Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FinlandFinland Balance of Trade fell to -1.15B in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Finland Balance of Trade fell to -1.15B in August 2026, released October 2026, down 0.46B from July's -0.69B reading. The reading missed the -0.62B consensus by 0.53B. Balance of Trade has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 0.58B, vs -0.33B in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 36 months.
Latest Release
-1.15
Actual
-0.62
Consensus
-0.69
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.67 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -0.43
Actual: -1.15
Error: +0.72
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Finland) was reported at -1.15 billion in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.62 billion by 0.53 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.69 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.26 billion, ranging from -1.15 billion to 1.89 billion across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.00 billion, up from the prior three at -0.60 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.80 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.54 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -0.71 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.67 billion.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Balance of Trade - FI
Loading chart data...
About Balance of Trade — Finland
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -1.15 M, consensus -0.62 M. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -0.74 M. Before that (Jun 2026): 1.89 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.55) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - FI Events
| Thursday, October 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | FI | Industrial Production YoY | 0.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.30 | Low |
| 06:00 | FI | Balance of Trade | -1.15 | -0.69 | -0.62 | -0.89 | Low |
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | FI | Current Account | -0.2 | -0.6 | -0.10 | Low | |