South Korea's Consumer Confidence for November 2025 improved to -22.40, up from October's -24.60, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database on December 30, 2025. This reading surpassed market expectations of -24.00, signaling a modest rebound in consumer sentiment after two consecutive months of decline. Despite the improvement, confidence remains below the 12-month average of -23.30, reflecting persistent caution among households amid ongoing economic uncertainties.

Drivers this month

• Improved labor market conditions contributed positively, with unemployment rates stabilizing near 3.10% in November.
• Moderation in inflation pressures, with CPI rising 2.30% YoY, easing cost-of-living concerns.
• Consumer expectations for income growth edged higher, supporting spending intentions.
• Lingering geopolitical tensions in the region continue to weigh on sentiment.

Policy pulse

The Bank of Korea maintained its policy rate at 3.50% in December, signaling a cautious stance amid mixed economic signals. The current consumer confidence reading aligns with the central bank’s inflation target zone of 2%, suggesting a balanced monetary policy environment for now.

Market lens

In the immediate aftermath of the release, the USDKRW currency pair showed a mild depreciation of 0.15%, reflecting cautious optimism. The KOSPI index gained 0.40%, indicating positive investor sentiment linked to improved consumer outlook.

Consumer confidence is a key barometer of household sentiment and spending propensity, which drives roughly 60% of South Korea’s GDP. November’s figure of -22.40 marks a 9% improvement from October’s -24.60 but remains below the year’s peak of -21.10 recorded in March 2025. The 12-month average stands at -23.30, underscoring a generally subdued confidence environment throughout the year.

Macroeconomic context

• GDP growth slowed to an annualized 1.80% in Q3 2025, down from 2.30% in Q2.
• Inflation moderated to 2.30% YoY in November, easing from a summer peak of 3.10% in July.
• Unemployment held steady at 3.10%, near a five-year low.
• Retail sales grew 1.20% MoM in November, signaling steady consumer spending.

Fiscal policy & government budget

The government’s fiscal stance remains expansionary, with a 2025 budget deficit projected at 3.20% of GDP. Recent stimulus measures targeting household income support and small business relief have helped stabilize consumer sentiment. However, rising public debt at 48% of GDP poses medium-term risks to fiscal sustainability.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

Heightened geopolitical tensions on the Korean Peninsula and global supply chain disruptions continue to cloud the economic outlook. Trade uncertainties with China and the US also contribute to cautious consumer attitudes.

What This Chart Tells Us

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The BTCUSD pair saw a 0.30% uptick, reflecting a mild risk-on sentiment among investors. Meanwhile, the SAMSUNG stock edged higher by 0.50%, benefiting from improved domestic demand expectations.

Looking ahead, consumer confidence in South Korea faces a mixed outlook shaped by domestic and external factors. The following scenarios outline potential trajectories:

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Continued easing of inflation below 2% supports real income growth.
• Geopolitical tensions ease, boosting trade and investment.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative, encouraging credit growth.
• Consumer confidence rises above -20 by Q1 2026, fueling stronger consumption.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Inflation stabilizes around 2.30%, limiting real income gains.
• Geopolitical risks persist but do not escalate significantly.
• Monetary policy holds steady, balancing growth and inflation risks.
• Consumer confidence hovers near current levels (-22 to -23) through early 2026.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Inflation spikes above 3%, eroding purchasing power.
• Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting trade and supply chains.
• Monetary tightening accelerates, raising borrowing costs.
• Consumer confidence falls below -25, dampening consumption and growth.

Policy implications

Policymakers should monitor inflation trends closely and remain ready to adjust monetary policy if inflation deviates from target. Fiscal support may be needed to sustain household incomes if external shocks intensify.

South Korea’s November 2025 consumer confidence reading signals a tentative recovery in household sentiment after recent softness. While the improvement is encouraging, confidence remains subdued relative to historical norms. The interplay of moderating inflation, steady labor markets, and geopolitical uncertainties will shape the near-term trajectory of consumer attitudes. Investors and policymakers alike should weigh these dynamics carefully, balancing optimism with caution as the economy navigates a complex global environment.

Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence is a critical driver of economic activity and market sentiment in South Korea. The following markets historically track changes in this indicator closely, reflecting shifts in domestic demand, risk appetite, and currency flows.

• KOSPI: South Korea’s benchmark equity index is sensitive to consumer spending trends, as retail and technology sectors dominate the market.
• USDKRW: The Korean won’s exchange rate versus the US dollar often reacts to shifts in confidence, influencing trade and capital flows.
• SAMSUNG: As a bellwether for domestic and global demand, Samsung Electronics stock price correlates with consumer sentiment.
• BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s price movements sometimes reflect broader risk sentiment, which can be influenced by consumer confidence trends.
• EURKRW: The euro to Korean won exchange rate captures trade and investment flows between South Korea and Europe, sensitive to confidence shifts.

Insight Box: Consumer Confidence vs. KOSPI Index (2020–2025)

Since 2020, South Korea’s consumer confidence index and the KOSPI have shown a positive correlation of approximately 0.65. Periods of rising confidence, such as early 2021 and mid-2023, coincided with KOSPI rallies, while dips in confidence aligned with market corrections. This relationship underscores the importance of consumer sentiment as a leading indicator for equity market performance in South Korea.

FAQs

What is the current state of South Korea's consumer confidence?

South Korea’s consumer confidence for November 2025 improved to -22.40 from -24.60 in October, indicating a modest rebound but still below the 12-month average.

How does consumer confidence impact South Korea’s economy?

Consumer confidence influences household spending, which accounts for about 60% of GDP, thus affecting overall economic growth and business investment.

What are the risks to South Korea’s consumer confidence outlook?

Risks include inflation volatility, geopolitical tensions, and potential monetary tightening, which could dampen household sentiment and spending.

Takeaway: November’s consumer confidence reading signals cautious optimism but underscores the need for vigilant policy support amid ongoing uncertainties.

Updated 12/30/25

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.