 2026.
- Fiscal policy stays neutral, with limited stimulus.
- Retail sales hover around 0.10% to 0.30% MoM growth.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting trade and confidence.
- Inflation spikes again due to energy price shocks.
- Credit conditions tighten further, reducing consumer spending.
- Retail sales contract by 0.50% or more MoM in coming months.
Romania’s December 2025 retail sales growth of 0.10% MoM signals a cautious consumer environment amid ongoing macroeconomic challenges. While the slight uptick from November’s decline offers some relief, the data underscores the fragility of domestic demand. Monetary restraint, fiscal prudence, and external uncertainties will likely keep retail sales growth subdued in the near term. Policymakers face a delicate balance between supporting growth and maintaining price stability.
Continued monitoring of inflation trends, credit conditions, and geopolitical developments will be critical to assessing Romania’s economic outlook. Retail sales remain a key barometer of household health and broader economic momentum, warranting close attention in 2026.
Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales MoM
Romania’s retail sales data typically influences several financial markets, reflecting the country’s economic pulse. Key symbols to watch include:
- FP – Romania’s largest oil and gas company, sensitive to domestic consumption trends.
- EURRON – The euro to Romanian leu currency pair, which reacts to shifts in economic sentiment.
- USDRON – The US dollar to Romanian leu pair, reflecting broader risk appetite and capital flows.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often correlates inversely with risk-off sentiment affecting emerging markets.
- BRD – A major Romanian bank, whose stock price is sensitive to consumer credit trends and retail spending.
Retail Sales vs. EURRON Exchange Rate Since 2020
Since 2020, Romania’s retail sales growth has shown a moderate positive correlation with the EURRON exchange rate. Periods of stronger retail sales often coincide with RON appreciation against the euro, reflecting improved economic fundamentals and investor confidence. Conversely, retail sales contractions tend to align with RON depreciation, signaling risk aversion and weaker domestic demand. This relationship underscores the importance of retail sales as a gauge for currency market sentiment and capital flows.
FAQs
- What does Romania’s Retail Sales MoM data indicate?
- The Retail Sales MoM data measures monthly changes in consumer spending, reflecting household demand and economic health.
- How does the December 2025 reading compare historically?
- December’s 0.10% growth is modest, below the 0.70% estimate, and follows a volatile period with sharp contractions and rebounds in prior months.
- Why is Retail Sales MoM important for Romania’s economy?
- Retail sales drive a significant portion of GDP and influence monetary policy, fiscal decisions, and financial market sentiment.
Key takeaway: Romania’s December 2025 retail sales growth signals cautious consumer behavior amid inflation and fiscal restraint, suggesting subdued economic momentum in early 2026.
Updated 1/9/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
December 2025 retail sales growth of 0.10% MoM compares to November’s -1.10% decline and the 12-month average of 0.05%. This marks a slight recovery but remains below expectations and prior seasonal norms.
Volatility in monthly retail sales is evident, with sharp contractions in October (-4.00%) and rebounds in November (1.30%) underscoring uneven consumer demand. The December figure suggests a pause in this oscillation, with consumers adopting a wait-and-see stance amid macroeconomic uncertainties.