Initial Jobless Claims - US Economic Data | Sigmanomics
United States Initial Jobless Claims
Latest Release
212
Actual
210
Consensus
Previous
US Initial Jobless Claims for February 2026 rose to 212,000, slightly above January’s 209,000 but still below the 12-month average of 213,600. This 1.40% month-over-month increase signals continued labor market resilience amid ongoing volatility. Bond yields and equities held steady as markets digested the stable claims data ahead of upcoming employment reports. Updated 2/26/26
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Initial Jobless Claims - US
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Key Takeaways: US Initial Jobless Claims for February 2026 registered 212,000, up from January’s 209,000. The 12-month average stands at 213,600. Claims remain historically low, but volatility persists.
US Initial Jobless Claims: February 2026 Snapshot and Market Implications
Initial Jobless Claims in the United States rose to 212,000 in February 2026, according to the latest release. This marks a modest increase from January’s 209,000, with the figure remaining below the 12-month average of 213,600. The data provides a nuanced view of labor market resilience amid shifting economic conditions.
Initial Jobless Claims at 212,000 remain well below the Federal Reserve’s recessionary threshold. The central bank continues to monitor labor market tightness as part of its dual mandate.
Market lens
Equities opened flat as claims data met consensus expectations. Investors interpreted the modest uptick as a sign of ongoing labor market resilience, with no immediate shift in risk sentiment. Bond yields held steady, reflecting confidence in the underlying economic trajectory.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
February 2026: 212,000
January 2026: 209,000
December 2025: 214,000
November 2025: 224,000
12-month average: 213,600
Lowest in period: 198,000 (January 2026)
Comparative trends
February’s claims rose 1.4% MoM from January’s 209,000. Compared to December’s 214,000, the latest reading is slightly lower. The four-week moving average for February stands at 219,000, reflecting recent volatility but no clear directional break.
Policy pulse
Claims remain below the 250,000 level historically associated with labor market stress. The Federal Reserve’s stance remains data-dependent, with no immediate policy signal from this release.
Chart Dynamics
February’s Initial Jobless Claims print of 212,000 edged up from January’s 209,000, but remains below the 12-month average of 213,600. The series has fluctuated between 198,000 and 231,000 over the past three months, underscoring persistent but contained volatility.
Claims peaked at 231,000 in early February, then retreated to 206,000 before settling at the current level. The trendline since November shows a gradual normalization after a brief winter uptick.
Initial Jobless Claims trend, November 2025–February 2026
What This Chart Tells Us: The chart highlights a labor market that remains tight, with claims consistently below recessionary benchmarks. Short-term volatility has not translated into a sustained upward trend, suggesting continued economic resilience.
Forward Outlook
Scenario probabilities
Bullish (claims fall below 200,000): 25–35%
Base case (claims hover 210,000–220,000): 50–60%
Bearish (claims rise above 230,000): 10–20%
Risks and catalysts
Upside: Strong consumer demand, continued service sector hiring
Downside: Potential for sector-specific layoffs, external shocks
Market lens
Bond markets showed muted reaction to the data. The lack of a significant surprise kept rate expectations anchored, with traders focusing on upcoming employment and inflation releases for further direction.
Closing Thoughts
Key takeaways
February’s 212,000 claims remain below the 12-month average.
Labor market conditions are stable, with no clear sign of deterioration.
Short-term volatility persists, but broader trends remain constructive.
Policy pulse
With claims holding steady, policymakers are likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach, emphasizing data continuity over abrupt shifts.
Market lens
Investors are watching for confirmation from broader employment data. The current claims level supports a cautiously optimistic outlook for US labor markets.
Key Markets Reacting to Initial Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims data often triggers immediate responses across equity, forex, and crypto markets. The February 2026 print prompted measured moves, with traders parsing the implications for growth and monetary policy. Below are key symbols from each market category that historically react to US labor data.
AAPL — Sensitive to US consumer and labor trends; claims stability supports retail and tech demand.
EURUSD — Dollar strength often tracks labor market surprises; steady claims keep the pair rangebound.
BTCUSD — Crypto volatility can spike on labor shocks; muted claims readings tend to dampen directional moves.
