United States Manufacturing Production YOY — Forecast & His… | Sigmanomics
United States Manufacturing Production YoY
Latest Release
1.3
Actual
2
Consensus
2.4
Previous
US Manufacturing Production YoY rose 1.30% in February 2026, down from January’s 2.40%, signaling a notable slowdown in annual growth. February’s 1.30% print marks the lowest reading since November 2025 and reflects cooling industrial momentum after a late-2025 rebound. Market reaction was muted as equities and the dollar remained steady, with focus shifting to upcoming PMI and durable goods data. Updated 3/16/26
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Manufacturing Production YOY - US
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Key Takeaways: US Manufacturing Production YoY rose 1.3% in February 2026, down from January’s 2.4%. The 12-month trend signals cooling momentum after a late-2025 rebound. Market reaction muted as figures align with broader industrial deceleration.
US Manufacturing Production YoY: February 2026 Data Signals Slower Growth
February’s US Manufacturing Production YoY print shows a notable deceleration, with the annual growth rate easing to 1.3%. This follows January’s 2.4% gain and marks the lowest reading since November 2025. The data, released March 16, 2026, underscores a shift in industrial momentum as the sector adjusts to evolving demand and cost pressures.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
Automotive output: +0.22pp
Machinery: +0.13pp
Electronics: -0.09pp
Food processing: +0.11pp
Policy pulse
The 1.3% YoY increase in February trails the sector’s 2025 average of 1.35%. The Federal Reserve’s industrial production target range remains above current readings, reflecting subdued manufacturing momentum.
Market lens
Equities showed little immediate movement after the release, with industrials trading flat. Investors weighed the softer print against recent resilience in consumer sectors, suggesting limited spillover for now.
Foundational Indicators
Drivers this month
Capacity utilization: 78.4% (Jan: 78.7%)
ISM Manufacturing PMI: 50.2 (Jan: 50.7)
Durable goods orders: +0.6% MoM
Policy pulse
Manufacturing output growth remains below pre-pandemic norms. The Fed’s latest Beige Book cited “modest to flat” factory activity, reinforcing a cautious policy stance.
Market lens
Bond yields edged lower as traders interpreted the data as a sign of easing industrial inflationary pressures. The dollar index was little changed.
Chart Dynamics
February’s 1.3% YoY gain marks a sharp slowdown from January’s 2.4% and sits below the 12-month average of 1.35%. The last time growth was this subdued was November 2025, when the index registered 1.5%.
Recent volatility stands out: After dipping to 0.5% in June 2025, manufacturing rebounded to 2.1% in December, then cooled again. The current print breaks a two-month streak above 2%.
Manufacturing Production YoY trend (May 2025 – Feb 2026)
What This Chart Tells Us: The YoY trend highlights a sector in flux—rebounding late last year, then losing steam in early 2026. The latest reading signals renewed caution, with output growth now trailing both recent highs and the post-pandemic average.
Forward Outlook
Scenario probabilities
Bullish (growth rebounds above 2%): 25–35%
Base case (1–1.5% range): 50–60%
Bearish (slips below 1%): 10–20%
Drivers this month
Export demand: stable
Input costs: easing
Labor supply: unchanged
Policy pulse
With manufacturing growth below the Fed’s long-term trend, policymakers are watching for signs of sustained weakness before adjusting guidance.
Market lens
Futures pricing remains steady as traders see little near-term catalyst from the latest data. The focus shifts to upcoming PMI and durable goods releases for further direction.
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Muted investor response reflects consensus that manufacturing’s deceleration is part of a broader normalization. The sector’s near-term path hinges on export trends and domestic demand resilience.
Policy pulse
Fed officials have signaled patience, emphasizing the need for more data before considering any shift in industrial policy stance.
Key Markets Reacting to Manufacturing Production YoY
US Manufacturing Production YoY data influences a range of asset classes, from equities to forex and crypto. The following symbols, verified from Sigmanomics, show notable historical correlations with manufacturing trends. Each market segment responds differently to shifts in industrial output, reflecting diverse risk and growth dynamics.
AAPL (Apple Inc.): Sensitive to supply chain and US factory output cycles.
EURUSD: Moves on US industrial data surprises, reflecting transatlantic growth differentials.
BTCUSD: Tends to rally during US manufacturing slowdowns as investors seek alternative assets.
