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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Manufacturing Production YoY fell to 0.9% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Manufacturing Production YoY fell to 0.9% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.3% from July's 1.2% reading. The reading missed the 1.1% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.41%. Over the past 3 months, Manufacturing Production YoY averaged 1.15%, vs 1.07% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 39th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.9
Actual
1.1
Consensus
1.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.32 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 1.05
Actual: 0.9
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Manufacturing Production YoY (United States) was reported at 0.9% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.1% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.5%, ranging from 0.9% to 2.4% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.07%, down from the prior three at 1.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.44%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.12%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Manufacturing Production YoY has averaged 0.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with NZD/USD (Bearish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.33%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include API Crude Oil Stock Change (Sep 22) and UN General Assembly (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Manufacturing Production YoY - US
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About Manufacturing Production YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Manufacturing Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total output of goods produced by the manufacturing sector over a 12-month period. This indicator is used to assess the health and growth of the manufacturing industry, which is a key driver of economic activity. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in production, while a negative YoY growth suggests a decline. This information is valuable for investors, policymakers, and businesses in making informed decisions about the state of the economy and potential investment opportunities.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.9 %, consensus 1.1 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 1.2 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 1.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bearish NZD, r=-0.56) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.04 | 0.08 | 0.2 | 0.09 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.015 | 3.97 | 3.909 | 3.96 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | -5 | 11 | 9 | 4.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | 0 | -8 | -6 | -7.50 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -2 | 4 | 5 | 2.00 | Low |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.5 | -0.50 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | 53.6 | 54.05 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 56 | 55.2 | 55.90 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 56.5 | 56 | 56.15 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.6 | -0.60 | Medium | |
| Thursday, September 24, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 196 | 201 | 196.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Current Account | -226.8 | -255 | -255.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 203.25 | 203 | 202.13 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1730 | 1750 | 1760.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | -2.7 | 4.3 | -2.7 | -2.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.394 | 1.433 | 1.394 | 1.39 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.607 | 0.62 | 0.62 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 9 | 15.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 10 | 5 | 7.50 | Low | |