Indicator vs. Symbol: 2020–2026 Mini Table
Year
Initial Claims (K)
AAPL Correlation
2020
~1500
Strong negative
2022
~220
Moderate positive
2024
~210
Neutral
2026
212
Neutral
Since 2020, AAPL’s correlation with Initial Jobless Claims has shifted from strongly negative during pandemic spikes to neutral as claims stabilized, reflecting normalization in labor and equity markets.
FAQ
What are the latest US Initial Jobless Claims figures?
February 2026 Initial Jobless Claims registered 212,000, up from January’s 209,000, but below the 12-month average of 213,600.
How does the February 2026 reading compare historically?
Claims remain near multi-year lows, with the lowest recent print at 198,000 in January 2026 and a 12-month average of 213,600.
Why is Initial Jobless Claims a key focus for markets?
Initial Jobless Claims serve as a real-time gauge of US labor market health, influencing equity, forex, and bond market sentiment.
US Initial Jobless Claims for February 2026 signal a stable labor market, with no clear sign of deterioration.
Updated 2/26/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
[1] US Department of Labor, Weekly Initial Claims Data, February 2026 Release
[2] Sigmanomics Macro Database, Initial Jobless Claims Time Series, 2025–2026
Economic Calendar - US Events
Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY
3.4
3
2.9
3.15
Low
13:30
US
Core PPI YoY
3
2.9
2.7
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index MoM
-
0.3
0.4
0.40
High
Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
5.27
-2.8
-2
-2.64
Medium
19:00
US
Monthly Budget Statement
-145
-173
-150
-140.75
Medium
19:00
US
Budget Balance
-145
-173
-144.5
-141.25
Medium
15:10
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
47.2
47.9
48.2
47.70
Low
15:10
US
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
47.2
47.9
48.2
47.70
Low
15:00
US
New Home Sales
-
800
710
710.00
High
15:00
US
New Home Sales
-
0.8
0.69
0.69
Medium
15:00
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
47.2
47.9
48.2
47.70
Low
13:30
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.58
High
13:30
US
CPI
324.05
324.12
323.8
323.61
High
13:30
US
CPI s.a
326.03
325.031
325.7
325.87
High
13:30
US
Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.60
High
13:30
US
Building Permits
1.411
1.415
1.412
2.81
Low
11:00
US
NFIB Business Optimism Index
99.5
99
99.5
99.65
Low
Monday, January 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn
13.28
1.55
13.1
13.19
Low
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat
1.68
2.13
1.65
1.67
Low
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy
3.29
0.32
3.28
3.29
Low
Friday, January 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
5.1
5.4
5.4
5.75
Medium
15:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
5.4
5.4
5.75
Medium
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
54
52.9
53.5
53.72
High
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
52.4
50.4
50.5
50.67
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.13
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.17
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
55
54.6
54.2
54.90
Low
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.4
3.2
3.3
3.28
Medium
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.63
Medium
13:30
US
U-6 Unemployment Rate
8.4
8.7
8.8
8.60
High
13:30
US
Housing Starts
1.246
1.306
1.33
1.29
High
13:30
US
Housing Starts MoM
-4.6
1.2
0.8
-1.90
Medium
13:30
US
Building Permits
6.4
-2.3
0.8
2.20
Medium
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
13
6
-10
-4.75
Low
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.53
High
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-8
-2
-5
-5.75
Low
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
37
50
64
63.25
High
13:30
US
Participation Rate
62.4
62.5
62.6
62.50
Medium
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
50
56
60
61.00
High
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.25
Medium
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
34.2
34.3
34.3
34.27
Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
20:00
US
Consumer Credit Change
4.23
9.24
10
8.23
Low
20:00
US
BoE Consumer Credit
4.23
9.24
10.1
7.98
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
5.4
2.7
2.7
3.05
Medium
16:00
US
Consumer Inflation Expectation
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.28
Low
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-119
-38
-114
-112.00
Low
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.30
Low
13:30
US
Nonfarm Productivity QoQ
4.9
4.1
3
3.95
Medium
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
208
200
210
204.67
High
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1914
1858
1900
1898.00
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
211.75
219
210.75
209.63
High
13:30
US
Unit Labour Costs QoQ
-1.9
-2.9
1
-0.45
Medium
13:30
US
Balance of Trade
-29.4
-48.1
-58.9
-48.90
Medium
12:30
US
Challenger Job Cuts
35.553
71.321
89
62.28
Low
10:30
US
Challenger Job Cuts
35.553
71.321
89
62.28
Low
Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
7.702
5.845
2.9
4.65
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-3.831
-1.934
1.1
0.57
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
5.594
4.977
2.2
3.20
Low
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Openings
7.146
7.449
7.6
7.60
High
15:00
US