Year
Manufacturing Production YoY (%)
AAPL (YoY % change)
2020
-6.5
80.7
2021
7.2
34.0
2022
3.1
-26.8
2023
1.0
48.2
2024
0.7
49.0
2025
1.5
48.6
2026 (YTD)
1.3
12.4
This table shows that while AAPL’s annual returns do not always move in lockstep with US manufacturing output, periods of strong industrial growth often coincide with robust equity performance, especially in post-pandemic years.
FAQ
What does the latest US Manufacturing Production YoY figure indicate?
The February 2026 YoY growth rate of 1.3% signals a slowdown from January’s 2.4%, reflecting softer industrial momentum.
How does this data affect financial markets?
Markets responded calmly, with equities and the dollar little changed, as the print matched expectations for a cooling sector.
Why is Manufacturing Production YoY important for economic analysis?
This indicator tracks annual changes in US factory output, offering insight into industrial health and broader economic cycles.
US Manufacturing Production YoY’s February print underscores a sector in transition, with growth cooling after a late-2025 rebound.
Updated 3/16/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Federal Reserve, G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, March 2026 release.
Sigmanomics Economic Data Database, US Manufacturing Production YoY, accessed March 16, 2026.
US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Manufacturing Sector Statistics, 2020–2026.
Economic Calendar - US Events
Thursday, January 22, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Core PCE Price Index YoY
-
2.8
2.8
2.80
High
15:00
US
Personal Spending MoM
-
0.4
0.4
0.40
High
15:00
US
Core PCE Price Index MoM
-
0.2
0.1
0.10
High
15:00
US
PCE Price Index MoM
-
0.3
0.2
0.20
Medium
15:00
US
Core PCE Price Index MoM
-
0.2
0.1
0.10
High
15:00
US
PCE Price Index YoY
-
2.8
2.7
2.70
Medium
13:30
US
GDP Price Index QoQ
-
2.1
3.7
4.20
Medium
13:30
US
Core PCE Prices QoQ
-
2.6
2.9
2.90
Low
13:30
US
PCE Prices QoQ
-
2.1
2.8
2.80
Low
13:30
US
Corporate Profits QoQ
-
0.2
4.4
6.10
Low
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
-
198
195
188.33
High
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
-
1884
1880
1873.17
High
13:30
US
Real Consumer Spending QoQ
-
2.5
3.5
4.15
Low
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
-
205
203
200.58
High
13:30
US
GDP Sales QoQ
-
7.5
4.6
3.20
Low
13:30
US
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-
3.8
4.3
4.80
High
13:30
US
Real Consumer Spending
-
2.5
3.5
3.50
Low
13:30
US
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
-
3.8
4.3
4.80
High
13:30
US
Core PCE Price Index YoY
-
2.8
2.8
2.80
Low
13:30
US
Core PCE Price Index YoY
-
2.8
2.8
2.80
Low
13:30
US
PCE Price Index YoY
-
2.8
2.8
2.80
Medium
13:30
US
PCE Price Index YoY
-
2.8
2.8
2.80
Medium
13:30
US
Personal Spending MoM
-
0.3
0.2
0.20
High
13:30
US
Personal Income MoM
-
0.4
0.3
0.30
High
13:30
US
Core PCE Price Index MoM
-
0.2
0.1
0.10
High
13:30
US
PCE Price Index MoM
-
0.3
0.2
0.20
Medium
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
5.3
5.3
5.73
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales MoM
-
3.3
1.4
2.55
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales YoY
-
2.6
0.2
1.80
Medium
15:00
US
Construction Spending MoM
-
0.2
-0.1
-0.10
Low
Friday, January 16, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
-
4.2
4.2
4.23
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
-
52.9
54
54.00
High
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
-
50.4
52.4
52.80
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
-
3.2
3.4
3.47
Low
15:00
US
NAHB Housing Market Index
37
39
40
38.50
Medium
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
-
54.6
55
55.10
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
2
2.5
2.7
2.80
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production MoM
0.2
0.3
-0.2
-0.15
Low
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
76.3
76
76
76.08
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production YoY
2
1.9
2
2.25
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.13
Medium
Thursday, January 15, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-71
-119
-90
-85.17
Low
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
198
207
215
208.33
High
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
0.4
0
-0.1
0.15
Medium
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.25
Low
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
-
0.3
0.5
0.35
Low
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
-
0
0.1
0.35
Medium
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
-
3.8
3
3.00
Low
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
-
3.8
3
3.00
Low
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1884
1903
1890
1883.17
High
13:30
US
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
7.7
-3.7
1
4.35
High
13:30
US
Export Prices MoM
-
0
-0.1
-0.10
Medium
13:30
US
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
12.6
-8.8
-2
-1.65
Medium
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
205
211.5
215
212.58
High
Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
5.3
5.1
5.1
5.53
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
5.1
5.1
