Retail Sales Mom - SE Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
Sweden Retail Sales MoM
-0.7
Actual
0.3
Consensus
1.1
Previous
Sweden’s Retail Sales MoM for November 2025 surprised with a strong 1.10% increase, well above the 0.50% estimate and reversing October’s -0.30% contraction. This sharp rebound signals expansion in consumer spending after a weak prior month, reflecting renewed confidence amid easing inflation and stable labor markets. Looking ahead, the Riksbank’s tightening stance may moderate growth, but resilient demand supports a cautiously optimistic economic outlook. Updated 12/19/25
Retail Sales Mom - SE
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Listen to: Sweden Retail Sales MoM
Sweden's Retail Sales MoM Surge 1.10% in November 2025 Signals Strong Consumer Rebound
Key Takeaways: Sweden’s retail sales for November 2025 rose sharply by 1.10% month-over-month, well above the 0.50% consensus and reversing October’s 0.30% decline. This marks the strongest monthly gain since June’s rebound from a steep contraction. The data suggests renewed consumer confidence amid easing inflation pressures and stable labor markets. However, external risks and tighter monetary policy could temper momentum ahead.
Sweden’s retail sales for November 2025 surged 1.10% month-over-month (MoM), according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure notably outpaced the 0.50% consensus estimate and reversed October’s -0.30% decline. The November reading also stands well above the 12-month average MoM growth of approximately 0.30%, signaling a robust rebound in consumer spending.
Drivers this month
Stronger demand in durable goods and apparel sectors contributed 0.70 percentage points (pp).
The retail sales increase comes amid a tightening monetary policy stance by the Riksbank, which has raised the policy rate to 3.75% to combat inflation. Despite higher borrowing costs, consumer spending remains resilient, suggesting that inflationary pressures may be easing without severely denting demand.
Market lens
Following the release, the SEK strengthened modestly against the EUR and USD, reflecting improved sentiment on Sweden’s economic resilience. Short-term government bond yields edged higher, pricing in a sustained hawkish stance from the central bank.
Retail sales are a critical barometer of household consumption, which accounts for roughly 45% of Sweden’s GDP. The 1.10% MoM increase in November 2025 contrasts sharply with the -0.30% contraction in October and the -4.80% plunge in June, which was driven by supply chain disruptions and inflation spikes.
Historical context
November 2025: 1.10% MoM
October 2025: -0.30% MoM
September 2025: 0.90% MoM
August 2025: 0.30% MoM
12-month average (Dec 2024–Nov 2025): 0.30% MoM
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The Riksbank’s recent rate hikes aim to anchor inflation expectations near its 2% target. Despite the tighter financial conditions, retail sales growth suggests that wage gains and employment stability are supporting consumer spending power. Inflation has moderated from a peak of 7.20% year-over-year in mid-2025 to around 3.80% in November.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Sweden’s government continues to maintain a prudent fiscal stance, with a modest budget surplus projected for 2025. Targeted social transfers and tax relief measures have helped sustain household incomes, cushioning the impact of higher prices and interest rates.
November’s 1.10% MoM retail sales growth represents a sharp acceleration from October’s -0.30% and well above the 12-month average of 0.30%. This rebound follows a volatile summer marked by a steep 4.80% drop in June, highlighting a recovery phase in consumer demand.
Comparing recent months, September and May also showed solid gains of 0.90% and 0.90%, respectively, indicating intermittent strength before the June disruption. The November figure signals a return to a more normalized growth trajectory.
What This Chart Tells Us
The retail sales trend is trending upward after a mid-year slump, suggesting consumers are regaining confidence. This momentum could support GDP growth in Q4 2025, provided inflation and interest rates stabilize.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The SEK/USD pair appreciated by 0.30% within the first hour post-release, while 2-year Swedish government bond yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting expectations of sustained monetary tightening amid resilient consumption.
Looking ahead, Sweden’s retail sales trajectory faces several key influences. The central bank’s continued rate hikes could gradually dampen demand, especially in interest-sensitive sectors like autos and housing-related retail. However, easing inflation and stable labor markets provide a supportive backdrop.
Scenario analysis
Bullish (30% probability): Inflation falls below 3%, real incomes rise, and retail sales sustain 0.80–1.20% monthly growth, boosting GDP above 2.50% in 2026.
Base (50% probability): Inflation stabilizes near 3.50%, monetary policy tightens moderately, and retail sales grow 0.30–0.70% monthly, supporting steady but slower economic expansion.
Heightened tensions in Eastern Europe and global supply chain uncertainties remain downside risks. Any escalation could increase energy prices and disrupt trade, negatively impacting consumer confidence and spending.
Sweden’s November 2025 retail sales data from the Sigmanomics database reveals a strong rebound in consumer spending, defying concerns over tighter monetary policy. This resilience bodes well for near-term economic growth, though vigilance is warranted given external risks and inflation dynamics. Policymakers and investors should monitor upcoming inflation prints and labor market data closely to gauge sustainability.
Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales MoM
Sweden’s retail sales data is a bellwether for domestic economic health and influences multiple asset classes. The following markets historically track or react to retail sales trends, reflecting shifts in consumer demand, currency strength, and risk sentiment.
SEKEUR – The Swedish krona’s exchange rate against the euro often moves in tandem with retail sales strength, reflecting economic confidence.
SEKUSD – USD/SEK volatility spikes around retail data releases, indicating currency sensitivity to consumer spending.
OMXS30 – Sweden’s benchmark stock index reacts to retail sales as a proxy for corporate earnings outlook in consumer sectors.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price sometimes inversely correlates with retail sales, as risk-on sentiment boosts equities over crypto.
ERIC – Ericsson’s stock price is sensitive to domestic economic trends, including retail consumption patterns.
Since 2020, the OMXS30 index has shown a positive correlation with retail sales growth, with spikes in retail activity often preceding index rallies. This relationship underscores the importance of consumer spending as a growth driver for Swedish equities.
FAQ
What does Sweden’s Retail Sales MoM indicate?
It measures the monthly change in consumer spending at retail outlets, reflecting household demand and economic health.
How does retail sales affect Sweden’s monetary policy?
Strong retail sales can signal inflationary pressures, influencing the Riksbank’s decisions on interest rates.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Sweden Retail Sales MoM Rise 1.10 Percent in November November Retail Sales MoM Show Strong Consumer Spending Retail Sales MoM measures the monthly change in the total value of goods sold by retailers, reflecting shifts in consumer demand and economic health. For Sweden, November’s report showed a 1.10 percent increase, well above the 0.50 percent forecast and reversing October’s 0.30 percent decline. Key facts include: year-over-year retail sales growth near 3.80 percent, a monthly gain of 1.10 percent, and the data released on December 19, 2025. This sharp rebound highlights renewed consumer confidence amid easing inflation and steady employment. According to economist Anna Lindström of Nordea Markets, “The stronger-than-expected retail sales in Sweden suggest households are regaining spending power despite tighter monetary policy.” The Riksbank’s recent rate hikes have yet to dampen demand, signaling resilience in the domestic economy. However, external risks and cautious sentiment may moderate growth in the coming months.
November’s 1.10% MoM retail sales growth represents a sharp acceleration from October’s -0.30% and well above the 12-month average of 0.30%. This rebound follows a volatile summer marked by a steep 4.80% drop in June, highlighting a recovery phase in consumer demand.
Comparing recent months, September and May also showed solid gains of 0.90% and 0.90%, respectively, indicating intermittent strength before the June disruption. The November figure signals a return to a more normalized growth trajectory.