Turkey’s retail sales for November 2025 increased by 0.20% month-over-month (MoM), according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure contrasts sharply with October’s robust 2.20% gain and also missed expectations of a 0.30% decline. The November print marks a significant deceleration from the strong summer months, including June’s 2.80% and March’s 2.00% rises, and is only marginally positive compared to September’s slight contraction of -0.20%.

Drivers this month

• Moderate consumer spending amid rising borrowing costs
• Weaker demand for durable goods balanced by steady food and beverage sales
• Inflationary pressures limiting discretionary purchases

Policy pulse

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has maintained a tight monetary stance, with policy rates elevated to combat inflation exceeding 40% annually. This has increased borrowing costs, dampening consumer credit growth and retail spending. Fiscal policy adjustments, including reduced subsidies and targeted social transfers, have also restrained disposable income growth.

Market lens

Following the release, the Turkish lira (TRY) showed mild depreciation against the USD, reflecting investor caution. Short-term yields on Turkish government bonds edged higher, signaling concerns about slower economic momentum. Retail sector equities such as AKBNK saw muted trading volumes.

Retail sales are a critical barometer of consumer health and economic vitality in Turkey. The 0.20% MoM increase in November 2025 is well below the 12-month average growth rate of approximately 1.30%, underscoring a marked slowdown. Year-over-year (YoY), retail sales have expanded by roughly 8%, reflecting persistent inflation-driven nominal gains rather than real volume growth.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The CBRT’s benchmark interest rate currently stands at 28%, a level maintained since mid-2025 to rein in inflation. Elevated rates have curtailed credit expansion, particularly consumer loans, which historically fuel retail spending. The tighter financial conditions have also increased the cost of imported goods, feeding into retail price inflation and squeezing real purchasing power.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Turkey’s government has shifted toward fiscal consolidation in late 2025, reducing budget deficits through spending cuts and tax adjustments. Social welfare programs have been recalibrated, limiting disposable income growth for lower-income households who typically drive retail consumption. This fiscal tightening complements monetary restraint but weighs on short-term retail demand.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean and regional instability have heightened economic uncertainty. Currency volatility and import cost pressures have complicated supply chains, affecting retail inventory and pricing strategies. Additionally, global commodity price fluctuations have contributed to inflation persistence, indirectly impacting consumer confidence.

Drivers this month

• Reduced discretionary spending on non-essential goods
• Stable demand for essentials cushioning overall retail sales
• Inventory adjustments by retailers amid uncertain demand

Policy pulse

Retail sales remain below the CBRT’s inflation target-adjusted growth threshold, reinforcing the need for continued monetary vigilance. The central bank’s forward guidance suggests no imminent easing until inflation shows sustained decline.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The USD/TRY pair rose 0.30% in the first hour post-release, reflecting cautious sentiment. Turkish equities in the retail sector showed mixed performance, with SAHOL edging lower amid profit-taking.

Looking ahead, Turkey’s retail sales trajectory will hinge on several factors. The base case scenario foresees modest growth of 0.50% MoM in December 2025, supported by seasonal holiday spending and stable inflation. However, downside risks include further monetary tightening or renewed geopolitical shocks that could depress consumer confidence and spending.

Bullish scenario (20% probability)

• Inflation eases faster than expected, boosting real incomes
• Monetary policy loosens in early 2026, lowering borrowing costs
• Improved geopolitical stability enhances market sentiment
• Retail sales rebound to 1.50% MoM growth by Q1 2026

Base scenario (60% probability)

• Inflation remains elevated but stable
• Monetary policy stays restrictive
• Retail sales grow modestly around 0.30–0.50% MoM
• Consumer caution persists, limiting discretionary spending

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Inflation spikes due to external shocks
• Further tightening of monetary and fiscal policies
• Retail sales contract by 0.50% or more MoM
• Consumer confidence deteriorates sharply

Turkey’s November 2025 retail sales growth of 0.20% signals a cooling consumer sector amid persistent inflation and tighter financial conditions. While the figure beats contraction forecasts, it falls far short of the prior month’s strong gains and the annual average. This moderation reflects a complex interplay of monetary restraint, fiscal consolidation, and external uncertainties.

Policymakers face a delicate balancing act: sustaining inflation control without stifling consumer demand and economic growth. Retail sales data will remain a key barometer for assessing the health of Turkey’s domestic economy as 2026 unfolds.

Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales MoM

Retail sales data in Turkey often drives short-term movements in currency, equity, and bond markets. The following five symbols historically correlate with Turkey’s retail sales trends and are likely to react to the November 2025 print:

• AKBNK – A major Turkish bank sensitive to consumer credit trends and retail loan demand.
• SAHOL – A diversified holding with significant retail exposure, reflecting consumer spending shifts.
• USDTRY – The Turkish lira’s exchange rate against the US dollar, highly responsive to economic data.
• EURTRY – Euro to Turkish lira pair, sensitive to regional economic and geopolitical developments.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s USD price, often viewed as a risk sentiment barometer impacting emerging market currencies like TRY.

FAQs

What does Turkey’s Retail Sales MoM data indicate?

The data measures monthly changes in consumer spending, signaling economic health and consumer confidence.

How does the November 2025 reading compare historically?

November’s 0.20% growth is a slowdown from October’s 2.20% and below the 12-month average of 1.30%, indicating cooling momentum.

Why is retail sales data important for investors?

Retail sales influence currency strength, stock prices, and bond yields by reflecting consumer demand and economic trends.

Final takeaway: Turkey’s November retail sales growth signals a cautious consumer environment amid inflation and policy tightening, setting a tempered tone for early 2026 economic prospects.

Updated 12/11/25