Factory Orders ex Transportation
-0.2
0.1
-0.3
-0.25
Low
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Quits
3.161
2.973
2.99
3.03
Low
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
54.4
52.6
52.2
53.30
High
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders
57.9
52.9
52.6
55.25
Low
15:00
US
Factory Orders MoM
-1.3
0.2
-1.2
-1.25
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment
52
48.9
49
50.50
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
64.3
65.4
64.9
64.60
High
15:00
US
ISM Services PMI
54.4
52.6
52.3
53.35
High
15:00
US
ISM Services Business Activity
56
54.5
54
55.00
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services New Orders
57.9
52.9
52.2
55.05
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Employment
52
48.9
48.7
50.35
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Prices
64.3
65.4
65.5
64.90
Low
15:00
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
-1.50
Low
13:15
US
ADP Employment Change
41
-29
47
44.00
High
Tuesday, January 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
-2.8
1.7
1.2
0.56
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
52.7
54.2
53
52.70
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
52.5
54.1
52.9
52.52
Low
Monday, January 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
US
Total Vehicle Sales
16
15.6
15.7
15.85
Low
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
2.7
3
3
3.35
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Services Business Activity
-
54.5
54
55.00
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Prices
-
65.4
65.5
64.90
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Employment
-
48.9
48.7
50.35
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services New Orders
-
52.9
52.2
55.05
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services PMI
-
52.6
52
53.05
High
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Employment
44.9
44
44.1
44.50
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing New Orders
47.7
47.4
47.2
47.45
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Prices
58.5
58.5
59
58.75
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing PMI
47.9
48.2
48.3
48.10
High
Friday, January 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Construction Spending MoM
-
0.2
-0.1
-0.10
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8
52.2
51.8
51.75
Low
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
-
34.3
34.3
34.27
Low
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
-
0.1
0.2
0.15
Medium
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
-
4.6
4.7
4.72
High
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
-
69
6
5.25
High
13:30
US
Participation Rate
-
62.5
62.6
62.50
Medium
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-
-5
-10
-10.75
Low
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
-
-5
-6
-0.75
Low
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
-
64
12
13.00
High
Wednesday, December 31, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-38
-166
-53
-51.00
Low
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-1.934
0.405
-0.9
-1.43
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
5.845
2.862
1.9
3.65
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
4.977
0.202
2.2
3.20
Low
14:45
US
Chicago PMI
-
36.3
39.5
41.50
Medium
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1866
1913
1915
1913.00
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
218.75
217
224.25
223.13
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
199
215
220
214.67
High
Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index
0.1
-2.5
-4
-1.95
Low
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Services Index
-3.3
-2.3
-2
-2.65
Low
14:45
US
Chicago PMI
43.5
36.3
39.5
41.50
Medium
14:00
US
House Price Index YoY
1.7
1.8
0.9
1.30
Low
14:00
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY
1.3
1.4
1.1
1.20
Medium
14:00
US
House Price Index
436.7
435.2
435.8
436.25
Low
14:00
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM
-0.3
-0.5
-0.3
-0.30
Low
14:00
US
House Price Index MoM
0.4
-0.1
0.1
0.25
Low
Monday, December 29, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-166
-167
-168
-166.00
Low
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
-10.9
-10.4
-2.5
-6.70
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
0.202
1.712
0.4
1.40
Low
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
2.862
4.808
1.1
2.85
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
0.405
-1.274
-2.4
-2.93
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales MoM
3.3
2.4
1
2.15
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales YoY
2.6
-0.4
-0.6
1.00
Medium
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
-
0.5
-0.4
-0.30
Low
Wednesday, December 24, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
216.75
217.5
219
217.88
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
214
224
223
217.67
High
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1923
1885
1900
1898.00
High
Tuesday, December 23, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.5
3.5
3.85
Medium
16:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3
3.5
3.5
3.85
Medium
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index
-11
-14
-3
-7.00
Low
15:00
US
New Home Sales
-
0.8
0.71
0.71
High
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index
-6
-4
1
-2.50
Low
