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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FinlandFinland Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.7% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Finland Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.7% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 1.0% from August's -0.3% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.6% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.06%, vs 0.08% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 88th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.7
Actual
0.6
Consensus
-0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.18 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.56
Actual: 0.7
Error: -0.14
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Finland) was reported at 0.7% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.6% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.21%, ranging from -0.4% to 1.2% across 20 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.33%, up from the prior three at 0%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.49%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.27%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.46%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.19%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 4, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM - FI
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM — Finland
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country over a one-month period. It takes into account the prices of a wide range of consumer goods and services, providing a comprehensive view of inflation trends. This indicator is used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to monitor and analyze the impact of inflation on the economy and make informed decisions. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 0.7 %, consensus 0.6 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 0.6 %. Before that (Aug 2026): -0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - FI Events
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | FI | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | FI | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |