Thailand’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for December 2025, released on January 14, 2026, fell to 51.90 from November’s 53.20, missing the consensus estimate of 53.40 according to the Sigmanomics database. This decline signals a cautious consumer mood as inflationary pressures persist and external risks weigh on sentiment. The index remains above the 50-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism, but the downward trend since mid-2025 suggests growing uncertainty.

Drivers This Month

• Inflationary pressures, particularly food and energy costs, eroded purchasing power.
• Monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Thailand raised borrowing costs.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region increased risk aversion.
• Government fiscal consolidation tempered expectations for stimulus support.

Policy Pulse

The Bank of Thailand’s recent rate hikes aim to anchor inflation expectations but risk dampening consumer spending. The current CCI reading suggests consumers are sensitive to tighter financial conditions, which may slow economic growth in the near term.

Market Lens

Following the release, the THB/USD currency pair showed mild appreciation, reflecting a flight to safety amid risk-off sentiment. Short-term government bond yields edged higher, pricing in slower growth but persistent inflation risks.

Consumer confidence is a leading indicator of household spending, which accounts for roughly 50% of Thailand’s GDP. The December 2025 reading of 51.90 compares to 50.70 in October and 50.10 in September, indicating a modest recovery in late 2025 before the recent pullback. The 12-month average CCI is 52.60, reflecting a generally cautious but stable consumer outlook over the past year.

Core Macroeconomic Indicators

• Inflation remains elevated at 3.80% year-over-year in December, above the Bank of Thailand’s 1-3% target range.
• GDP growth slowed to an annualized 2.50% in Q4 2025, down from 3.10% in Q3.
• Unemployment held steady at 1.20%, but underemployment and wage growth remain concerns.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Bank of Thailand raised its policy rate by 25 basis points in December 2025, marking the fourth hike since mid-2025. This tightening aims to curb inflation but has increased borrowing costs for households and businesses. Credit growth slowed to 4.10% year-over-year in December, down from 5.30% in October.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Thailand’s fiscal stance remains moderately contractionary, with the government targeting a budget deficit of 3.50% of GDP in 2026, down from 4.00% in 2025. Reduced stimulus and higher taxes on luxury goods have contributed to subdued consumer sentiment.

What This Chart Tells Us

Market Lens

Immediate reaction: The THB/USD currency pair appreciated 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting risk-off positioning. Thai government bond yields rose by 5 basis points, signaling investor concerns about growth moderation.

Looking ahead, Thailand’s consumer confidence trajectory will hinge on several key factors. Inflationary pressures may ease if global commodity prices stabilize, but persistent wage stagnation and higher interest rates could restrain spending. Geopolitical risks, including tensions in the South China Sea and global trade uncertainties, add to downside risks.

Bullish Scenario (25% Probability)

• Inflation moderates to below 3% by mid-2026, easing cost pressures.
• Monetary policy pauses or reverses tightening, boosting credit growth.
• Government introduces targeted fiscal stimulus to support consumption.
• Consumer confidence rebounds above 55, driving stronger retail sales and GDP growth above 3.50%.

Base Scenario (50% Probability)

• Inflation remains near 3.50%, with gradual monetary tightening continuing.
• Fiscal policy remains neutral, with limited stimulus measures.
• Consumer confidence stabilizes around 52, supporting moderate consumption growth.
• GDP growth remains steady at 2.50-3.00% in 2026.

Bearish Scenario (25% Probability)

• Inflation spikes above 4%, forcing aggressive rate hikes.
• Geopolitical shocks disrupt trade and investment flows.
• Consumer confidence falls below 50, triggering a contraction in household spending.
• GDP growth slows below 2%, increasing unemployment and financial stress.

Thailand’s December 2025 Consumer Confidence reading of 51.90 highlights a cautious consumer base navigating a complex macroeconomic environment. While the index remains above the pessimism threshold, the downward trend since mid-2025 underscores vulnerabilities from inflation, monetary tightening, and geopolitical risks. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act between controlling inflation and supporting growth. Financial markets are likely to remain sensitive to consumer sentiment shifts, with implications for currency, bond yields, and equity valuations.

Continued monitoring of inflation dynamics, fiscal policy adjustments, and external developments will be critical to assessing Thailand’s economic trajectory in 2026.

Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence

Thailand’s Consumer Confidence Index is a bellwether for domestic demand and economic health. Several tradable assets closely track shifts in consumer sentiment, reflecting their sensitivity to growth and inflation dynamics.

• THBUSDT – The Thai Baht to US Dollar pair often reacts to confidence shifts, with appreciation during rising sentiment.
• SET – Thailand’s Stock Exchange Index correlates with consumer spending trends and economic outlook.
• USDTTHB – The inverse of THBUSDT, useful for hedging currency exposure tied to consumer confidence.
• BTCUSDT – Bitcoin’s price often reflects global risk sentiment, indirectly influenced by emerging market confidence.
• PTT – Thailand’s energy giant, sensitive to domestic demand and inflation trends impacting consumer spending.

FAQs

What does Thailand’s Consumer Confidence Index indicate?

The index measures household optimism about the economy, influencing spending and growth prospects.

How does consumer confidence affect monetary policy in Thailand?

Lower confidence may prompt the Bank of Thailand to ease rates, while higher confidence can justify tightening to control inflation.

Why is consumer confidence important for investors?

It signals future consumption trends, impacting corporate earnings, currency strength, and bond yields.

Takeaway: Thailand’s December 2025 consumer confidence dip to 51.90 signals cautious households amid inflation and tightening policies. Monitoring this indicator is vital for anticipating economic and market shifts in 2026.

Updated 1/14/26