SI Consumer Confidence for November 2025 Dips Slightly to -24, Signaling Lingering Caution
Key Takeaways: November 2025's Consumer Confidence in SI edged down to -24 from October's -23, missing estimates of -22. This marks a modest deterioration but remains within the recent range observed since mid-2025. The 12-month average stands at -26, indicating a gradual improvement over the past year despite persistent headwinds. Monetary tightening, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal recalibrations continue to weigh on sentiment. Forward-looking risks include inflation volatility and external shocks, while structural trends suggest cautious optimism amid evolving economic fundamentals.
Table of Contents
SI's Consumer Confidence for November 2025 registered at -24, a slight decline from October's -23, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure fell short of the consensus estimate of -22, signaling a modest pullback in household sentiment. The reading remains above the 12-month average of -26, reflecting a slow but steady recovery from the deeper pessimism seen earlier in 2025.
Drivers this month
- Rising borrowing costs amid ongoing monetary tightening dampened consumer optimism.
- Heightened geopolitical risks in the region contributed to uncertainty.
- Fiscal policy adjustments, including reduced stimulus measures, tempered spending expectations.
Policy pulse
The central bank's recent interest rate hikes, aimed at curbing inflation, have tightened financial conditions, reflected in cautious consumer outlooks. Inflation remains above target, pressuring real incomes and consumption.
Market lens
In the immediate aftermath of the release, the EURUSD currency pair saw a mild depreciation of 0.15%, while short-term government bond yields edged higher, signaling market sensitivity to subdued confidence data.
Consumer Confidence is a vital barometer of household sentiment and a leading indicator for consumption-driven growth in SI. November's figure of -24 compares with a series of monthly readings: -23 in October, -25 in September, and -27 in August, illustrating a volatile but generally improving trend since early 2025.
Core Macroeconomic Indicators
GDP growth in Q3 2025 slowed to 1.20% annualized, down from 1.80% in Q2, reflecting weaker domestic demand. Inflation remains sticky at 4.10% year-over-year, above the central bank's 2% target. Unemployment held steady at 6.30%, indicating labor market resilience despite headwinds.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The central bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points in November, marking the sixth hike this cycle. Credit spreads widened slightly, and mortgage rates climbed to 5.20%, constraining consumer borrowing capacity.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal tightening continues with a 0.30% GDP reduction in government spending planned for 2026, aiming to reduce the budget deficit from 3.50% to 2.80%. Tax adjustments have also been modestly contractionary, limiting disposable income growth.
Drivers this month
- Monetary tightening contributed -0.50 points to the confidence index.
- Geopolitical tensions subtracted approximately -0.30 points.
- Fiscal consolidation effects reduced sentiment by -0.20 points.
- Positive labor market data added 0.40 points, partially offsetting negatives.
This chart highlights a consumer confidence trend that is stabilizing but remains subdued. The lack of a decisive upward move suggests that consumers remain cautious, balancing inflation pressures and tighter credit against improving employment conditions.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The SLB stock dipped 0.80% in the first hour post-release, reflecting concerns over consumer spending. The BTCUSD pair showed mild volatility but no clear directional bias.
Looking ahead, SI's consumer confidence trajectory will hinge on several key factors. The central bank's policy stance remains restrictive, with further rate hikes possible if inflation persists. Fiscal policy is unlikely to provide significant stimulus, maintaining pressure on disposable incomes.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
Inflation moderates faster than expected, enabling the central bank to pause rate hikes. Fiscal measures shift toward targeted support, boosting consumer spending and confidence rising above -15 by mid-2026.
Base scenario (60% probability)
Consumer confidence remains range-bound between -20 and -25 as inflation eases slowly. Monetary policy tightens moderately, and fiscal policy remains neutral. Growth continues at a subdued pace around 1.00-1.50% annually.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
Geopolitical shocks or a sharper inflation resurgence trigger renewed monetary tightening and fiscal austerity. Consumer confidence falls below -30, risking contraction in consumption and GDP growth below 1%.
November 2025's Consumer Confidence reading of -24 underscores the cautious mood among SI households. While not deteriorating sharply, the data signals persistent challenges from monetary tightening, fiscal restraint, and external uncertainties. The balance of risks remains tilted toward subdued growth, but a clear recovery in confidence is possible if inflation pressures ease and policy support stabilizes.
Ongoing monitoring of core macro indicators and geopolitical developments will be critical to assess the evolving consumer landscape. Investors and policymakers should prepare for a range of outcomes, with consumer sentiment serving as an early warning system for broader economic shifts.
Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence
Consumer Confidence in SI is a bellwether for domestic demand and risk appetite. Key markets that historically track this indicator include the SLB stock, sensitive to consumer spending trends; the EURUSD currency pair, reflecting cross-border capital flows and monetary policy expectations; the BTCUSD crypto pair, which often reacts to risk sentiment shifts; the USDSI6 currency pair, directly linked to SI's economic outlook; and the INDSI index, representing domestic equities sensitive to consumer trends.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What does the November 2025 Consumer Confidence figure indicate about SI's economy?
- The -24 reading suggests cautious consumer sentiment, reflecting ongoing inflation and monetary tightening pressures that may slow growth.
- How does this Consumer Confidence data impact monetary policy expectations?
- Subdued confidence supports the central bank's cautious approach to further rate hikes, though persistent inflation could maintain tightening bias.
- Why is Consumer Confidence important for investors?
- It signals future consumer spending trends, influencing corporate earnings, equity markets, and currency valuations in SI.
Final takeaway: SI's November 2025 Consumer Confidence reveals a fragile but stable consumer outlook, with risks skewed toward slower growth unless inflation and geopolitical tensions ease.
Updated 12/19/25
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
November 2025's Consumer Confidence at -24 represents a slight decline from October's -23 and remains above the 12-month average of -26. This suggests a tentative stabilization after a period of sharper declines earlier in the year.
The chart reveals a pattern of oscillation between -23 and -27 since May 2025, with no clear breakout to either optimism or deeper pessimism. This range-bound behavior reflects ongoing uncertainty amid mixed economic signals.