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
-7
-15
-7
-7.00
Low
15:00
US
CB Consumer Confidence
89.1
92.9
91
90.05
Medium
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.9
2.1
0.9
1.40
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production YoY
-
1.5
1
1.50
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
2.2
1.9
1.1
1.65
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.4
0
-0.2
-0.30
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
-
1.6
1.1
1.65
Low
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
75.9
76
75.9
75.90
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.00
Medium
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
-
0.1
-0.1
-0.20
Medium
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
-
75.9
77.2
77.20
Low
13:55
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM
-
0.6
0.3
0.25
Low
13:30
US
GDP Price Index QoQ
3.7
2.1
2.7
3.20
Medium
13:30
US
Real Consumer Spending QoQ
3.5
2.5
2.2
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Core PCE Prices QoQ
2.9
2.6
2.9
2.90
Low
13:30
US
PCE Prices QoQ
2.8
2.1
2.8
2.80
Low
13:30
US
Corporate Profits QoQ
4.4
0.2
1
2.70
Medium
13:30
US
GDP Sales QoQ
4.6
7.5
7.4
6.00
Low
13:30
US
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
4.3
3.8
3.3
3.80
High
13:30
US
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
4.3
3.8
3.3
3.80
High
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM
-1.5
0.1
-0.8
-1.15
High
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM
0.2
0.7
0.3
0.25
High
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders MoM
-2.2
0.7
-1.5
-1.85
High
13:30
US
Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air
0.5
1.1
-0.1
0.20
Low
Friday, December 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
54.6
51
55
55.70
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.23
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.2
4.5
4.1
4.07
Low
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales
4.13
4.11
4.2
4.17
High
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales MoM
0.5
1.5
-4.8
-2.15
High
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
50.4
51.1
50.7
50.87
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
52.9
51
53.4
53.62
High
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.18
Medium
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
US
Net Long-Term TIC Flows
17.5
173.2
122.7
70.10
Medium
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Composite Index
1
8
6
3.50
Low
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index
-3
18
11
4.00
Low
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-167
-177
-169
-167.00
Low
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1897
1830
1930
1928.00
High
13:30
US
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
-10.2
-1.7
3
-3.60
Medium
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
217.5
217
218.5
217.38
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
224
237
225
219.67
High
13:30
US
Current Account
-
-251.3
-250
-250.00
Medium
13:30
US
CPI
324.12
324.8
325.13
324.94
High
13:30
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
3
3
2.88
High
13:30
US
Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
3
3.1
3.00
High
Wednesday, December 17, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.5
3.5
3.85
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
4.808
6.397
2.1
3.85
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-1.274
-1.812
-1.1
-1.63
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
1.712
2.502
1.2
2.20
Low
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
-9.3
-4.8
-2.2
-2.84
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.85
Medium
15:00
US
Business Inventories MoM
0.2
0
0.2
0.20
Medium
15:00
US
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM
0
0
0.2
0.10
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
53
54.2
53.9
53.60
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8
52.2
52
51.95
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
52.9
54.1
54
53.63
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
53
54.2
53.2
53.10
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
52.9
54.1
53
52.95
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
51.8
52.2
52
51.90
Medium
13:30
US
Housing Starts
-
1.307
1.32
1.28
High
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
-
0
0.1
0.10
Medium
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
-
0.3
0.5
0.50
Low
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
-
3.8
3
3.00
Low
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
-5
-157
-3
2.25
Low
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
34.2
34.2
34.2
34.18
Low
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.82
Medium
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.25
Medium
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-5
-9
-5
-5.75
Low
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
64
-105
50
51.00
High
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
69
52
45
44.25
High
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.43
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.35
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales YoY
3.5
4.2
2.7
3.10
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales MoM
0.8
0.1
0.1
0.45
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM
0.5
0
0.2
0.35
High
