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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FinlandFinland Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.2% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Finland Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.2% in July 2026, up 0.6% from June's -0.4% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.3% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.34%. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.1%, vs 0.51% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 51st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.3
Consensus
-0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.17 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.27
Actual: 0.2
Error: +0.07
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Finland) was reported at 0.2% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.19%, ranging from -0.4% to 1.2% across 21 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.17%, down from the prior three at 0.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.47%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.21%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has averaged -0.18%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.17%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 1, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM - FI
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM — Finland
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country over a one-month period. It takes into account the prices of a wide range of consumer goods and services, providing a comprehensive view of inflation trends. This indicator is used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to monitor and analyze the impact of inflation on the economy and make informed decisions. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.4 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - FI Events
| Friday, August 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | FI | Balance of Trade | -0.91 | -0.82 | -0.82 | Low | |