5.53
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
-0.029
5.594
-0.2
0.86
Low
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
3.391
-3.831
-2.2
-2.26
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
8.977
7.702
4
6.29
Medium
15:10
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
-
47.9
47.4
46.90
Low
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales
4.35
4.14
4.21
4.23
High
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales MoM
5.1
0.7
-1.6
1.40
High
15:00
US
Business Inventories MoM
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.25
Medium
15:00
US
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM
0.3
0.1
-0.1
0.10
Low
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY
3.4
3
2.9
3.15
Low
13:30
US
Core PPI YoY
3
2.9
2.7
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index MoM
-
0.3
0.4
0.40
High
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM
-
0.1
0.2
0.20
Low
13:30
US
Core PPI MoM
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.25
Medium
13:30
US
Core PPI YoY
-
2.6
2.7
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index YoY
-
2.7
2.7
2.70
Low
13:30
US
Current Account
-226.4
-249.2
-238.4
-232.40
Medium
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.45
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales YoY
3.3
3.3
3
3.15
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales MoM
0.6
-0.1
0.4
0.50
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.25
High
Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
5.27
-2.8
-2
-1.18
Medium
19:00
US
Monthly Budget Statement
-145
-173
-150
-147.50
Medium
19:00
US
Budget Balance
-145
-173
-144.5
-144.75
Medium
15:10
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
47.2
47.9
48.2
47.70
Low
15:10
US
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
47.2
47.9
48.2
47.70
Low
15:00
US
New Home Sales
-
800
710
710.00
High
15:00
US
New Home Sales
-
0.8
0.69
0.69
Medium
15:00
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
47.2
47.9
48.2
47.70
Low
13:30
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.58
High
13:30
US
CPI
324.05
324.12
323.8
323.61
High
13:30
US
CPI s.a
326.03
325.031
325.7
325.87
High
13:30
US
Building Permits
1.411
1.415
1.412
2.81
Low
13:30
US
Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.60
High
11:00
US
NFIB Business Optimism Index
99.5
99
99.5
99.50
Low
Monday, January 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn
13.28
1.55
13.1
13.19
Low
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat
1.68
2.13
1.65
1.67
Low
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy
3.29
0.32
3.28
3.29
Low
Friday, January 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
5.1
5.4
5.4
5.83
Medium
15:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
5.4
5.4
5.83
Medium
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
54
52.9
53.5
53.50
High
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
52.4
50.4
50.5
50.90
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.17
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.23
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
55
54.6
54.2
54.30
Low
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.4
3.2
3.3
3.32
Medium
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.70
Medium
13:30
US
U-6 Unemployment Rate
8.4
8.7
8.8
8.60
High
13:30
US
Housing Starts
1.246
1.306
1.33
1.29
High
13:30
US
Housing Starts MoM
-4.6
1.2
0.8
-1.90
Medium
13:30
US
Building Permits
6.4
-2.3
0.8
2.20
Medium
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
13
6
-10
1.50
Low
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.45
High
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-8
-2
-5
-6.50
Low
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
37
50
64
50.50
High
13:30
US
Participation Rate
62.4
62.5
62.6
62.50
Medium
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
50
56
60
55.00
High
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.30
Medium
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
34.2
34.3
34.3
34.25
Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
20:00
US
Consumer Credit Change
4.23
9.24
10
7.12
Low
20:00
US
BoE Consumer Credit
4.23
9.24
10.1
7.17
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
5.4
2.7
2.7
3.13
Medium
16:00
US
Consumer Inflation Expectation
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.30
Low
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-119
-38
-114
-109.17
Low
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.20
Low
13:30
US
Nonfarm Productivity QoQ
4.9
4.1
3
3.95
Medium
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
208
200
210
203.33
High
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1914
1858
1900
1893.17
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
211.75
219
210.75
208.33
High
13:30
US
Unit Labour Costs QoQ
-1.9
-2.9
1
-0.45
Medium
13:30
US
Balance of Trade
-29.4
-48.1
-58.9
-44.15
Medium
12:30
US
Challenger Job Cuts
35.553
71.321
89
62.28
Low
10:30
US
Challenger Job Cuts
35.553
71.321
89
62.28
Low
Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
7.702
5.845
2.9
5.19
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-3.831
-1.934
1.1
1.04