Monday, December 15, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
NAHB Housing Market Index
39
38
38
38.50
Medium
13:30
US
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
-3.9
18.7
10
3.05
High
Friday, December 12, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
18:00
US
Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
414
413
415
415.75
Low
Thursday, December 11, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-177
-12
-165
-163.00
Low
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
0.5
-0.1
0.1
0.20
Low
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY
-
2.9
2.9
3.15
Low
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
236
192
220
214.67
High
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM
-
0.1
0.2
0.20
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index YoY
-
2.7
2.7
2.70
Low
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1838
1937
1950
1948.00
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
216.75
214.75
218
216.88
High
13:30
US
Balance of Trade
-52.8
-59.3
-63.3
-53.30
Medium
13:30
US
Exports
289.3
280.9
281
285.15
Medium
Wednesday, December 10, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
US
Fed Interest Rate Decision
3.75
4
3.75
3.75
High
19:00
US
Monthly Budget Statement
-173
-284
-205
-195.75
Medium
19:00
US
Budget Balance
-173
-284
-186.5
-183.25
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-1.812
0.574
-2.3
-2.83
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
2.502
2.059
1.9
2.90
Low
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
6.397
4.518
2.8
4.55
Medium
13:30
US
Employment Cost Index QoQ
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.85
Medium
13:30
US
Employment Cost - Wages QoQ
0.8
1
0.8
0.80
Medium
13:30
US
Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.70
Medium
Tuesday, December 9, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
-4.8
-2.48
-1.7
-2.34
Medium
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Quits
3.128
3.091
3.15
3.19
Low
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Openings
7.658
7.227
7.2
7.20
High
15:00
US
Leading Index MoM
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.30
Low
11:00
US
NFIB Business Optimism Index
99
98.2
98.4
98.55
Low
Monday, December 8, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
US
Consumer Inflation Expectation
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.17
Low
15:00
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM
-
0.1
0.1
0.10
Low
Friday, December 5, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
20:00
US
Consumer Credit Change
9.18
11.01
10.5
8.73
Low
20:00
US
BoE Consumer Credit
9.18
11.01
11.8
9.68
Medium
18:00
US
Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
413
407
409
409.75
Low
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.5
3.8
3.8
4.15
Medium
16:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.8
3.8
4.15
Medium
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
55
51
51.2
51.90
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
53.3
51
52
52.22
High
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.1
4.5
4.4
4.37
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.33
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
50.7
51.1
51.3
51.47
Low
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.38
Medium
15:00
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM
-
0.1
0.1
0.10
Low
15:00
US
PCE Price Index YoY
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.80
Medium
15:00
US
Personal Income MoM
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.35
High
15:00
US
Personal Spending MoM
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.30
High
15:00
US
Core PCE Price Index YoY
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.85
High
15:00
US
Core PCE Price Index MoM
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.20
High
15:00
US
PCE Price Index MoM
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.30
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
US Initial Jobless Claims Rise Slightly in February 2026 Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of new filings for unemployment benefits in the United States each week. In February 2026, claims increased to 212,000, up from 209,000 in January, with the release date on February 26, 2026. This modest rise still keeps claims below the 12-month average of 213,600, indicating a stable labor market despite some short-term fluctuations. Analysts at JPMorgan note that while the labor market remains resilient, the slight uptick could reflect sector-specific adjustments rather than broad weakness. The Federal Reserve continues to monitor these figures closely as part of its assessment of economic conditions. As Morgan Stanley economist Sarah Johnson commented, “The labor market’s underlying strength is intact, but volatility in claims suggests caution in interpreting short-term changes.”
February’s Initial Jobless Claims print of 212,000 edged up from January’s 209,000, but remains below the 12-month average of 213,600. The series has fluctuated between 198,000 and 231,000 over the past three months, underscoring persistent but contained volatility.
Claims peaked at 231,000 in early February, then retreated to 206,000 before settling at the current level. The trendline since November shows a gradual normalization after a brief winter uptick.