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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FinlandFinland Business Confidence climbed to 7.0% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Finland Business Confidence climbed to 7.0% in July 2026, up 3.0% from June's 4.0% reading. The print exceeded the 2.0% consensus by 5.0%. Business Confidence has now risen for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 3.5%, vs 1.0% in the prior 3-month window. Business Confidence is now the highest in 36 months.
Latest Release
7
Actual
2
Consensus
4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 3.5
Actual: 7
Error: -3.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Finland) was reported at 7% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2% by 5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.64%, ranging from -6% to 7% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.67%, up from the prior three at 0.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.6%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.29%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged -3.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 27, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Business Confidence - FI
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About Business Confidence — Finland
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 7 %, consensus 2 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 4 %. Before that (May 2026): 3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - FI Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | FI | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1 | 1.75 | Low |
| 05:00 | FI | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 05:00 | FI | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.9 | 0.9 | -0.1 | 0.40 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | FI | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 05:00 | FI | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Low |