Finland Export Prices YoY: January Data Shows Narrowing Decline
Big-Picture Snapshot
- January’s export prices fell 1.1% YoY, improving from December’s -2.1%.
- Consensus estimate was -2.3% for January, making the actual print a positive surprise.
- Compared to August’s -2.7%, the pace of decline has moderated for five consecutive months.
- March 2025 saw export prices up 1.9% YoY, highlighting the shift from inflation to deflation over the past year.
Drivers this month
- Pulp and paper: -0.22pp
- Metals: -0.18pp
- Machinery: -0.11pp
Policy pulse
Export price deflation remains below the Bank of Finland’s price stability objectives, but the narrowing decline reduces pressure for immediate intervention.
Market lens
Finnish equities and the euro showed muted reaction to the data release. Market participants viewed the smaller-than-expected drop as a sign of stabilizing external demand, but persistent negative prints continue to weigh on sentiment.Foundational Indicators
- January 2026: -1.1% YoY
- December 2025: -2.1% YoY
- October 2025: -1.0% YoY
- August 2025: -2.7% YoY
- April 2025: 0.9% YoY
Drivers this month
- Energy exports: -0.09pp
- Transport equipment: -0.07pp
Policy pulse
With export prices still negative, the reading remains below the central bank’s medium-term target for price growth in traded goods.
Market lens
Bond yields held steady after the release. Investors appear to be waiting for a sustained return to positive export price growth before adjusting positions.Chart Dynamics
What This Chart Tells Us: The chart highlights a persistent, though easing, deflationary trend in Finnish export prices. The improvement from August’s trough to January’s reading signals that external price pressures are stabilizing, but the sector has yet to return to growth territory. The data points to a cautious recovery, with risks still tilted toward subdued export price momentum in the near term.
Drivers this month
- Wood products: -0.08pp
- Chemicals: -0.06pp
Policy pulse
Export price deflation remains a concern for policymakers, but the slower pace of decline may reduce urgency for new stimulus.
Market lens
Currency markets showed limited volatility post-release. The euro’s muted response reflects market expectations for a gradual normalization in Finnish export pricing.Forward Outlook
- Bullish scenario (20–30%): Export prices return to positive YoY growth by Q2 2026, driven by a rebound in global demand and commodity prices.
- Base scenario (50–60%): Export prices remain negative but continue to narrow, stabilizing near zero by mid-2026 as external headwinds ease.
- Bearish scenario (15–25%): Renewed global slowdown or commodity weakness pushes export price deflation deeper, with readings below -2% persisting through H1 2026.
Data sourced from Statistics Finland and Sigmanomics[1]. The YoY indicator measures the percentage change in the country’s export price index compared to the same month a year earlier, capturing broad shifts in external pricing power.
Drivers this month
- Global demand: neutral
- Commodity prices: slightly positive
- Exchange rate: stable
Policy pulse
With deflation easing, policymakers are likely to monitor for further stabilization before considering any adjustments to trade or monetary policy.
Market lens
Exporters remain cautious despite the improved print. The sector’s outlook hinges on sustained recovery in external markets and commodity cycles.Closing Thoughts
Finland’s export price index continues to signal deflation, but the pace of decline has slowed for five straight months. The January reading, outperforming both the previous month and consensus, points to tentative stabilization. However, the sector remains vulnerable to external shocks, and a return to positive growth is not yet in sight.
Drivers this month
- Electronics: -0.04pp
- Food exports: -0.03pp
Policy pulse
Authorities are expected to maintain a watchful stance, with no immediate policy shifts anticipated given the gradual improvement.
Market lens
Investor sentiment remains cautious. The focus will be on upcoming data to confirm whether the recent trend toward stabilization can be sustained.Key Markets Reacting to Export Prices YoY
Movements in Finland’s export prices can ripple across equity, currency, and crypto markets. Exporters and investors track these figures for clues on trade competitiveness, profit margins, and broader economic momentum. Below are select tradable symbols with direct or indirect exposure to Finnish export dynamics.
- AAPL – Apple’s global supply chain and European sales are sensitive to shifts in export pricing and currency trends.
- EURUSD – The euro-dollar pair often reacts to changes in eurozone export competitiveness and price indices.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price can reflect risk sentiment shifts tied to macroeconomic data, including export trends.
| Year | Export Prices YoY (%) | EURUSD (avg) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -0.8 | 1.14 |
| 2021 | 3.2 | 1.18 |
| 2022 | 7.5 | 1.05 |
| 2023 | 2.1 | 1.08 |
| 2024 | -1.3 | 1.09 |
| 2025 | -1.1 | 1.07 |
Since 2020, periods of rising Finnish export prices have broadly coincided with a stronger euro, while deflationary phases have seen the EURUSD pair under pressure.
FAQ: Finland Export Prices YoY: January Data Shows Narrowing Decline
- What does the latest Finland Export Prices YoY data show?
- January’s export prices fell 1.1% year-over-year, a slower decline than December’s -2.1%, signaling easing deflation in Finnish exports.
- How does this result compare to recent trends?
- The -1.1% print marks five consecutive months of moderating declines, outperforming both the previous month and consensus estimates.
- Why is Export Prices YoY important for Finland’s economy?
- Export Prices YoY tracks changes in the prices of goods Finland sells abroad, impacting trade competitiveness, corporate profits, and monetary policy decisions.
Finland’s export price deflation is easing, but a return to growth remains elusive.
Updated 2/26/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- [1] Statistics Finland, Export Price Index, January 2026 release; Sigmanomics Economic Database, accessed 2/26/26.
January’s -1.1% YoY print marks a significant improvement from December’s -2.1% and stands above the 12-month average of -1.3%. The trend since August, when export prices bottomed at -2.7%, has been one of steady moderation in deflationary pressure. Over the last six months, only May 2025 saw a sharper drop at -1.4%.
Compared to March 2025’s 1.9% YoY increase, the current reading underscores the reversal from export price inflation to deflation. The narrowing gap between monthly prints suggests stabilization, but the index remains below zero for the eighth consecutive month.