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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FinlandFinland Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM fell to -0.3% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Finland Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM fell to -0.3% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.5% from July's 0.2% reading. The print came in hotter than the -0.4% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.27%. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM averaged -0.14%, vs 0.45% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 11th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.3
Actual
-0.4
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -0.52
Actual: -0.3
Error: -0.22
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Finland) was reported at -0.3% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.4% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.18%, ranging from -0.4% to 1.2% across 21 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.17%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.47%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.27%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has averaged -0.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 2, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM - FI
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM — Finland
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country over a one-month period. It takes into account the prices of a wide range of consumer goods and services, providing a comprehensive view of inflation trends. This indicator is used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to monitor and analyze the impact of inflation on the economy and make informed decisions. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -0.4 %, consensus -0.4 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -0.4 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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