Singapore Retail Sales MoM for December 2025 Holds Steady at 0.00%
Key Takeaways: Singapore's retail sales for December 2025 registered a flat 0.00% growth month-over-month (MoM), following a strong 2.30% rise in November. This pause signals a potential cooling in consumer spending momentum amid tightening monetary conditions and external uncertainties. The 12-month average growth rate remains modest at 0.70%, reflecting subdued but stable retail activity over the past year.
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Singapore's retail sales for December 2025, released on January 5, 2026, showed no growth compared to November 2025's 2.30% increase, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This flat reading contrasts with the prior months' volatility: a 4.10% surge in September, a slowdown to 0.50% in October, and a contraction of -1.40% in November. The 12-month average growth rate stands at approximately 0.70%, indicating a generally tepid retail environment over the past year.
Drivers this month
- Holiday season spending plateaued, with consumers cautious amid inflationary pressures.
- Electronics and luxury goods sales softened after strong year-end promotions.
- Food and beverage retail maintained steady demand, offsetting weakness in discretionary categories.
Policy pulse
The flat retail sales growth aligns with the Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS) tightening stance, which has gradually increased policy rates since mid-2025 to temper inflation. Consumer credit growth has slowed, reflecting tighter financial conditions.
Market lens
Following the release, the SGD/USD currency pair showed mild appreciation, reflecting investor confidence in MAS's policy framework. Short-term bond yields edged higher, pricing in sustained monetary tightening.
Retail sales are a key barometer of domestic consumption, which accounts for roughly 40% of Singapore's GDP. The December 2025 flat reading contrasts with the previous month's 2.30% growth and the -1.40% contraction in November, underscoring volatility in consumer demand amid shifting macroeconomic conditions.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The MAS has raised the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band twice since July 2025, cumulatively tightening financial conditions. This has increased borrowing costs and dampened discretionary spending, particularly in high-ticket retail segments.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Singapore’s fiscal stance remains prudent, with the 2025 budget focusing on targeted support for households and businesses facing cost pressures. However, no new broad-based stimulus measures have been introduced recently, limiting fiscal offset to monetary tightening.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region continue to inject uncertainty. These factors have restrained retail inventory replenishment and consumer confidence, particularly in electronics and luxury goods sectors.
This chart reveals a volatile retail sales trajectory, with December's flat reading marking a halt to the rebound seen in November. The data indicates that Singapore’s retail sector is currently navigating a delicate balance between recovering consumer demand and tightening financial conditions.
Drivers this month
- Seasonal post-holiday spending normalization.
- Reduced promotional activity compared to prior months.
- Stable demand in essential goods offsetting discretionary spending declines.
Policy pulse
Retail sales remain below pre-pandemic growth rates, consistent with MAS's cautious monetary tightening aimed at anchoring inflation expectations.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: SGD/USD appreciated 0.15% within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting market anticipation of continued policy firmness.
Looking ahead, Singapore’s retail sales trajectory will hinge on several factors. The MAS’s monetary policy path, global economic conditions, and domestic consumer sentiment will be critical in shaping demand.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
Stronger-than-expected global growth and easing geopolitical tensions could boost consumer confidence. Retail sales may rebound with monthly gains of 1.50%-2.00%, supported by renewed tourism and festive spending.
Base scenario (60% probability)
Retail sales remain flat to mildly positive (0.00%-0.50% MoM), reflecting cautious consumer behavior amid steady inflation and moderate wage growth. Monetary policy remains restrictive but not overtly contractionary.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
Rising inflationary pressures and tighter credit conditions could suppress retail sales, leading to a contraction of -0.50% to -1.00% MoM. External shocks, such as renewed supply chain disruptions, would exacerbate downside risks.
Singapore’s December 2025 retail sales data underscores a cautious consumer environment amid tightening monetary policy and external uncertainties. While the flat MoM growth halts the rebound from November, the overall trend remains subdued but stable. Policymakers and market participants should monitor upcoming inflation data and global developments closely, as these will influence the trajectory of domestic consumption and economic growth in early 2026.
Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales MoM
Retail sales data in Singapore often influences currency, bond, and equity markets sensitive to domestic consumption trends. The following symbols historically track or react to Singapore’s retail sales movements:
- SGDUSD – The Singapore dollar’s exchange rate against the US dollar often moves in response to retail sales, reflecting shifts in economic outlook and monetary policy expectations.
- STI – Singapore’s Straits Times Index is sensitive to domestic consumption trends, with retail sector stocks reacting to sales data.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price sometimes reflects risk sentiment shifts triggered by economic data surprises, including retail sales.
- USDSGD – The inverse of SGDUSD, this pair also reacts to retail sales data, influencing carry trade flows.
- DBS – As a major Singaporean bank, DBS’s stock price is sensitive to consumer credit trends linked to retail sales performance.
Insight: Retail Sales vs. SGDUSD Since 2020
Since 2020, Singapore’s retail sales MoM growth has shown a moderate positive correlation (~0.45) with the SGDUSD exchange rate. Periods of strong retail sales growth often coincide with SGD appreciation, reflecting improved economic sentiment and expectations of tighter monetary policy. Conversely, retail sales contractions tend to weaken the SGD as risk appetite diminishes. This relationship underscores the importance of retail sales data as a near-term driver of currency market moves.
FAQ
- What does Singapore’s Retail Sales MoM indicate?
- Retail Sales MoM measures the monthly change in consumer spending at retail outlets, signaling domestic demand strength.
- How does retail sales data affect Singapore’s economy?
- Retail sales impact GDP growth, business revenues, and employment, influencing monetary policy decisions.
- Why is the December 2025 retail sales reading important?
- It reflects consumer behavior during the holiday season and sets the tone for early 2026 economic activity.
Takeaway: Singapore’s flat retail sales in December 2025 highlight a cautious consumer stance amid tighter monetary policy and global uncertainties, suggesting a watchful approach for 2026 economic prospects.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
December 2025 retail sales in Singapore held steady at 0.00% MoM, following November's 2.30% increase and October's 0.50% rise. This flat performance contrasts with the 12-month average monthly growth of 0.70%, signaling a pause in the recent rebound after a sharp contraction in November (-1.40%).
Comparing the last four months, retail sales showed a volatile pattern: September's 4.10% surge was followed by a sharp slowdown in October and November, before stabilizing in December. This suggests that consumer spending is sensitive to both seasonal factors and evolving macroeconomic conditions.