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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FinlandFinland Balance of Trade fell to -0.91B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Finland Balance of Trade fell to -0.91B in May 2026, released July 2026, down 0.61B from April's -0.3B reading. The reading missed the -0.4B consensus by 0.51B. Balance of Trade has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -0.04B, vs -0.47B in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 36 months.
Latest Release
-0.91
Actual
-0.4
Consensus
-0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.51 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -0.47
Actual: -0.91
Error: +0.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Finland) was reported at -0.91 billion in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.40 billion by 0.51 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.30 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.14 billion, ranging from -0.91 billion to 1.30 billion across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.60 billion, down from the prior three at -0.12 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.62 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.43 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -0.21 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.51 billion.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - FI
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About Balance of Trade — Finland
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -0.91 M, consensus -0.4 M. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -0.33 M. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.25 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.56) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - FI Events
| Monday, July 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | FI | Current Account | -2.3 | -1.6 | -1.95 | Low | |
| Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | FI | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | -0.3 | -0.30 | Low | |
| 05:00 | FI | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.1 | 2 | 2.05 | Low | |