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
5.594
4.977
2.2
3.26
Low
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Openings
7.146
7.449
7.6
7.37
High
15:00
US
Factory Orders ex Transportation
-0.2
0.1
-0.3
-0.25
Low
15:00
US
Factory Orders MoM
-1.3
0.2
-1.2
-1.25
Medium
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Quits
3.161
2.973
2.99
3.08
Low
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
54.4
52.6
52.2
53.30
High
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders
57.9
52.9
52.6
55.25
Low
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment
52
48.9
49
50.50
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
64.3
65.4
64.9
64.60
High
15:00
US
ISM Services PMI
54.4
52.6
52.3
53.35
High
15:00
US
ISM Services Business Activity
56
54.5
54
55.00
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services New Orders
57.9
52.9
52.2
55.05
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Employment
52
48.9
48.7
50.35
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Prices
64.3
65.4
65.5
64.90
Low
15:00
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
-1.50
Low
13:15
US
ADP Employment Change
41
-29
47
44.00
High
Tuesday, January 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
-2.8
1.7
1.2
2.02
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
52.7
54.2
53
52.85
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
52.5
54.1
52.9
52.70
Low
Monday, January 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
US
Total Vehicle Sales
16
15.6
15.7
15.85
Low
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
2.7
3
3
3.43
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Services Prices
-
65.4
65.5
64.90
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Employment
-
48.9
48.7
50.35
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services New Orders
-
52.9
52.2
55.05
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services PMI
-
52.6
52
53.05
High
15:00
US
ISM Services Business Activity
-
54.5
54
55.00
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Employment
44.9
44
44.1
44.50
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing New Orders
47.7
47.4
47.2
47.45
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Prices
58.5
58.5
59
58.75
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing PMI
47.9
48.2
48.3
48.10
High
Friday, January 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Construction Spending MoM
-
0.2
-0.1
-0.10
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8
52.2
51.8
51.80
Low
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
-
34.3
34.3
34.25
Low
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
-
0.1
0.2
0.20
Medium
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
-
4.6
4.7
4.65
High
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
-
69
6
-7.50
High
13:30
US
Participation Rate
-
62.5
62.6
62.50
Medium
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-
-5
-10
-11.50
Low
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
-
-5
-6
5.50
Low
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
-
64
12
7.00
High
Wednesday, December 31, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-38
-166
-53
-48.17
Low
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-1.934
0.405
-0.9
-0.96
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
5.845
2.862
1.9
4.19
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
4.977
0.202
2.2
3.26
Low
14:45
US
Chicago PMI
-
36.3
39.5
41.50
Medium
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1866
1913
1915
1908.17
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
218.75
217
224.25
221.83
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
199
215
220
213.33
High
Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index
0.1
-2.5
-4
-1.95
Low
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Services Index
-3.3
-2.3
-2
-2.65
Low
14:45
US
Chicago PMI
43.5
36.3
39.5
41.50
Medium
14:00
US
House Price Index YoY
1.7
1.8
0.9
1.30
Low
14:00
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY
1.3
1.4
1.1
1.20
Medium
14:00
US
House Price Index
436.7
435.2
435.8
436.25
Low
14:00
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM
-0.3
-0.5
-0.3
-0.30
Low
14:00
US
House Price Index MoM
0.4
-0.1
0.1
0.25
Low
Monday, December 29, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-166
-167
-168
-163.17
Low
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
-10.9
-10.4
-2.5
-6.70
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
0.202
1.712
0.4
1.46
Low
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
2.862
4.808
1.1
3.39
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
0.405
-1.274
-2.4
-2.46
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales MoM
3.3
2.4
1
2.15
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales YoY
2.6
-0.4
-0.6
1.00
Medium
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
-
0.5
-0.4
-0.40
Low
Wednesday, December 24, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
216.75
217.5
219
216.58
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
214
224
223
216.33
High
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1923
1885
1900
1893.17
High
Tuesday, December 23, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.5
