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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Initial Jobless Claims fell to 206K in August 2026
FMPWeeklyReleased August 2026
US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 206K in August 2026, down 6K from July's 212K reading. The reading matched expectations. Over the past 3 months, Initial Jobless Claims averaged 211.67K, vs 208K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 30th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
206
Actual
210
Consensus
212
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±169.24 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 409.52
Actual: 206
Error: +203.52
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims (United States) was reported at 206 thousand in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 210 thousand by 4 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 212 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 121,304 thousand, ranging from 187 thousand to 259,000 thousand across 91 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a weekly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 68,805 thousand, down from the prior three at 137,400 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 107,663 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 113,035 thousand). In August readings over the past 3 years, Initial Jobless Claims has averaged 116,886 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 169 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Barkin Speech (Aug 25) and S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY (Aug 25).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Initial Jobless Claims - US
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About Initial Jobless Claims — United States
DEFINITION
Initial Jobless Claims is a key economic indicator that measures the number of individuals who have filed for unemployment benefits for the first time. This data is released weekly by the U.S. Department of Labor and is used to gauge the health of the job market and overall economy. A higher number of initial jobless claims may indicate a weakening job market, while a lower number may suggest a stronger economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it provides valuable insights into the current state of the labor market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released weekly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 206,000 Thousands. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 212,000 Thousands. Before that (Aug 2026): 200,000 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, August 24, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.08 | 0.06 | 0.1 | 0.17 | Medium |
| Tuesday, August 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index | 442.4 | 442.8 | 442.65 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.65 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.60 | Medium | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index YoY | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.15 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 5 | 7 | 11.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.628 | 0.62 | 0.60 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | -3 | -1 | 2.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | 8 | 7 | 15.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence | 90.8 | 90.3 | 90.90 | High | |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -3.28 | 1.9 | 1.90 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, August 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.9 | 0.6 | -0.15 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.80 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | 3.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Corporate Profits QoQ | 0.5 | 0.7 | -2.35 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.15 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.15 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.20 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.53 | -1.7 | -2.25 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.688 | -1 | -1.09 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 4.405 | 1.9 | 2.29 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -101.4 | -99 | -99.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 204 | 203 | 202.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 206 | 208 | 210.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | -0.4 | 0 | 0.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1799 | 1811 | 1814.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -101.41 | -99.9 | -99.90 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 14 | 14.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 9 | 8 | 8.00 | Low | |