Finland Export Prices YoY: November 2025 Report and Macro Outlook
Finland’s export prices declined by 1.30% YoY in November, missing estimates and deepening the downward trend seen since mid-2025. This signals ongoing external price pressures amid global demand softness and currency fluctuations. Monetary tightening and geopolitical risks add complexity to Finland’s export outlook, with financial markets reacting cautiously. Structural shifts in global trade and energy markets will shape the medium-term trajectory.
Table of Contents
Finland’s export prices YoY fell by 1.30% in November 2025, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This decline is sharper than the -1.00% recorded in October and well below the consensus estimate of -0.60%. The persistent downward trend in export prices reflects a challenging external environment marked by subdued global demand and competitive pressures.
Drivers this month
- Energy prices easing, reducing export cost bases but also export price levels.
- Euro appreciation against key trading partners, pressuring price competitiveness.
- Weak demand from major export markets, especially in machinery and electronics.
Policy pulse
The export price decline sits amid ongoing European Central Bank (ECB) tightening, with key rates rising to combat inflation. Finland’s export price weakness complicates the inflation outlook, potentially limiting pass-through to domestic inflation but pressuring corporate margins.
Market lens
Following the release, the EUR/USD pair dipped 0.15%, reflecting concerns over export competitiveness. Finnish equity indices showed mild declines, while bond yields edged higher on inflation uncertainty.
Export prices are a critical indicator of external competitiveness and inflationary pressures. Finland’s export price index has shifted from positive territory in early 2025 to a sustained negative trend since May. The Sigmanomics database shows a peak of 1.90% YoY in March 2025, followed by steep declines to -2.70% in August, before a partial recovery to -1.30% in November.
Historical comparisons
- November 2025’s -1.30% contrasts with 0.90% in January 2025, highlighting a rapid deterioration.
- The August trough of -2.70% was the lowest since 2022, signaling deep export price pressures.
- Compared to the 12-month average of -0.60%, the current print is significantly weaker.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The ECB’s restrictive stance, with rates at 4.50%, has strengthened the euro, dampening export price competitiveness. Higher borrowing costs also weigh on export-oriented firms’ investment plans, potentially reducing supply-side responsiveness.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Finland’s fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with increased support for innovation and green technologies. However, export price weakness may reduce tax revenues from trade-related sectors, pressuring budget balances in 2026.
This chart highlights a clear downward trend in Finland’s export prices over the past eight months. The persistent negative growth signals weakening external demand and euro strength, which may constrain export volumes and corporate profitability in the near term.
Drivers this month
- Euro appreciation by 2.10% against USD since October, reducing price competitiveness.
- Global semiconductor price declines impacting Finnish electronics exports.
- Energy cost normalization lowering export price inputs but also export invoice values.
Policy pulse
The export price decline challenges the ECB’s inflation targeting, as weaker external prices may limit imported inflation. The central bank faces a delicate balance between supporting growth and containing inflationary pressures.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/USD slipped 0.15% post-release, while Finnish government bonds saw a 3 basis point yield uptick reflecting inflation uncertainty. Equity markets showed mild risk-off sentiment.
Looking ahead, Finland’s export prices face a complex set of influences. The base case scenario projects a gradual stabilization around -1.00% YoY through Q1 2026, assuming moderate global demand recovery and stable euro exchange rates. Bullish and bearish scenarios outline wider potential outcomes.
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (25% probability): Global demand rebounds sharply, euro weakens by 3%, export prices rise to 0.50% YoY by mid-2026.
- Base (50% probability): Demand growth remains modest, euro stable, export prices hover near -1.00% YoY.
- Bearish (25% probability): Geopolitical tensions escalate, euro strengthens further, export prices fall to -2.00% YoY or lower.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Heightened tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions remain key risks. Energy price volatility and trade policy shifts could further pressure export prices. Finland’s reliance on machinery and electronics exports makes it vulnerable to global tech cycles.
Structural & long-run trends
Long-term, Finland’s export sector is adapting to green transition demands and digitalization. These structural shifts may support higher-value exports and pricing power, partially offsetting cyclical pressures.
Finland’s November 2025 export prices YoY print of -1.30% underscores ongoing external challenges amid a complex macroeconomic landscape. The persistent decline since mid-2025 reflects subdued global demand, euro strength, and sector-specific pressures. Monetary tightening and geopolitical risks add layers of uncertainty. However, structural transformation in Finland’s export base offers a potential buffer over the medium term.
Market participants should monitor currency movements, ECB policy signals, and global demand indicators closely. Export price trends will remain a key barometer for Finland’s external competitiveness and inflation dynamics in 2026.
Key Markets Likely to React to Export Prices YoY
Export prices directly impact sectors sensitive to trade competitiveness and currency fluctuations. The following tradable symbols historically track Finland’s export price dynamics and provide market signals for investors and policymakers.
- NOKIA – Finland’s flagship telecom stock, sensitive to export price shifts in electronics.
- EURUSD – Euro-dollar exchange rate, a key driver of export price competitiveness.
- UPM – Major Finnish paper and bio-products exporter, impacted by global commodity prices.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reflects risk sentiment that can influence export demand indirectly.
- EURSEK – Euro-Swedish krona pair, relevant for regional trade competitiveness comparisons.
Export Prices YoY vs. NOKIA Stock Price Since 2020
Since 2020, Finland’s export prices and NOKIA’s stock price have shown a moderate positive correlation (r≈0.45). Periods of rising export prices often coincide with NOKIA’s share price gains, reflecting improved global demand for telecom equipment. The recent export price decline since mid-2025 has coincided with NOKIA’s underperformance, underscoring export price sensitivity for Finnish tech exporters.
| Year | Avg Export Prices YoY (%) | NOKIA Avg Price (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 0.50 | 3.80 |
| 2021 | 1.20 | 4.50 |
| 2022 | -0.30 | 3.90 |
| 2023 | 0.80 | 4.70 |
| 2024 | -0.60 | 4.10 |
| 2025 (YTD) | -1.10 | 3.50 |
FAQ
- What does Finland’s Export Prices YoY indicate?
- Finland’s Export Prices YoY measures the annual change in prices received for exported goods, reflecting external competitiveness and inflationary pressures.
- How does the Export Prices YoY affect Finland’s economy?
- Changes in export prices influence trade balances, corporate profits, and inflation, impacting monetary policy and economic growth.
- What are the risks to Finland’s export prices outlook?
- Risks include global demand shocks, currency volatility, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain disruptions.
Takeaway: Finland’s export prices continue to face downward pressure amid global and currency headwinds, challenging growth and inflation outlooks, but structural shifts offer medium-term resilience.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 11/24/25
The November 2025 export prices YoY print of -1.30% marks a further decline from October’s -1.00% and remains below the 12-month average of -0.60%. This continuation of negative export price growth reflects persistent external headwinds and currency effects. The chart below illustrates the steady slide since the mid-year peak of 1.90% in March 2025.
Month-on-month, the export prices fell by 0.30 percentage points, signaling ongoing price pressure. The trend contrasts sharply with the first quarter of 2025, when export prices were positive and rising, indicating a shift in global trade dynamics and cost structures.