Turkey's Retail Sales MoM Surge 1.50% in December 2025 Signals Strong Consumer Resilience
Key Takeaways: Turkey’s retail sales rose 1.50% MoM in December 2025, well above the 0.30% estimate and prior 0.20%. This marks a rebound from subdued November and December 2024 levels. The data suggests robust consumer demand amid easing inflation and stable financial conditions, though geopolitical risks and fiscal constraints temper optimism.
Table of Contents
Turkey’s retail sales for December 2025 rose by 1.50% month-over-month (MoM), according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure significantly outpaced market expectations of 0.30% and reversed the modest 0.20% gain recorded in November 2025. The December reading also contrasts sharply with the subdued 0.20% growth seen in December 2024, highlighting a notable acceleration in consumer spending during the year-end period.
Drivers this month
- Increased spending on durable goods and apparel amid holiday season promotions.
- Improved consumer confidence supported by easing inflation pressures.
- Government stimulus measures and tax incentives boosting disposable income.
Policy pulse
The 1.50% retail sales growth exceeds the central bank’s inflation target zone, suggesting that consumer demand remains resilient despite tighter monetary policy earlier in the year. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has maintained a cautious stance, balancing inflation control with growth support.
Market lens
Following the release, the Turkish lira (TRY) strengthened modestly against the US dollar, reflecting improved sentiment. Short-term yields on Turkish government bonds edged lower, signaling reduced risk premia. Equity markets showed a mild positive reaction, particularly in consumer discretionary sectors.
Retail sales are a critical gauge of domestic demand and consumer health. Turkey’s 1.50% MoM increase in December 2025 compares favorably with prior months: November’s 0.20%, October’s 0.90%, and September’s -0.20%. The 12-month average growth rate stands at approximately 1.20%, indicating that December’s figure is above trend.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The CBRT’s policy rate has hovered around 15% since mid-2025, aiming to tame inflation that peaked above 40% in early 2025. Recent data show headline inflation easing to 25% by December, improving real income prospects. Financial conditions have stabilized, with credit growth modestly positive, supporting retail activity.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal stimulus through targeted subsidies and tax relief has supported household spending. However, Turkey’s budget deficit remains elevated at around 5% of GDP, limiting the scope for further expansive fiscal measures. The government’s focus on structural reforms aims to enhance long-term fiscal sustainability.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Turkey faces ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region, including border conflicts and energy supply uncertainties. These factors pose downside risks to consumer confidence and import costs, which could affect retail sales momentum in coming months.
What This Chart Tells Us
Retail sales in Turkey are trending upward, reversing a two-month slowdown in autumn 2025. The strong December print signals renewed consumer confidence and spending power, which could support broader economic growth in early 2026.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Turkish lira (TRY) appreciated 0.40% versus the USD within the first hour post-release. The BIST 100 index gained 0.70%, led by consumer discretionary stocks. Two-year government bond yields fell by 10 basis points, reflecting improved risk appetite.
Looking ahead, Turkey’s retail sales trajectory depends on several factors. We outline three scenarios:
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
- Inflation continues to ease below 20%, boosting real incomes.
- Monetary policy remains accommodative with gradual rate cuts.
- Geopolitical tensions ease, stabilizing energy prices and supply chains.
- Retail sales grow 1.50–2.00% MoM in Q1 2026, supporting GDP growth above 4%.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Inflation moderates slowly, hovering around 20–25%.
- Monetary policy tightens slightly to anchor inflation expectations.
- Geopolitical risks persist but do not escalate significantly.
- Retail sales grow 0.80–1.20% MoM, maintaining steady consumer demand.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Inflation spikes due to external shocks or currency weakness.
- CBRT raises rates aggressively, tightening credit conditions.
- Geopolitical conflicts worsen, disrupting trade and consumer confidence.
- Retail sales contract or stagnate, dragging GDP growth below 2%.
Structural & long-run trends
Turkey’s retail sector is gradually shifting towards e-commerce and digital payments, which could enhance resilience against cyclical shocks. Demographic trends, including a young population, support long-term consumption growth. However, inflation volatility and fiscal constraints remain key challenges.
December 2025’s 1.50% MoM retail sales growth in Turkey marks a meaningful rebound in consumer spending. Supported by easing inflation, stable financial conditions, and targeted fiscal measures, this data point signals resilience in domestic demand. However, geopolitical risks and fiscal pressures warrant caution. Policymakers must balance inflation control with growth support to sustain momentum into 2026.
Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales MoM
Turkey’s retail sales data often influences currency, equity, and bond markets due to its direct link to domestic demand and inflation trends. The following tradable symbols historically track or react to retail sales movements, reflecting shifts in economic sentiment and policy expectations.
- USDTRY – The USD/TRY currency pair typically reacts to retail sales as a proxy for economic strength and inflation outlook.
- BIST100 – Turkey’s benchmark equity index is sensitive to consumer spending trends, especially in retail and discretionary sectors.
- AKBNK.IS – Akbank, a major Turkish bank, benefits from stronger retail credit demand linked to rising consumer spending.
- BTCUSDT – Bitcoin’s price can reflect broader risk sentiment shifts triggered by macroeconomic data surprises.
- EURTRY – The euro/Turkish lira pair also moves in response to Turkey’s economic data and monetary policy outlook.
Retail Sales vs. USDTRY Since 2020
Since 2020, Turkey’s retail sales growth has shown an inverse correlation with the USD/TRY exchange rate. Periods of strong retail sales growth often coincide with TRY appreciation, reflecting improved economic fundamentals and investor confidence. Conversely, retail sales slumps have aligned with TRY depreciation, driven by inflation spikes and policy uncertainty. This dynamic underscores the importance of retail sales as a barometer for Turkey’s macroeconomic health and currency stability.
FAQs
- What does Turkey’s Retail Sales MoM indicate?
- It measures the monthly change in consumer spending, signaling economic momentum and inflation pressures.
- How does retail sales data affect monetary policy in Turkey?
- Strong retail sales can prompt tighter monetary policy to control inflation, while weak sales may encourage easing.
- Why is the December 2025 retail sales figure significant?
- It shows a sharp rebound above expectations, indicating resilient consumer demand amid easing inflation.
Takeaway: Turkey’s December 2025 retail sales surge to 1.50% MoM highlights robust consumer demand, supporting a cautiously optimistic growth outlook despite persistent risks.
December 2025 retail sales growth of 1.50% MoM outpaces November’s 0.20% and the 12-month average of 1.20%. This rebound follows a dip in September (-0.20%) and a moderate October gain (0.90%). The trend suggests a recovery in consumer spending after a volatile autumn.
Seasonal factors and holiday-related demand contributed, but underlying strength is evident given the sustained above-average growth rate. The data aligns with easing inflation and stable credit conditions, which have bolstered purchasing power.