3.5
3.93
Medium
16:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3
3.5
3.5
3.93
Medium
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index
-11
-14
-3
-7.00
Low
15:00
US
New Home Sales
-
0.8
0.71
0.71
High
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index
-6
-4
1
-2.50
Low
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
-7
-15
-7
-7.00
Low
15:00
US
CB Consumer Confidence
89.1
92.9
91
90.05
Medium
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.9
2.1
0.9
1.15
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production YoY
-
1.5
1
1.25
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.4
0
-0.2
-0.15
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
2.2
1.9
1.1
1.20
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
-
1.6
1.1
1.20
Low
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
75.9
76
75.9
75.98
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.13
Medium
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
-
0.1
-0.1
-0.07
Medium
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
-
75.9
77.2
77.28
Low
13:55
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM
-
0.6
0.3
0.25
Low
13:30
US
GDP Price Index QoQ
3.7
2.1
2.7
3.20
Medium
13:30
US
Real Consumer Spending QoQ
3.5
2.5
2.2
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Core PCE Prices QoQ
2.9
2.6
2.9
2.90
Low
13:30
US
PCE Prices QoQ
2.8
2.1
2.8
2.80
Low
13:30
US
Corporate Profits QoQ
4.4
0.2
1
2.70
Medium
13:30
US
GDP Sales QoQ
4.6
7.5
7.4
6.00
Low
13:30
US
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
4.3
3.8
3.3
3.80
High
13:30
US
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
4.3
3.8
3.3
3.80
High
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM
-1.5
0.1
-0.8
-1.15
High
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM
0.2
0.7
0.3
0.25
High
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders MoM
-2.2
0.7
-1.5
-1.85
High
13:30
US
Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air
0.5
1.1
-0.1
0.20
Low
Friday, December 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
54.6
51
55
55.10
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.28
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.2
4.5
4.1
4.13
Low
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales
4.13
4.11
4.2
4.22
High
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales MoM
0.5
1.5
-4.8
-1.80
High
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
50.4
51.1
50.7
51.10
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
52.9
51
53.4
53.40
High
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.23
Medium
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
US
Net Long-Term TIC Flows
17.5
173.2
122.7
70.10
Medium
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Composite Index
1
8
6
3.50
Low
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index
-3
18
11
4.00
Low
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-167
-177
-169
-164.17
Low
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1897
1830
1930
1923.17
High
13:30
US
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
-10.2
-1.7
3
3.35
Medium
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
217.5
217
218.5
216.08
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
224
237
225
218.33
High
13:30
US
Current Account
-
-251.3
-250
-244.00
Medium
13:30
US
CPI
324.12
324.8
325.13
324.94
High
13:30
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
3
3
2.88
High
13:30
US
Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
3
3.1
3.00
High
Wednesday, December 17, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.5
3.5
3.93
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
4.808
6.397
2.1
4.39
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-1.274
-1.812
-1.1
-1.16
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
1.712
2.502
1.2
2.26
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
US Manufacturing Production Shows Slower Growth in February Manufacturing Production measures the total output of factories and plants across the United States, reflecting industrial activity over time. In February 2026, US manufacturing production increased by 1.30% compared to the same month last year, down from January’s 2.40% rise, with the data released on March 16, 2026. This slowdown suggests cooling momentum in the sector after a rebound late last year, as factories face shifting demand and cost pressures. Analysts at Morgan Stanley note that “the moderation in manufacturing growth aligns with broader signs of industrial deceleration and cautious business investment.” Despite the softer pace, the sector remains a key indicator for economic health and Federal Reserve policy decisions. Market reaction was muted, reflecting expectations for a gradual normalization rather than a sharp downturn.
February’s 1.3% YoY gain marks a sharp slowdown from January’s 2.4% and sits below the 12-month average of 1.35%. The last time growth was this subdued was November 2025, when the index registered 1.5%.
Recent volatility stands out: After dipping to 0.5% in June 2025, manufacturing rebounded to 2.1% in December, then cooled again. The current print breaks a two-month streak above 2%.