Finland’s Current Account surplus narrowed sharply to EUR 0.10 billion in November 2025, well below the EUR 0.70 billion consensus and the prior month’s EUR 0.30 billion. This figure is the lowest since June 2025, when the account nearly balanced at -0.20 billion. The Sigmanomics database shows that Finland’s external position remains vulnerable to global trade slowdowns and energy price volatility.

Drivers this month

• Exports slowed amid weaker demand from EU partners and China.
• Imports remained elevated due to higher energy and intermediate goods costs.
• Services balance improved slightly but was insufficient to offset goods deficit.

Policy pulse

The current account reading is below the long-run average surplus of approximately EUR 0.50 billion recorded over the past 12 months. This suggests a moderation in Finland’s external resilience, coinciding with tighter monetary policy in the Eurozone and rising borrowing costs.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The EUR/FI currency pair weakened by 0.15% within the first hour post-release, reflecting market concerns over Finland’s external balance sustainability amid global uncertainties.

Core macroeconomic indicators underpinning Finland’s current account reveal mixed signals. GDP growth slowed to 1.10% YoY in Q3 2025, down from 1.80% in Q2, while inflation held steady at 2.30%. The unemployment rate remained stable at 6.40%, but wage growth decelerated, dampening domestic demand.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The European Central Bank’s recent rate hikes have tightened financial conditions, increasing borrowing costs for Finnish exporters and importers alike. The Sigmanomics database notes a 25 basis point rise in 2-year government bond yields in Finland since September 2025, contributing to cautious corporate investment.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Finland’s fiscal stance remains moderately expansionary, with a government deficit of 1.80% of GDP projected for 2025. Increased public spending on green infrastructure supports long-term competitiveness but adds pressure on external financing needs.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Heightened geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions continue to weigh on Finland’s trade flows. Energy price volatility, especially in natural gas, has increased import costs, negatively impacting the goods balance.

Historical data from the Sigmanomics database shows that Finland’s current account has fluctuated between deficits and surpluses over the past year. The sharp deficit of EUR -3.30 billion in May 2025 was an outlier linked to extraordinary import spikes. Since then, the account has mostly remained in modest surplus territory, with the recent dip suggesting renewed external headwinds.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: Finnish government bond yields rose by 10 basis points post-release, indicating increased risk premia linked to external balance concerns. The EUR/FI currency pair also showed mild depreciation, consistent with the weaker current account print.

Looking ahead, Finland’s current account trajectory depends on several factors. The Sigmanomics database models three scenarios for Q4 2025 and beyond:

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Global demand recovers, boosting exports by 5% YoY.
• Energy prices stabilize, reducing import costs.
• Current account surplus rebounds to EUR 0.80 billion by Q1 2026.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Moderate export growth of 2% YoY amid uneven global recovery.
• Energy prices remain volatile but manageable.
• Current account stabilizes near EUR 0.20 billion surplus.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Global slowdown deepens, exports contract by 3% YoY.
• Energy price spikes increase import bill.
• Current account slips into deficit near EUR -0.30 billion.

Monetary tightening in the Eurozone and ongoing geopolitical risks remain key downside risks. Conversely, fiscal support and diversification of export markets could provide upside momentum.

Finland’s November 2025 Current Account reading signals a cautious external environment. The sharp decline from recent highs underscores vulnerabilities to global trade shocks and financial tightening. Policymakers should monitor these trends closely, balancing fiscal support with structural reforms to enhance export competitiveness and energy efficiency.

While the base case suggests modest stabilization, the risks remain skewed to the downside given geopolitical uncertainties and inflationary pressures. Investors and market participants should prepare for continued volatility in Finland’s external balances and related financial markets.

Insight: Finland’s Current Account vs. EURUSD Since 2020

Since 2020, Finland’s current account surplus has shown a positive correlation (~0.45) with the EURUSD exchange rate. Periods of rising surpluses often coincide with EURUSD appreciation, reflecting stronger Eurozone external positions. Notably, the May 2025 deficit aligned with a EURUSD dip below 1.05, underscoring sensitivity to trade shocks and risk sentiment.